U.S. SEN 2018: Which GOP Senator will lose their primaries?

[Suburbia]

Which Republican senators up for reelection or election in 2018 will most likely lose their Republican Senate primaries next year? Can they lose?

[mcmikk]

I can't say it definitively, but I would say Flake is most likely, with his lackluster approval ratings and Trump bashing him and seeming to support his primary challenger. He can still pull it out, but he's the most likely to fall out of all of them.

I recommend you change the wording to say who is most likely, rather than who will definitively lose.

[NewYorkExpress]

Flake almost certainly will lose his primary, as he just doesn't have the entrenchment McCain has. The question is whether Ward beats him, or whether someone else (DeWit, Brewer, Ducey etc.) jumps in and beats him.

[President Johnson]

Most likely Flake. Hatch if either Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman run.

[JMT]

Flake is certainly most likely. He's unpopular in Arizona. I know Kelli Ward isn't the strongest candidate, but with the support of Trump, Ward could very well defeat Flake in a one on one race. McCain is way more entrenched than Flake, and Ward came decently close to defeating him. If a bunch of "anti-Flake" candidates enter the primary, however, Flake may have enough of a base to win in a multi candidate field.

Dean Heller is much more likely to win his primary, but he could lose. I wouldn't laugh off Danny Tarkanian, while he's never actually been elected to office he has managed to win nearly every Republican primary he's run in. Running as a Trump candidate in the primary would hurt Tarkanian in the general, but it gives him a shot at defeating Heller (I would say Heller is still favored to win though)

[Maxwell]

I'd say Flake is 40-60 for the primary. He is now a distinct underdog, because he has a President willing to go after him in a state where, while Trump is unpopular overall thanks to low levels of support from independents, has a solid base of Republicans.

Dean Heller is more like 60-40 for the primary. He'll probably win but not by a lot, and will have to spend a lot of extra time and energy fending off Tarkanian.

[Rjjr77]

Which Republican senators up for reelection or election in 2018 will most likely lose their Republican Senate primaries next year? Can they lose?

none. All will win.

[I’m not Stu]

Is AZ closed primary or open primary?

[MarkD]

Is AZ closed primary or open primary?

Under FAQs on the Arizona Secretary of State site, it says:
"An independent voter on the early voter list will receive a post card in the mail asking for the voter to choose which party ballot the voter wishes to receive for the Primary Election. If the independent voter goes to the polls on Election Day the voter will be given the option to choose a party ballot at that time."

I assume it means that a registered D can only get a D ballot in the primary, a registered R can only get an R ballot, and so on; but any other voter not registered as a member of any party can get any party's ballot they ask for.

[Meatball Ron]

I don't really see Flake losing to Ward. He could be much more vulnerable with a stronger opponent though. That said, I'm not sure that his unpopularity among Trump/the hard-core Trumpers will be a big problem for Flake. The state seems to have an affinity for "mavericky"* GOP Senators and Trump's popularity there is quite low.

Heller, on the other hand, might be more vulnerable, because much of the Nevada Republican base seems to be more of the Trump variety (though many of their statewide GOP officials are pretty moderate). It'll be interesting to see if he gets a better opponent, as well.

When all is said and done though, I think all GOP incumbents survive their primary challenges.

*I know the notion of McCain/others as a "maverick" is highly exaggerated but it was the easiest word to use in this context.