How much will the Arpaio pardon damage Trump?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As the title asks...

I think it could really damage his standing with Arizonan independents and quite possibly could inch the state closer to the Democratic column in 2020.

[adrac]

Seat 50 of 51.

[Maxwell]

It won't.

Not substantially, anyway. Anyone who hates Sheriff Joe already hates Trump anyways.

[Beet]

The average swing voter doesn't wake up in the morning and think "Sheriff Joe." It's just another notch in the belt for the base.

[Classic Conservative]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

[Kamala]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

I'm really glad a 15 year old theocrat told me I'm a fool. Really great #analysis bro!

[Classic Conservative]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

I'm really glad a 15 year old theocrat told me I'm a fool. Really great #analysis bro!

What's your problem?

[Kamala]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

I'm really glad a 15 year old theocrat told me I'm a fool. Really great #analysis bro!

What's your problem?

Sorry I'm just tired and grumpy.

[Cactus Jack]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

I'm really glad a 15 year old theocrat told me I'm a fool. Really great #analysis bro!

What's your problem?

You, I think.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

I'm really glad a 15 year old theocrat told me I'm a fool. Really great #analysis bro!

Very nice choice of comeback selecting a prey you see as unpopular as a way to assert yourself with an ad hominen attack when the two Democrats above him said the exact same thing. Really loving!

[Kamala]

Zero, it will not change a single mind and if you think so you're fooling yourself.

I'm really glad a 15 year old theocrat told me I'm a fool. Really great #analysis bro!

Very nice choice of comeback selecting a prey you see as unpopular as a way to assert yourself with an ad hominen attack when the two Democrats above him said the exact same thing. Really loving!

[Anna Komnene]

Maybe not too much by itself, but it'll just be another example of Trump not giving a sh[inks] about the legal system and not having any basic concept of justice or fairness. And yeah, I think those things matter to most apolitical type people that don't really identify with either party but just want to pick who they think is best with the info they've got.

[Goldwater]

Serious question, who at this point even still has an undecided opinion of Trump?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Since Arpaio is neither a Russian nor a Confederate general, no one will notice.

[Devout Centrist]

Net negative, although no one will care.

All these "LOL BASE WILL LOVE THIS AND VOTE FOR TRUMP EVEN HARDER" takes are really pissing me off.

[Cactus Jack]

Like Charlottesville, it's another nuclear coal added to the slow burn, but that's not the important thing to take away from this. The damage it might do to Trump himself is insignificant compared to the damage it's practically guaranteed to do to Arizona Republicans. In a midterm where Flake is about three steps away from leaping headlong into the proverbial Grand Canyon of political careers, Ducey may be in for a competitive race, and John McCain is very likely to vacate his seat for one reason or another, the AZGOP absolutely can't afford this sort of fallout.

[NOVA Green]

Wait---- I don't believe that Trump has actually pardoned Arpaio, although he alluded to the prospect to throw "red meat" to the wolves of his base, unless I missed something since I checked the news after coming home from a swing-shift....

So, maybe we should split this into several questions:

1.) Will Trump pardon Arpaio?

2.) If so, where are the political upsides/downsides within various States, Counties, Demographics, etc.... ?

I'm actually a bit skeptical on question #1, since really, although has shown to be extremely loyal to many of his earlier supporters that helped erect his tower to the White House, he has also fired or forced various under individuals to resign when it became politically expedient....

Trump is pretty much the classic Managerial "Throw people under the Bus" kind of guy, and I'm scratching my head as to why he would go out to pardon some 85 year old Sheriff who was overwhelmingly voted out of office by his own constituents, who anyway you look at it regardless of his political opinions, is pretty much completely 100% a "has been" or "loser" in Arizona State politics.

My suspicion is that Trump is basically wagging the tail of the dog in Arizona so that he doesn't appear to be "throwing him under the bus", let alone pissing off the much broader audience of his base, many of whom voted for him partially as a result of the Anti-Immigrant platform of his brand....

2.) If Trump pardons Arpaio, AZ will almost definitely flip in 2020.... Not rocket science here folks, if Dude can't win his own former County, that basically determines Statewide elections in AZ, then a Trump parson will pretty much seal the deal....

Honestly other than that not convinced it will really have much of a major impact anywhere else.... NV/CO/NM might swing a few points away from the 'Pubs, but really outside of AZ and OC political observers like ourselves, nobody really has any idea who the eff this guy is....

So, is there an upside for Trump here other than maintaining his "Nationalist Base" with Bannon now fired? I'm really not convinced there is.....  The unique strategy and path to the White House he performed in '16 runs heavily through the Upper Midwest and PA, where his approval numbers appear to have been tanking the hardest...

These aren't voters that swung primarily towards Trump because of fears about Latino immigration, in States with some of the lowest percentage of Latino voters in the Country.... Pardoning some random racist sheriff that nobody has heard of isn't going to hold the Obama/Trump voters in places like WI/MI/IA/MN/OH....

Idk.... maybe it might help him around the margins in some random places like wealthier Anglo 'Burbs around some of the major Metro areas in TX, but even that argument seems far fetched imho.

So running the upside/downside numbers it seems like AZ will flip in 2020, and Dem margins increase in NV/CO... Upside, *maybe* Trump uses that to try to double-down on his Midwest strategy of 2016 (Personally I don't think that dog will hunt twice---- people are going to expect a significant economic material gain and no major wars much more so, rather than some Redneck Sheriff from AZ being pardoned)

[ProudModerate2]

Very little.
But since this state is moving left as time goes on, it could help to gain the Dem's an addl senate seat.

[pbrower2a]

Very little.

Arpaio is a local hack with a foot in the grave. It will offend his haters and bring cheer to those who think him wonderful.

Trump is making a huge mistake if one believes in the rule of law. But Trump supporters would have no problem with police or jailer brutality so long as it is 'expendable' people who endure it. 

[HAnnA MArin County]

Trump could defecate on a statue of Saint Ronald Reagan and the deplorables would still be under his spell. This won't hurt him any with that base of deplorables. You really the Trumptards care about the rule of law?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No damage at all.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Trump could defecate on a statue of Saint Ronald Reagan and the deplorables would still be under his spell.

He would probably get a National Endowment for the Arts grant as well.

[Sir Mohamed]

I guarantee you, it won't have any effect. The folks still sticking with him won't turn off anything. They will actually like it, because Arpaio is the same bigot. For anti-Trumpers, it is just one more of countless proofs of his absurd and stupid behavior.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Trump could defecate on a statue of Saint Ronald Reagan and the deplorables would still be under his spell.

He would probably get a National Endowment for the Arts grant as well.

I remember when someone said something like that about Obama and OMGZ police were out in force.

And let's be honest, Obama could take a selfie of his junk in the bathroom mirror with his BlackBerry, have it transferred to canvas and you'd have people saying it ought to be hung in the National Gallery.

[Santander]

His attacks on McConnell, Flake, and McCain will be more damaging than this sideshow.