I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.
Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.
North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.
Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.
Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.
Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.
Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.
Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.
We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.
Gardner is likely DOA. Tillis is vulnerable, especially if Roy Cooper or Jeff Jackson runs. There's a very good chance Steve Bullock is the nominee in Montana. Trump only won Texas by single digits. Maybe a Castro brother has a chance, especially if Cornyn Retires. Go after Maine if Collins retires. Begich or Berkowitz could win in Alaska, especially if Sullivan's approval rating declines. Go after South Carolina if if Graham retires, loses the primary, or is polling poorly after winning the primary. Also go after Perdue in GA. Go after IA if Ernst is unpopular.
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