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| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, Justice TJ)
| | |-+  Trump vs Brown: How likely is it that OH goes D and PA goes R
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Author Topic: Trump vs Brown: How likely is it that OH goes D and PA goes R  (Read 497 times)
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« on: August 19, 2017, 01:04:10 pm »
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As in the case of Sherrod Brown vs Trump
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2017, 03:12:45 pm »
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Pretty unlikely.  In the scenario where Brown is flipping OH, PA has almost certainly flipped as well.

I think the only possible pairings are:

OH/PA- both D
OH- R, PA- D
OH/PA- both R
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2017, 03:17:34 pm »
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Brown would probably still do better in PA than OH, though the gap would be smaller than it was in 2016.
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2017, 03:48:38 pm »
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Pretty unlikely.  In the scenario where Brown is flipping OH, PA has almost certainly flipped as well.

I think the only possible pairings are:

OH/PA- both D
OH- R, PA- D
OH/PA- both R
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2017, 04:10:12 pm »
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Pretty small--he seems like a decent fit for PA, and it's not like he's ultra-popular in OH.
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2017, 04:25:19 pm »
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i mean, i think it is unlikely, sure, but not inpossible, though brown would get something close to obama 2012
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2017, 04:33:12 pm »
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Brown loses Ohio by 2.

Brown wins Pennsylvania by 2.
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2017, 08:01:39 pm »
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Unlikely. I think Brown narrowly wins OH and does fairly well in PA.
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2017, 08:44:31 pm »
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Brown is most likely not going to be re-elected in 2018 let alone win in 2020.
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2017, 08:50:08 pm »
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Brown is most likely not going to be re-elected in 2018 let alone win in 2020.

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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2017, 08:54:26 pm »
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Brown loses Ohio by 2.

Brown wins Pennsylvania by 2.
Were this to happen, interestingly enough, it would be the first time in history that both major party presidential candidates lost their home states (safely assuming Brown carries NY).
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2017, 09:24:24 pm »
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like zero
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2017, 09:46:53 pm »
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Everyone seems to be overestimating Josh Mandel.
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2017, 11:12:58 pm »
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Pretty unlikely.  In the scenario where Brown is flipping OH, PA has almost certainly flipped as well.

I think the only possible pairings are:

OH/PA- both D
OH- R, PA- D
OH/PA- both R
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2017, 11:42:00 pm »
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Pennsylvania is always slightly more democratic than Ohio so I don't think it matters much who candidate is.  Philadelphia metro area is a much larger share of the Pennsylvania population and it tends to lean heavily Democrat as opposed to Cleveland metro area which votes Democrat in similar margins but smaller share of population.  Pittsburgh metro area is slightly more Republican than Cleveland, but still more Democratic than Columbus or Cincinnati metro area.  In rural areas or smaller urban areas the GOP vs. Democrat split is pretty similar in both cases.  So if Ohio goes Democrat, Pennsylvania almost certainly will whereas I could easily see Pennsylvania going Democrat and Ohio going Republican.
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2017, 02:17:19 am »
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FYI: the last time OH voted D while PA voted R in the same election was 1948.
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2017, 03:50:40 am »
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If Trump stays at his current pathetic approval rating Brown will win both PA and OH easily. Not counting Trump out at all, I've learned not to. But he's a tad bit embarrassing and unless he starts passing legislation he's done. 
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2017, 06:24:34 am »
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Pretty unlikely.  In the scenario where Brown is flipping OH, PA has almost certainly flipped as well.

I think the only possible pairings are:

OH/PA- both D
OH- R, PA- D
OH/PA- both R
Indeed. It is hard to see which candidate pair could swing OH to the left af PA. It would at least take a dem from OH running against a rep from PA. Merely having a dem from OH running against Trump wouldn't cut it.
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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2017, 11:42:37 am »
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Brown is most likely not going to be re-elected in 2018 let alone win in 2020.

LOL

OH is the new MO.
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Delegate BlueDogDemocrat
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2017, 01:41:04 pm »
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Brown is most likely not going to be re-elected in 2018 let alone win in 2020.

LOL

OH is the new MO.
I think that the senate race will go down to the wire. All the polls show Brown behind but if he runs a decent campaign and gets a boost with it being a Trump midterm it could go either way.
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