2020: President Hillary Clinton(D-NY) vs Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)

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Hillary Clinton selected Senator Cory Booker for her VP, giving her a boost among African American voters, and on election day they and College Educated Whites came into the Democratic Column and Working Class Whites left the party en masse, producing an interesting Victory for the former Secretary of State. 

Evan McMullin, the last hope of the Never Trump movement, succeeded in taking his home state of Utah, but failed to send the election to the House of Representatives.

Fmr. SOS Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Senator Cory Booker(D-NJ):  276 EVs
Donald Trump(R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence(R-IN):  256 EVs
Evan McMullin(I-UT)/Mindy Finn(I-TX):  6 EVs


4 years later President Hillary faces an incredibly tough reelection battle against Moderate Republican Governor Charlie Baker(R-MA) and Conservative Governor Nikki Haley(R-SC), with Evan McMullin sitting out this round and endorsing Charlie Baker to stop Hillary Clinton.

With her approval in the mid 40s, how does she fare?  Post maps and discuss.

[Kamala]

Charlie Baker is just a more moderate Romney. I think he'd be uninspiring to the base and suffer many of the same faults Romney did, which would lead to Clinton at least regaining some ground in the Midwest, while losing GA and probably NC.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Ignoring the fact that she might have gotten a primary challenge, here's what I think:

Baker's more centrist appeal would allow him to make big inroads in suburbs that Hillary Clinton crushed Donald trump in. She would fail to break 60% in any state except DC. Baker would be the first Republican since George HW Bush to win any counties in Massachusetts, at least winning Plymouth County. He also makes a half-hearted play for the GOP's fools gold, NJ, but still falls short.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Clinton/Booker: 45.4%, 150 EVs
Baker/Haley: 52.2%, 388 EVs

[mvd10]

Basically whites in Northern/Democratic states become more Republican while whites in Southern/Republican states turn out less or vote more Democratic. States like TN, LA, MS, CT, WA and OR become much closer.

[Kingpoleon]

324: Gov. Charlie Baker/Sen. Mia Love - 50.4%
214: Pres. Hillary Clinton/VP Tim Kaine - 44.9%