Is Sherrod Brown the most likely white male to be the 2020 Dem. VP nominee?

[Mr. Morden]

Seems like, in the event that:

1) He's reelected next year, which certainly seems more likely than not, and
2) The Dems manage to retake the Ohio governorship, which allows Brown's successor to be appointed by a Democratic governor (this is much dicier, but certainly possible), then

Brown is the odds on favorite to be the 2020 Dem. VP nominee.  In fact, even factoring in the fact that those two things are uncertain, I'd still put him as the favorite.  The one main argument against him would be if the presidential nominee wanted a "diversity" pick.  If, say, Biden or (lol) Cuomo is the presidential nominee, then there's a good chance they'd pick a racial minority or a woman.  But if the presidential nominee is Warren or Harris or Booker or Gillibrand, then yeah, Brown would be high on the list.  Heck, if the presidential nominee is Bernie Sanders, I'd say Brown is also high on the list, as Sanders's age will mean that he'll want to pick a running mate who is both qualified to take over as president and committed to carrying out his economic agenda, and there are only so many people who qualify.

It's also possible that someone breaks out in the 2020 primaries but doesn't win the nomination, and that puts them on a fast track to the vice presidency, a la Kerry picking Edwards in '04.  But more often than not, the VP pick isn't someone who ran for president that year.

[Mr. Morden]

Brown being on the ticket would be a bad decision even if Dems win the Ohio governorship. There's no way some random state legislator manages to hold on to a seat in ruby-red Ohio.

That may be, but most presidential nominees don't think that way when deciding on a running mate.  Heck, Clinton reportedly gave Brown serious consideration for VP last year, despite the fact that Kasich would have picked his replacement.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, as discussed in the Tea Leaves thread, this WaPo piece from last month definitely makes it sound like Brown was eager to run as VP last year, had Clinton picked him:

WaPo has a new story on Sherrod Brown in which he’s asked about running for prez in 2020, and he says “I just don’t want to do it”:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/sherrod-brown-thinks-he-could-have-helped-democrats-win-in-2016-but-what-about-2020/2017/07/23/168ac16c-6b2d-11e7-b9e2-2056e768a7e5_story.html?utm_term=.f5c85a999a39

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The story also includes a lot of discussion about Brown’s participation in the veepstakes last year.  Despite his current denial of interest in running for prez, he says that he “relished” the idea of campaigning in other Midwestern states, had he been the VP nominee last year:

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