Title says it all. Harris and Booker are far and away the most popular Democratic contenders by January; no one else gets more than 1% in Iowa and everyone else drops out. How does the primary season play out?
My personal prediction:Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)I don't think this would be as big of a blowout as the map would suggest, as I think many, many states would be extremely close. I predict that Harris in general would do better with more educated and more affluent voters, while Booker does better with less educated and less affluent voters. Booker's main coalition is in the South, where he does well as a result of winning over not only a majority of lower-income African Americans, but also winning a majority of more conservative whites Democrats in the region. Appalachian voters in WV and KY overwhelmingly dislike both candidates (so no Clinton crushing Obama in 2008 numbers here). In fact, both candidates are disliked so much in West Virginia that a movement forms to write in Sanders instead of voting for either Harris or Booker, and write-ins + "no preference" wins a majority in the state. Harris nationally wins a slight majority of whites (but especially college-educated whites), allowing her to win all Great Plains and Mountain West states, albeit not nearly by Sanders v. Clinton margins. Harris is also dominant in the Northeast, where she wins every state except for Booker's home state of New Jersey. Overall, she wins a majority of Sanders supporters and "self-identifying liberals", who, although not particularly impressed by Harris, vote for her because she is slightly more progressive than Booker (which Harris takes every opportunity to put emphasis on).
Closest states (within 10%) are: NM, GA, MO, PA, OH, MI, AZ, NC, FL, NV, IL, IN, IA, KY, WV, and VA. I told you there were a lot! NM really could go either way.
