2020 = 1992?

[SingingAnalyst]

McAuliffe/Stabenow 43% / 368 EV
Trump/Pence 37% / 157 EV
Kasich/Collins 19% / 13 EV

[RINO Tom]

If Kasich is getting 19%, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are CLEARLY going Dem plurality.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I seriously doubt the Democrats will nominate a Bill Clinton-style centrist in 2020 (seriously, I don't think people understand how right wing Bill Clinton was for a Democrat), especially since a lot of the party thinks the Dem lost since they weren't progressive enough.

[SingingAnalyst]

If Kasich is getting 19%, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are CLEARLY going Dem plurality.

I agree about Ohio and possibly Iowa.

[mcmikk]

I seriously doubt the Democrats will nominate a Bill Clinton-style centrist in 2020 (seriously, I don't think people understand how right wing Bill Clinton was for a Democrat), especially since a lot of the party thinks the Dem lost since they weren't progressive enough.

[UWS]

If Kasich is getting 19%, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are CLEARLY going Dem plurality.

I agree about Ohio and possibly Iowa.

If Kasich runs as an Independent, he would hand Ohio to the Democrats be dividing the local conservative vote since he is Governor there.

[SingingAnalyst]

If Kasich is getting 19%, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are CLEARLY going Dem plurality.

I agree about Ohio and possibly Iowa.

If Kasich runs as an Independent, he would hand Ohio to the Democrats be dividing the local conservative vote since he is Governor there.

Thanks, I fixed Ohio in the OP.

[Senator-elect Spark]

WRONG.

[President Johnson]

No. If there is any redux, it's either 1980 or 2004.

[RINO Tom]

These were states where Hillary got over 40% of the vote but lost:

Mississippi: 40.11%
South Carolina: 40.67%
Iowa: 41.74%
Texas: 43.24%
Ohio: 43.56%
Arizona: 45.13%
Georgia: 45.64%
North Carolina: 46.17%
Wisconsin: 46.45%
Michigan: 47.27%
Pennsylvania: 47.46%
Florida: 47.82%

Kasich would only have to take enough of Trump's support to get him below that number to flip each of those states ... I honestly think they might all flip if Kasich is making that huge of an inroad nationally.

[AN63093]

I voted "no" for the reasons RINO Tom gave.

In your scenario, if Kasich is pulling 19% of the PV, then more states would flip D.  GOP would win the plains states, AL, some Upper South states, and that's all.

[Bidenworth2020]

no, 92 was about the economy

[Pericles]

It'll be 1980.

[mcmikk]

No. If there is any redux, it's either 1980 or 2004.

[GGover]

It'll be 1980.

[MillennialModerate]

More like 1980... in reverse.

[Don Vito Corleone]

More like 1980... in reverse.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It'll be 1980.

[Mr. Smith]

1992 in reverse was the outcome of a Clinton presidency.

[dw93]

No, because I don't think a third party candidate will have the impact that Ross Perot had on the '92 election, as the country is much more polarized now and people saying yes to this poll don't seem to realize that. Had the big eared billionaire not run, 1992 would've been a closer race, but one that Bill Clinton still would've won none the less (I've said it once and I'll say it again, PEROT WAS NOT A SPOILER!!!) Plus, Bush 41 was running for a fourth consecutive term for his party, something that no party was able to pull off since the 1940s, whereas Trump (or someone else) will be running for a second consecutive term for the GOP in 2020.

I think worst case for the GOP, is that 2020 will be 1932 (which was pretty much the reverse of 1980), and this is whether Trump is still in office or not, as Pence will still have the stink of Trump on him and would most likely still see a primary challenge. If there is a third party candidate, they will see Johnson or Nader levels of support and won't effect the overall outcome at all.

Best case for the GOP, this will be 2004. They pick up one or two more states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, based on the 2016 margins , seem the most likely and possibly narrowly win the popular vote. I personally see a GOP victory in 2020 as  2012 parties reversed where they do worse in the electoral college and the popular vote but still win none the less, in which case all hell would probably break lose as the Dems would probably win the popular vote by more than 3 Million votes in this scenario.

[I’m not Stu]

Johnson or Nader levels of support and won't effect the overall outcome at all.

Nader was a spoiler in FL and NH. Johnson and Stein might have been spoilers in FL, MI, WI, and PA.

[dw93]

Johnson or Nader levels of support and won't effect the overall outcome at all.

Nader was a spoiler in FL and NH. Johnson and Stein might have been spoilers in FL, MI, WI, and PA.

Agreed with Nader in 2000, he didn't have any impact on 2004 though. I personally don't think Johnson and Stein were spoilers though.

[Santander]

McAuliffe/Stabenow and Kasich/Collins are horrifying tickets.