US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after?
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  US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after?
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Poll
Question: Choose states
#1
Alaska
 
#2
Colorado
 
#3
Georgia
 
#4
Iowa
 
#5
Maine
 
#6
Montana
 
#7
North Carolina
 
#8
South Carolina
 
#9
Texas
 
#10
West Virginia
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 108

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after?  (Read 5163 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: August 19, 2017, 09:43:47 PM »

Pick which GOP seats Democrats should aggressively target.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2017, 09:47:31 PM »

The top priorities should definitely be Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa unless Ernst is very popular, and Maine if Collins retires.

If Collins runs, write it off entirely.

If Ernst is very popular, downgrade it to second tier priority status alongside Alaska and Montana, where the Dems should try hard to recruit good candidates and invest if it looks feasible.

I don't think competing heavily in TX, WV, or SC is worthwhile unless it's shaping up to be a great year and other seats look solid.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2017, 09:49:32 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2017, 09:52:08 PM by ERM64man »

I think SC, WV, and, TX would be worth going after, although they would be long shots. Collins might retire. Bullock might run in MT.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2017, 01:26:47 AM »

CO, GA, IA, ME (if Collins retires), MT, and NC. Not sure about AK.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2017, 03:25:16 AM »

Everything other than AK, TX, SC and WV.
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2017, 03:35:42 AM »

I think Begich goes for a rematch, which should make AK competitive.
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JMT
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2017, 10:44:16 AM »

Alaska (only if Begich runs, or if Walker runs as a Dem), Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine (only if Collins retires), Montana (only if Bullock runs), North Carolina.

South Carolina, Texas and West Virginia are likely out of reach for Democrats and they shouldn't invest resources in these states
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2017, 10:51:05 AM »

I think Berkowitz shouldn't be slept on as an Alaska candidate. He came closest to defeating Young, and now he's the mayor of Anchorage, which is a Republican-leaning city. To win statewide in Alaska, the Democrat needs to win Anchorage by a decent enough margin. I think the Berk has a solid base in Anchorage from which to run a statewide campaign.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2017, 05:22:22 PM »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2017, 06:05:26 PM »

Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia are the obvious answers.

We should invest in Maine, even if Collins wins her primary. Polarization is much stronger now, so with a good candidate and a D wave, she certainly can lose to a Democrat (say Chellie Pingree, Troy Jackson or Sara Gideon)

We probably shouldn't invest in Montana unless Bullock runs.

Same with Iowa, only with Vilsack.

Alaska, we probably need Begich to run, and prop up a hypothetical candidacy by someone like Joe Miller to win...too many variables to put money in.

Don't spend anything on South Carolina or West Virginia, and only put money on Texas if Julian or Joaquin Castro jumps in (and especially if Cornyn retires).
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2017, 06:08:17 PM »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.

He won by 18 points??
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2017, 08:50:55 PM »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.

He won by 18 points??

After the original incumbent had to quit due to plagiarism? In a GOP wave? Against a candidate generally considered to be a seat filler? In a state Trump won by 20? Not really.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2017, 09:01:23 PM »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.

Cornyn's most recent win was definitely impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2014
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2017, 09:03:45 PM »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.

Cornyn's most recent win was definitely impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2014

Ehh, he ran against a Some Guy who couldn't win a Democratic congressional primary.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2017, 09:30:09 PM »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2017, 09:32:55 PM »

Honestly, go for broke in Colorado and North Carolina. I think the rest will be difficult, with the possible exception of Georgia.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2017, 09:52:34 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2017, 10:15:59 PM by ERM64man »

I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.
Gardner is likely DOA. Tillis is vulnerable, especially if Roy Cooper or Jeff Jackson runs. There's a very good chance Steve Bullock is the nominee in Montana. Trump only won Texas by single digits. Maybe a Castro brother has a chance, especially if Cornyn Retires. Go after Maine if Collins retires. Begich or Berkowitz could win in Alaska, especially if Sullivan's approval rating declines. Go after South Carolina if if Graham retires, loses the primary, or is polling poorly after winning the primary. Also go after Perdue in GA. Go after IA if Ernst is unpopular.
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Blair
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2017, 06:57:21 AM »

This just makes me realize how poor the map is for 2020, for the democrats. Although I suppose the GOP would have thought the same looking at 2016, and the reality now seems to be that the national mood can pull up very very strange results.
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2017, 12:03:57 PM »

Democrats definitely should try again in 2020 in Kentucky, Mcconnell has a 18/74 approval rating lol
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2017, 12:49:02 PM »

Democrats definitely should try again in 2020 in Kentucky, Mcconnell has a 18/74 approval rating lol

And McConnell will win. Hes arguably the greatest campaigner of this generation.
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2017, 02:38:25 PM »

Democrats definitely should try again in 2020 in Kentucky, Mcconnell has a 18/74 approval rating lol

And McConnell will win. Hes arguably the greatest campaigner of this generation.

When all a Republican has to do to win statewide is yell about guns, coal, freeduhm and black people, it really does kind of overinflate his campaign abilities.

you dont give McConnell enough credit, his approvals are always underwater, hes kept his seat against the most popular politician in kentucky history, in a year when a D president won  ('96). The guys absolutely brilliant, hes destroyed top level competition when kentucky was a Democrat state. He knows people wont like him, so he makes them hate his opponent more than they hate him, hes always first out the gate, and he doesnt pull punches. He's one of the best all time.

the list of people he's beaten is amazing:
Incumbent 2 term democrat Dee Huddleston, Popular Louisville mayor Harvey Sloane, Steve Beshear, daughter of a popular former governor and judge Lois Combs Weinberg, Businessman Bruce Lunsford, and SOS (and so called rising star) Allison Lundergan Grimes. He always gets a legitimate challenge and he always wins by solid margins.
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Blair
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2017, 04:58:22 PM »

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2017, 05:02:15 PM »

All of them except South Carolina, Texas, and maybe West Virginia. Also:

I think Berkowitz shouldn't be slept on as an Alaska candidate. He came closest to defeating Young, and now he's the mayor of Anchorage, which is a Republican-leaning city. To win statewide in Alaska, the Democrat needs to win Anchorage by a decent enough margin. I think the Berk has a solid base in Anchorage from which to run a statewide campaign.

Exactly this. Alaska is trending away from the Republicans, Sullivan isn't exactly inspiring, and Berkowitz has massive potential, particularly now that he has a real statewide profile.
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AN63093
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2017, 05:06:08 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2017, 05:07:51 AM by AN63093 »

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Maybe not, but Rjjr77 has a point.  He does always seem to win, even though nobody likes him and he's had decent opposition.


Anyways, back to the topic- my targets would be:

CO
.
.
.
[big gap]
.
.
.
NC
.
[smaller gap]
.
GA


The rest aren't really in the cards, though ME is worth keeping an eye on, depending on what happens with Collins, and you'd still want to put some money towards races like AK and MT.  Is MT really a tossup?  Not sure I'm buying that, but hey, what do I know.  I guess Bullock could change the dynamic there quite a bit.
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2017, 08:01:43 AM »

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.
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