Sabato: Governors 2017-2018: The Democrats' Complicated Path to Big Gains

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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/governors-2017-2018-the-democrats-complicated-path-to-big-gains/

[Roblox]

Colorado should really be lean D.

Also, this article says they would likely move ME to lean R if Collins runs, that'd depend on her winning a primary, which is very much in doubt (see: PPP poll showing Mayhew leading 44-33). Of course, she would easily win a general.

Otherwise, this states the obvious: democrats need to do well in open seat swing state governors races in order to achieve big gains.

[Virginiá]

I would be just fine with modest gains if they were all in states critical to the next round of gerrymandering. In terms of the big picture, there are some states where winning the Governors office wouldn't really do much for the party long-term. Oklahoma I think might be an example, in addition to Massachusetts.

Lucky for us, we're the incumbent in PA, and MI, OH and FL are open seats.

[TheSaint250]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

[Nyvin]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

[TheSaint250]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

Ducey is pretty strong, and it doesn't seem like he'll attract a powerful opponent.  Deal is also very popular, and I just don't see Democrats winning the governorship.

[fluffypanther19]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

Ducey is pretty strong, and it doesn't seem like he'll attract a powerful opponent.  Deal is also very popular, and I just don't see Democrats winning the governorship.

i agree, also AZ and GA are trending Dem, but Reps still has the advantage in the short term. Gotta give the edge to Ducey and Deal

[Virginiá]

Ducey is pretty strong, and it doesn't seem like he'll attract a powerful opponent.  Deal is also very popular, and I just don't see Democrats winning the governorship.

i agree, also AZ and GA are trending Dem, but Reps still has the advantage in the short term. Gotta give the edge to Ducey and Deal

Deal is termed-out in 2018. As for his popularity, I'm not convinced that will actually matter for his successor. Presidential politics will always Trump any marginal effects a popular incumbent Governor can have for their party.

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AZ and GA are both Likely R imo, though I could see them flipping.

Also I really appreciate that the article didn't pull the typical "Rauner is gonna get Blanched" line from Atlas and has it as Pure Tossup.

[Nyvin]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

Ducey is pretty strong, and it doesn't seem like he'll attract a powerful opponent.  Deal is also very popular, and I just don't see Democrats winning the governorship.

Ducey's approvals are in the mid forties last I saw.   He's not a very strong incumbent in a state Trump won by 3.5%.    You don't need Chris Christie level ratings to lose a governor seat.

Deal is term limited so he's not even in the equation for 2018.

[mcmikk]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

Ducey is pretty strong, and it doesn't seem like he'll attract a powerful opponent.  Deal is also very popular, and I just don't see Democrats winning the governorship.

Most of Arizona's Democratic bench appears to be taking aim at Flake instead of Ducey.

[UncleSam]

Ya between Flake's weakness and the probable open seat due to Mccain's illness I doubt much of anyone in the AZ Dem party is looking at the governor's race. Even Stanton (Phoenix mayor), who would normally be a good fit for an executive branch type position, is looking more likely to challenge Sinema than he is to run for governor.

[Ebsy]

Democrats have a terrible bench lol, shouldn't shock anyone they won't win a whole lot in a TRUMP midterm.

Lack of a bench didn't seem to hurt the GOP overly much in 2010.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Democrats have a terrible bench lol, shouldn't shock anyone they won't win a whole lot in a TRUMP midterm.

Lack of a bench didn't seem to hurt the GOP overly much in 2010.

True. Scott Walker went from Milwaukee County Executive to Governor, Pat Toomey was a State Senator before he was a senator etc.

[Rookie Yinzer]

For Georgia-- Stacey Abrams the race is Safe R if Stacey Evans is the nominee is Likely R.

Georgia is just not voting in a black woman with no kids or husband who is advocating for the removal of the Stone Mountain carving.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

For Georgia-- Stacey Abrams the race is Safe R if Stacey Evans is the nominee is Likely R.

Georgia is just not voting in a black woman with no kids or husband who is advocating for the removal of the Stone Mountain carving.

This. The party really f^cked up not getting Carter to run again. And I wouldn't say Deal is popular, especially after he signed Campus Carry earlier this Spring. At best, no one really cares about him either way.

[McGovernForPrez]

Interestingly, Sabato seems to think that Cordray will run. Sure as hell hope he's right.

[Rookie Yinzer]

For Georgia-- Stacey Abrams the race is Safe R if Stacey Evans is the nominee is Likely R.

Georgia is just not voting in a black woman with no kids or husband who is advocating for the removal of the Stone Mountain carving.

This. The party really f^cked up not getting Carter to run again. And I wouldn't say Deal is popular, especially after he signed Campus Carry earlier this Spring. At best, no one really cares about him either way.

I'm all for diversity but I've been hoping there was a centrist white male willing to throw his hat in the ring. Abrams is going to get demolished.

[Gass3268]

AZ and GA are both Likely R imo, though I could see them flipping.

Also I really appreciate that the article didn't pull the typical "Rauner is gonna get Blanched" line from Atlas and has it as Pure Tossup.

He's not going to get Blanched, he's going to get Kirked.

[Suburbia]

For Georgia-- Stacey Abrams the race is Safe R if Stacey Evans is the nominee is Likely R.

Georgia is just not voting in a black woman with no kids or husband who is advocating for the removal of the Stone Mountain carving.

[MT Treasurer]

I know Sabato is often very incumbent-friendly and all of that, but those ratings make little sense if he thinks 2018 will be a Democratic wave year. I don't really see McCaskill and Rauner winning at the same time, for example.

Anyway, I think NH should be at least a Tossup, IL Lean D, MD a Tossup, OR Safe D and CT Lean D. The rest looks fine, though.

[pbrower2a]

The poor favorability rating for Scott Walker (R, WI) at 40-53 suggests that he could be set up for a tumble in 2018. Effective campaigning is good enough to cause most incumbent Governors and Senators with approval ratings of 43% to get half the vote, but the chance of winning rises rapidly or falls rapidly (47% approval means about a 95% chance of winning and 40% approval gives about a 95% chance of losing) as one gets away from 43%.

The 6-7% increase in vote share from early approval rating reflects that for an incumbent Governor or Senator, approval ratings drop significantly once one starts governing or legislating (about 6-7%) as one gets out of campaign mode and starts disappointing people with votes and policies. But one can campaign for re-election.

Someone in Wisconsin might be able to tell me what can go right for him between now and April of next year, let alone how well he can campaign on boilerplate reaction in a state in which Trump won (barely) but seems likely to pull any Republican incumbent down.

But this is new data. Larry Sabato would likely agree with me on this

[Rjjr77]

Democrats have a terrible bench lol, shouldn't shock anyone they won't win a whole lot in a TRUMP midterm.

Lack of a bench didn't seem to hurt the GOP overly much in 2010.

True. Scott Walker went from Milwaukee County Executive to Governor, Pat Toomey was a State Senator before he was a senator etc.

The fact he was a Republican County Executive in a reliably Democratic county is simply a miracle. Pat Toomey was also a Congressman, not a state senator and had primaried Arlen Specter. Those two are the exact definition of A-Listers.

Milwaukee County Executive is about the 2nd most powerful executive office in the state...