VA-SEN 2018: Which Republican can beat Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.)?

[Suburbia]

It will be a uphill political battle, but which Virginia Republican can defeat Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine in 2018? Corey Stewart, a Confederate-favorite candidate, and chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, is one of the early VA GOP frontrunners.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/carly-fiorina-2018-virginia-senate-run-234789

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/corey-stewart-to-announce-run-for-u-s-senate-on/article_9d2d1a17-25cc-5c17-b8dc-0d763d4e348f.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/04/gop_starts_to_eye_race_to_replace_kaine_in_senate_131960.html

[_]

Comstock is the only one who has any chance, she'd make it Lean D imo.

Stewart = Safe D

[Heisenberg]

Only Comstock, but she'd need a really good year, Kaine to make a mistake or two, and have a strong left wing third party take away enough votes. Even then, it'd be very narrow, and she's be doomed come 2024. I do think Comstock has a better chance at defeating Kaine than winning reelection. That's how screwed I think she is for her a House reelection, VA-10 2016 = VA-11 2006 or something.

[SNJ1985]

None. Virginia is on its way to being a Safe D state.

[SATW]

Comstock is the only one who would have a chance. Maybe Cantor could make it close-ish too. But that's about it, imo.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nobody. Only one that would make it even a little competetive is Gillespie, and would probably still get smacked at 53-44.

[NewYorkExpress]

Comstock, Gillespie, or Jim Webb (if he wanted to switch parties).

[JMT]

Comstock would be the best candidate for Republicans. I also don't think Fiorina would be terrible. But neither of them would defeat Kaine

[RedVA]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

[Roblox]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

Ah yes, Corey Stewart will make big gains in prince William due to home advantage, just like how trump did very well in New York City..../s

[Jeppe]

Uhh, not sure what kind of dimension you're living in, but most northern Virginians have absolutely no attachment to the Confederacy or the south in general. Reason being that a lot are transplants.

Education correlates with a higher turnout, which is why Virginia Democrats have been able to win key races even during midterm years. Northern Virginia as a result, punches above its weight electorally (even with its already large population), because of their high turnout.

Prince William County is also surprisingly diverse, with a robust and continually growing minority population in Woodbridge especially. I don't think Corey Stewart would come close to winning it, even with his home county advantage.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

It's possible, but still likely D.

[henster]

Probably Scott Taylor who is a former Navy Seal and ran way ahead of Trump in VA-02.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It'll be Lean/Likely D no matter who the Republican nominee is, and Safe D if someone like Stewart is the GOP nominee. Maybe Comstock or Scott Taylor would make it closer, but Kaine still wins by 5-8% even against them.

[MarkD]

I don't understand why so many people here keep bringing up Barbara Comstock as a potentially good nominee for VA-Sen. Comstock's voting record is so centrist, so far from the staunchly conservative wing, that most Virginia Republicans would be quick to label her a "RINO." She would be shunned by most Republicans in districts VA-01, VA-02, VA-05, VA-06, VA-07, and VA-09, because she is clearly not from the conservative wing. Either she would fail to get nominated because of being labeled a "RINO," or if the establishment makes her the nominee anyway, over much protestation from the conservative wing, then there will be massive numbers of rank-and-file GOP voters who will support some third-party alternative, maybe even the nominee of the Constitution Party.

[MT Treasurer]

NOTA (no Democrat is going to lose a federal race in VA). Safe D, and I doubt Comstock would do that well for the reasons MarkD already explained.

Democrats wouldn't have lost a special election in 2017 either had Clinton won, make no mistake about it. VA is beyond gone for Republicans, that this is even debatable is beyond me.

[Coraxion]

I don't understand why so many people here keep bringing up Barbara Comstock as a potentially good nominee for VA-Sen. Comstock's voting record is so centrist, so far from the staunchly conservative wing, that most Virginia Republicans would be quick to label her a "RINO." She would be shunned by most Republicans in districts VA-01, VA-02, VA-05, VA-06, VA-07, and VA-09, because she is clearly not from the conservative wing. Either she would fail to get nominated because of being labeled a "RINO," or if the establishment makes her the nominee anyway, over much protestation from the conservative wing, then there will be massive numbers of rank-and-file GOP voters who will support some third-party alternative, maybe even the nominee of the Constitution Party.

No. Other than her vote against the AHCA to save face electorally, she seems like a typical Republican teabagger to me.

[RedVA]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

Ah yes, Corey Stewart will make big gains in prince William due to home advantage, just like how trump did very well in New York City..../s

Considering Obama got 63% percent and Hillary got 59%, I'd say Trump improved in NY.  Also, remember that Virginia has not had a majority winner for governor or senator since 2012. All the wins since then have been pluralities. Also, this is likely to play out like the Georgia special election with max turnout everywhere. As for Northern Virginia not caring ablut confederate monuments, I live up here and even the liberal minorities here stand up for them. We all went into election night thinking Warner was going to win by 20 points or so. Kaine is not nearly as popular as Warner.  Warner won all but 6 out of hundreds of localities in VA, Kaine only won The typical democrat localities plus VA Beach.

[RedVA]

The daily caller posted an article saying how 65% of whites, 65% of latinos, and 44% of black americans want to keep the confederate statues, whereas 25% of whites, 24% of latinos, and 40% of black americans would like them to be removed.
This confirms what I have said earlier about minorities wanting those statues up as well as whites. (I would use a link but i don't have 20 posts so I can't. Just google it)

[Cynthia]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

Ah yes, Corey Stewart will make big gains in prince William due to home advantage, just like how trump did very well in New York City..../s

Considering Obama got 63% percent and Hillary got 59%, I'd say Trump improved in NY.  Also, remember that Virginia has not had a majority winner for governor or senator since 2012. All the wins since then have been pluralities. Also, this is likely to play out like the Georgia special election with max turnout everywhere. As for Northern Virginia not caring ablut confederate monuments, I live up here and even the liberal minorities here stand up for them. We all went into election night thinking Warner was going to win by 20 points or so. Kaine is not nearly as popular as Warner.  Warner won all but 6 out of hundreds of localities in VA, Kaine only won The typical democrat localities plus VA Beach.

Upstate NY is where Trump made his gains, not NYC.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

Ah yes, Corey Stewart will make big gains in prince William due to home advantage, just like how trump did very well in New York City..../s

Considering Obama got 63% percent and Hillary got 59%, I'd say Trump improved in NY.  Also, remember that Virginia has not had a majority winner for governor or senator since 2012. All the wins since then have been pluralities. Also, this is likely to play out like the Georgia special election with max turnout everywhere. As for Northern Virginia not caring ablut confederate monuments, I live up here and even the liberal minorities here stand up for them. We all went into election night thinking Warner was going to win by 20 points or so. Kaine is not nearly as popular as Warner.  Warner won all but 6 out of hundreds of localities in VA, Kaine only won The typical democrat localities plus VA Beach.

Upstate NY is where Trump made his gains, not NYC.

His gains in Suffolk, Staten Island, etc. should not be ignored.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The daily caller posted an article saying how 65% of whites, 65% of latinos, and 44% of black americans want to keep the confederate statues, whereas 25% of whites, 24% of latinos, and 40% of black americans would like them to be removed.
This confirms what I have said earlier about minorities wanting those statues up as well as whites. (I would use a link but i don't have 20 posts so I can't. Just google it)

Ummm I don't think that means minorities want them up. They just don't care whether or not they are taken down.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Ok, this election sort of begs the question:

Has anyone in Tim Kaine's position (losing presidential or vice presidential nominee for president) lost his next Senate race recently? I can't think of any since Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, and John McCain all were reelected (though Lieberman only after going third-party). I can't really remember what happened with John Edwards, though.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ok, this election sort of begs the question:

Has anyone in Tim Kaine's position (losing presidential or vice presidential nominee for president) lost his next Senate race recently? I can't think of any since Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, and John McCain all were reelected (though Lieberman only after going third-party). I can't really remember what happened with John Edwards, though.

Edwards didn't run, since North Carolina law didn't let him run for two offices at once.

[I’m not Stu]

None of them.