Races where your "gut" differs from your "head"

[MT Treasurer]

In which races (House/Senate, but you can also do Governor/state legislature) does your head tell you one candidate will win but your gut tells you the other candidate will emerge victorious?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Montana Senate
My gut is all for Steve Bullock but my head tells me that Steve Daines is favourite.

[WD]

The main race where I feel this is Iowa, my gut says Greenfield but my head says Ernst.

[VAR]

NC-SEN: My gut says Tillis, but my head tells me Cunningham.

[ugabug]

South Carolina with my gut going with Harrison but my head going with Graham.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT, we don't know how it's gonna play our, we have gotten very few polls, the same with AK, Gross can win with a plurality of the vote

Both Bullock and Gross are great candidates and will be great additions to Senate, but MT Treasurer believes bipartisan bills for Daines and he is holding up the stimulus checks for consumers with Leader McConnell

[JMT]

The main race where I feel this is Iowa, my gut says Greenfield but my head says Ernst.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In general, my head says Democrats will do better than my gut. I still worry about Rs winning NC, ME, and IA, even though logically, I think they are favored to lose all 3 right now (IA will be very close though and could really go either way).

In a few red states, my gut is more hopeful than my head because my head thinks partisanship will win out more than expected.

[Xing]

My “gut” (which likely still has 2016 PTSD) tells me that Republicans will hold every competitive seat of theirs, keeping the Senate 52-48 (only AL, AZ, and CO flip) while my head tells me Democrats will gain five seats, for a 51-49 Senate. So definitely ME and NC, plus one more race.

[Calthrina950]

I still expect Graham to win reelection in South Carolina (by a Cruz 2018-esque margin), and I believe that Daines is favored in Montana at this point. I also think Collins is on the down and out in Maine. North Carolina and Iowa are probably the two states where I'm most uncertain about the outcome at this juncture.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My “gut” (which likely still has 2016 PTSD) tells me that Republicans will hold every competitive seat of theirs, keeping the Senate 52-48 (only AL, AZ, and CO flip) while my head tells me Democrats will gain five seats, for a 51-49 Senate. So definitely ME and NC, plus one more race.

AK KS and MT and SC are very competitive and so is IA. GA will definitely go to runoffs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In general, my head says Democrats will do better than my gut. I still worry about Rs winning NC, ME, and IA, even though logically, I think they are favored to lose all 3 right now (IA will be very close though and could really go either way).

In a few red states, my gut is more hopeful than my head because my head thinks partisanship will win out more than expected.

What happened to Gross and AK, he was your candidate

[ProgressiveModerate]

In general, my head says Democrats will do better than my gut. I still worry about Rs winning NC, ME, and IA, even though logically, I think they are favored to lose all 3 right now (IA will be very close though and could really go either way).

In a few red states, my gut is more hopeful than my head because my head thinks partisanship will win out more than expected.

What happened to Gross and AK, he was your candidate

I never said he was favored to win, but that AK-Sen would be competative (which it is now)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The main race where I feel this is Iowa, my gut says Greenfield but my head says Ernst.

This but the other way around for me

[KaiserDave]

South Carolina. My head says Graham +3-5. My gut says Harrison +1-2.

[Lognog]

The main race where I feel this is Iowa, my gut says Greenfield but my head says Ernst.

I'm the opposite

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is behind by 14 pts, D's can win AK, GA, IA, KS, MT and SC

[Ferguson97]

Gut says Harrison, head says Graham by less than 3 points.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia regular and special. I change my mind on those all the time

[😥]

NC-Sen: head says Cunningham, gut says Tillis
IA-Sen: head says Greenfield, gut says Ernst
MT-Sen: head says Daines, gut says Bullock

[LimoLiberal]

TX-23: Head says GOJ, gut says Tony Gonzales.
VA-05: Head says Bob Good, gut says Cameron Webb.
ME-Sen: Head says Gideon, gut says Collins
MT-Sen: Head says Daines, gut says Bullock

[Left Wing]

MT-Gov-Head says Gianforte gut says Cooney
NC-11-Head says Cawthorn gut says Davis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

According to the OP in this thread, he thinks Rs and Trump are getting stronger not weaker that's why he has James, Ernst and Collins still winning and he is the only R that believes this, most Rs have conceded ME and MI😃😃😃

Even Ernst was down by 12 in 1 poll
Trump is down by 14 pts

[MT Treasurer]

For me:

MT-AL - head says Rosendale, gut says Williams

MI-SEN/ME-SEN/NC-SEN - head says Republicans lose all three of those, gut says they win one of them (but I can’t decide which one — I also used to get WI-SEN 2016 vibes from the NC race and still feel like Tillis won’t significantly underperform Trump, but it’s hard to ignore those kinds of polling leads)

KS-SEN - head says Marshall, gut says race goes down to the wire (with a ND 2012-esque Bollier "upset" possible)

VA-05 - Head says Good, gut says Webb

[Kuumo]

ME-SEN: head says Gideon, gut says Collins
NC-SEN: head says Cunningham, gut says Tillis
OK-05: head says Horn, gut says Bice
IA-01: head says Finkenauer, gut says Hinson
IA-SEN: neither predict Greenfield winning, but head says she has a good chance, gut says she doesn't

My gut tends to predict Republicans winning most races where the Democratic candidate's average polling lead is within the margin of error.