Trump’s Approval Rating Stands Around 35 Percent in Three Key Midwest States

[The Mikado]

I'm not sure why these numbers are surprising.

Trump nationally in 2016: 46%
Trump in MI+WI: 47%, PA: 48%

If Trump's about 10% down from his vote share, polling in the mid-30s nationally, he'll be polling in the mid 30s in these states. I don't see how Trump approval of ~36% nationally doesn't translate into numbers like this.

[Rjjr77]

forget the approval ratings this is the part that means trump is still in it:

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[Rjjr77]

forget the approval ratings this is the part that means trump is still in it:

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There isn't an economist alive that thinks there wont be a recession by 2020. In just a couple of months, the US will have gone its longest period of time without a recession.

Okay, in a couple of months the US will have gone its longest period of time without a recession, this is false. It would take to July 2019 to be the longest period of time in between recessions, second what kind of recession are we talking? a 6-8 months recession? that can see a quick bounce back. The other side is as an economist I dont know if a recession is going to hit prior to 2020 due to the sluggish growth and the still stagnating interest rates. Eventually one will come, how bad and when is tougher to guess. My estimation pegs it somewhere around 2021-2022. The interest rate staying below the 2% mark makes me think its going to be delayed until it bumps up to the 2.5-3% range at the least. That is unless the fed speeds up the rate of resale on the securities they are slowly putting back into market, but they arent that stupid.

[Virginiá]

I just don't see him winning these states in 2020. He did not crack 50 percent here and won by less than a point in each. He will not be running against Hillary and the 3rd party vote is surely to decrease. The dynamics will be completely different. There were many 3rd party votes from folks who didn't want to get their hands dirty by voting Hillary bc they thought she'd win anyway. Now Trump is here and I'm sure many of these voters can be convinced to coalesce around the Dem candidate.

And the Obama-Trump voters should be easy to sway back as long as a GOP Congress continue to be unproductive. God help us if Trump actually stops getting in his own way.

This sounds reasonable. I don't get why anyone could be bullish on Trump's chances in WI/MI/PA when his actual winning margin was comfortably below 50% in each. He lucked out quite a bit running against someone almost as unpopular as he was (or in some states, less popular). There is absolutely no guarantee that happens again, no matter how much the GOP machine goes after the nominee. Further, he will no longer be a total outsider at that point. He will have to own 4 years of the country's problems, and if his approvals are this bad against a fairly decent Democratic candidate, then I don't really understand how he pulls it off.

In my opinion, Trump has all the signs of having an 2012 Obama-like effect - as in, his 2nd run will be much weaker than his first due to sagging popularity. If that is the case, he will have a pretty big losing margin if the Democrat picks up not only most of the 3rd party votes, but some former Trump supporters who feel disillusioned (or simply stay home).

[Kamala]

In my opinion, Trump has all the signs of having an 2012 Obama-like effect - as in, his 2nd run will be much weaker than his first due to sagging popularity. If that is the case, he will have a pretty big losing margin if the Democrat picks up not only most of the 3rd party votes, but some former Trump supporters who feel disillusioned (or simply stay home).

I have a feeling that this is a new normal - that presidents perform worse in their reelection bid than their initial attempt.

[mileslunn]

In my opinion, Trump has all the signs of having an 2012 Obama-like effect - as in, his 2nd run will be much weaker than his first due to sagging popularity. If that is the case, he will have a pretty big losing margin if the Democrat picks up not only most of the 3rd party votes, but some former Trump supporters who feel disillusioned (or simply stay home).

I have a feeling that this is a new normal - that presidents perform worse in their reelection bid than their initial attempt.

If he has a similar swing to Obama in 2012 it would be a fairly narrow Democrat win.  Lets remember despite Obama's difficulties he only lost Indiana and North Carolina which were both fairly narrow wins.  Ohio and Florida were not won by massive margins in 2008 yet Obama still held both of those although both tightened a bit.  A similar swing would be enough to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, but everything else would stay the same.  You would need a much bigger swing for the Democrats to have a landslide.  Otherwise it would more or less be the results flipped around of 307-231 EV and if Trump holds Florida then it is a very narrow win of 278-260 EV.

[Sumner 1868]

Wow, look at those numbers with college whites! Time to campaign in every Panera Bread and Whole Foods in the country.

Yes, it seems Trump has accidentally created the DLC coalition Bill and Hill always wanted but never got.

[The Mikado]

In my opinion, Trump has all the signs of having an 2012 Obama-like effect - as in, his 2nd run will be much weaker than his first due to sagging popularity. If that is the case, he will have a pretty big losing margin if the Democrat picks up not only most of the 3rd party votes, but some former Trump supporters who feel disillusioned (or simply stay home).

I have a feeling that this is a new normal - that presidents perform worse in their reelection bid than their initial attempt.

If he has a similar swing to Obama in 2012 it would be a fairly narrow Democrat win.  Lets remember despite Obama's difficulties he only lost Indiana and North Carolina which were both fairly narrow wins.  Ohio and Florida were not won by massive margins in 2008 yet Obama still held both of those although both tightened a bit.  A similar swing would be enough to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, but everything else would stay the same.  You would need a much bigger swing for the Democrats to have a landslide.  Otherwise it would more or less be the results flipped around of 307-231 EV and if Trump holds Florida then it is a very narrow win of 278-260 EV.

Obama moved from winning by 7.3 to winning by 3.8. If Trump moved from winning by -2.1 to performing at -5.6, it'd lose PA, WI, MI, FL, but it'd also bring AZ down to a 0.0X% GOP win and NC to a 0.1% GOP win. Arizona and NC would very much both be in play there, and Georgia would be within two points.

[mileslunn]

In my opinion, Trump has all the signs of having an 2012 Obama-like effect - as in, his 2nd run will be much weaker than his first due to sagging popularity. If that is the case, he will have a pretty big losing margin if the Democrat picks up not only most of the 3rd party votes, but some former Trump supporters who feel disillusioned (or simply stay home).

I have a feeling that this is a new normal - that presidents perform worse in their reelection bid than their initial attempt.

If he has a similar swing to Obama in 2012 it would be a fairly narrow Democrat win.  Lets remember despite Obama's difficulties he only lost Indiana and North Carolina which were both fairly narrow wins.  Ohio and Florida were not won by massive margins in 2008 yet Obama still held both of those although both tightened a bit.  A similar swing would be enough to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, but everything else would stay the same.  You would need a much bigger swing for the Democrats to have a landslide.  Otherwise it would more or less be the results flipped around of 307-231 EV and if Trump holds Florida then it is a very narrow win of 278-260 EV.

Obama moved from winning by 7.3 to winning by 3.8. If Trump moved from winning by -2.1 to performing at -5.6, it'd lose PA, WI, MI, FL, but it'd also bring AZ down to a 0.0X% GOP win and NC to a 0.1% GOP win. Arizona and NC would very much both be in play there, and Georgia would be within two points.

Good point although if you look at the state by state swings the biggest swings towards Romney were in already solid red states.  In Ohio and Florida, if you had a swing of that size Romney would have taken them, but didn't due to a smaller swing so it depends if it is a uniform swing or not.  But agreed a shift of that size would likely end Trump's presidency.  Never mind Obama's approval rating never went below 40% whereas Trump has already gone below 40% very early in his presidency.

[AN63093]

Jaichind and Marty have a point.  Approval ratings this early don't matter all that much, and especially given how polarized things are.

It almost doesn't matter who the candidates are or what the issues that people are currently complaining about are.  This is the map:

I posted this also in the 'underestimating Trump' thread, but I feel it's worth repeating.  With maybe a state or two changing, this is the map we're looking at folks.  It really doesn't matter how low Trump's approval rating is.  Outside of a stock market crash like 1929, there will not be a 1980s style landslide.

There's really only one question to ask- will minority turnout in Detroit and FL be higher than Obama->Trump voters in WI, MI, and PA?  If the answer is yes, Dems win.  If no, Dems lose.  Simple as that.

And how much do approval ratings this early in the game tell us in answering that Q?  Next to nothing.

[Pericles]

I don't think it's seriously in dispute that if the election were held again today those three states would flip.