ME-Sen-How is LePage a good candidate?
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  ME-Sen-How is LePage a good candidate?
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Author Topic: ME-Sen-How is LePage a good candidate?  (Read 3191 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: August 20, 2017, 11:10:01 AM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2017, 12:33:10 PM »

He isn't, certainly not against King.
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TheLeftwardTide
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2017, 12:54:19 PM »

King is a safe incumbent.
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BlueDogDemocrat
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2017, 01:44:43 PM »

Definitely not King is way more popular.
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Keep cool-idge
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2017, 02:29:09 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
Okay the fact is he was supposed to lose last time yet he won he is sort of like Scott walker I really believe he is a strong candidate he won twice State wide what else do you need to know.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2017, 02:40:08 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
Okay the fact is he was supposed to lose last time yet he won he is sort of like Scott walker I really believe he is a strong candidate he won twice State wide what else do you need to know.

It's not that simple.  LePage won both times with less than 50% due to the presence of a strong Independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, who almost certainly took more votes from the Democrat.  In a two-way race, LePage would probably have lost at least one of those elections.

2010:

LePage (R) 38%
Cutler (I) 36%
Mitchell (D) 19%

2014:

LePage (R) 48%
Michaud (D) 43%
Cutler (I) 8%

Cutler has said that he would not run for Governor again.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2017, 02:41:24 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2017, 02:44:55 PM by ERM64man »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
Okay the fact is he was supposed to lose last time yet he won he is sort of like Scott walker I really believe he is a strong candidate he won twice State wide what else do you need to know.
LePage only got a larger share in 2014 because he was an incumbent. There were effectively two Democrats in both the 2010 and 2014, general elections, Eliot Cutler and the Democratic nominee.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2017, 03:09:04 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
Okay the fact is he was supposed to lose last time yet he won he is sort of like Scott walker I really believe he is a strong candidate he won twice State wide what else do you need to know.

LePage's opponent split the vote with a left leaning independent.   

LePage basically has Cutler to thank for getting into office at all.
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MarkD
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2017, 05:51:51 PM »

He is not a candidate at all, so your question is moot.

LePage has said he will only run for the Senate if he becomes disappointed in the quality of Eric Brakey's campaign against King, which has not happened yet.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2017, 09:54:36 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
Okay the fact is he was supposed to lose last time yet he won he is sort of like Scott walker I really believe he is a strong candidate he won twice State wide what else do you need to know.
Scott Walker ran against a weak candidate.

Angus King is a strong incumbent.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2017, 11:59:43 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?
Okay the fact is he was supposed to lose last time yet he won he is sort of like Scott walker I really believe he is a strong candidate he won twice State wide what else do you need to know.

What you need to know is that 2014 was a GOP tsunami year and LePage was a GOP incumbent, and that piece of lard still underperformed.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2017, 09:15:06 AM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?

anytime a 2 term governor who isn't crazy unpopular considers a run hes a top recruit.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2017, 09:23:38 AM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?

anytime a 2 term governor who isn't crazy unpopular considers a run hes a top recruit.

In April, Morning Consult had LePage's approval at 48/49, making him one of only a handful of governors with underwater approval.  Source
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2017, 09:26:39 AM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?

anytime a 2 term governor who isn't crazy unpopular considers a run hes a top recruit.

In April, Morning Consult had LePage's approval at 48/49, making him one of only a handful of governors with underwater approval.  Source

Cool story. hes within the margin of error of being approved by over half of voters, has high name ID and has been elected two times. thats a good candidate for a senate seat anywhere.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2017, 09:33:52 AM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?

anytime a 2 term governor who isn't crazy unpopular considers a run hes a top recruit.

In April, Morning Consult had LePage's approval at 48/49, making him one of only a handful of governors with underwater approval.  Source

Cool story. hes within the margin of error of being approved by over half of voters, has high name ID and has been elected two times. thats a good candidate for a senate seat anywhere.

Well, by those standards, Richard Nixon would have been a good candidate in early 1974. Smiley  I suspect that Angus King would be delighted to run against LePage.  (FWIW, King's approval in the same Morning Consult survey was 67/23, or +44 vs LePage's -1.  Senate rankings)
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2017, 12:40:24 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?

anytime a 2 term governor who isn't crazy unpopular considers a run hes a top recruit.

In April, Morning Consult had LePage's approval at 48/49, making him one of only a handful of governors with underwater approval.  Source

Cool story. hes within the margin of error of being approved by over half of voters, has high name ID and has been elected two times. thats a good candidate for a senate seat anywhere.

Well, by those standards, Richard Nixon would have been a good candidate in early 1974. Smiley  I suspect that Angus King would be delighted to run against LePage.  (FWIW, King's approval in the same Morning Consult survey was 67/23, or +44 vs LePage's -1.  Senate rankings)

Comparing Nixon to LePage is idiocy. Nixon's approval rating was high 20s in early 74.

This isnt a discussion of who would win (King would win) its "how is LePage a good candidate" hes a good candidate because hes a 2 term governor who isn't unpopular... its not that hard
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2017, 01:22:07 PM »

we are talking about a governor with a -1 approval gonna win against a top 10 most popular senator(Angus King)?

anytime a 2 term governor who isn't crazy unpopular considers a run hes a top recruit.

In April, Morning Consult had LePage's approval at 48/49, making him one of only a handful of governors with underwater approval.  Source

Cool story. hes within the margin of error of being approved by over half of voters, has high name ID and has been elected two times. thats a good candidate for a senate seat anywhere.

Well, by those standards, Richard Nixon would have been a good candidate in early 1974. Smiley  I suspect that Angus King would be delighted to run against LePage.  (FWIW, King's approval in the same Morning Consult survey was 67/23, or +44 vs LePage's -1.  Senate rankings)

Comparing Nixon to LePage is idiocy. Nixon's approval rating was high 20s in early 74.

This isnt a discussion of who would win (King would win) its "how is LePage a good candidate" hes a good candidate because hes a 2 term governor who isn't unpopular... its not that hard

OK, let's make it the Spring of 1973 for Nixon; he was still in the upper 40's then.  I just don't think the characterization of LePage as a good candidate is true.  A plausible candidate, sure, for the reasons you mentioned.  But he's too controversial to be a good one.
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Roblox
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2017, 02:15:21 PM »

Um... You probably shouldn't rely too much on morning consult. Frankly, their approval polls seem like junk- Everyone's approval ratings are extremely inflated, especially compared to other polls. For example, there's no way only 3 senators out of 100 have under-water approvals. They even showed Heller in the positive range, lol.
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Santander
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2017, 12:07:09 PM »

It depends on what the Democrats do. If they split the left enough, LePage has proven he can win in such a scenario. King is also notorious for his distaste for campaigning and fundraising, although the latter isn't that important for a center-left incumbent in Maine. The headwinds will be stiff for LePage with Trump in the White House, though.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2017, 07:10:35 PM »

More LePageness:

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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2017, 09:39:11 PM »

He isn't, and he won't win.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2017, 02:22:00 PM »

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Santander
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« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2017, 02:42:13 PM »

More LePageness:

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If only Maine was on the right side of history. Sad
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2017, 06:31:40 PM »

LePage is unlikely to defeat King.
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MarkD
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2017, 08:06:49 PM »

LePage is not running.

He is not a candidate at all, so your question is moot.

LePage has said he will only run for the Senate if he becomes disappointed in the quality of Eric Brakey's campaign against King, which has not happened yet.

He declared that he won't run for the Senate, and then a couple of months later he said that he might change his mind and run after all if the campaign of Sen. Eric Brakey is not doing well.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/20/politics/kfile-paul-lepage-senate-run/index.html

There will be time enough to discuss whether he "IS" a good candidate when he indicates that he IS one. (The question was not worded as "Would LePage be a good candidate?")
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