What was the largest congressional polling miss since turn of century?

[Matty]

Since the year 2000, what was the largest polling miss in either a senate race or a house race?

[Holmes]

Rasmussen's final Hawaii poll in 2010 with Inouye + 13 comes to mind. Miss of 40%.

[Pollster]

There obviously have been bigger ones, but the freshest in many people's memories (especially mine, since I am one of the many pollsters who got it wrong) was Warner's razor thin victory in VA in 2014 despite the final polling average being Warner +9 or 10.

[Mike Thick]

Here you go.

[Rjjr77]

Here you go.

nah juked internals dont count

[The Other Castro]

2014 VA-7 GOP primary: McLaughlin poll had Cantor +34, result was Brat +11. Error of 45 points.

[choclatechip45]

The polling for both of Linda McMahons races were quite bad. They had it much closer than it was. I remember Rachel Maddow being quite shocked how early it was called for Murphy.

[TheSaint250]

While it wasn't the worst, VA 2014.

[The Other Castro]

Based on the early returns, the Democratic Senate primary for Alabama looks like a pretty horrible miss (close to 70 points off).

[Don Vito Corleone]

Based on the early returns, the Democratic Senate primary for Alabama looks like a pretty horrible miss (close to 70 points off).

I mean, there was only one poll taken, maybe between then and now the voters realized that this Kennedy and Those Kennedy's are different.

[Mike Thick]

Here you go.

nah juked internals dont count

Even the jukedest of juked internals shouldn't be off by 96 points.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Polling in Kansas in 2014 was garbage. The RCP average and most polls showed Orman ahead, and Roberts (who was never going to lose) won by double digits on election day.

Didn't the polls also screw up on the governor's race in Kansas that year?