PPP: Delaney and Trump tied; Trump leads Cruz, Pence, Kasich in primary

[heatcharger]

Link.

Delaney 38%
Trump 38%

GOP Primary:

Trump 62%
Cruz 22%

Trump 52%
Pence 24%

Trump 68%
Kasich 21%

[TheSaint250]

this is just bad for both candidates (Trump is tied with an obscure candidate, and Delaney isn't beating Trump.

[BudgieForce]

There are alot of 2020 match ups in this poll F.Y.I.

2020 Match ups:

Biden 51%
Trump 38%

Blumenthal 42%
Trump 39%

Booker 42%
Trump 39%

Cuban 42%
Trump 38%

Harris 39%
Trump 39%

Sanders 51%
Trump 38%

Warren 45%
Trump 40%

Delaney 38%
Trump 38%

[GlobeSoc]

Notes:
-Trump is still stuck in the 38-40 range
-Trump is weak enough for a semi-serious primary challenge. I could see him losing 1-2 states in the primary at this time
-Undecideds are higher with Pence v Trump than with the other primary matchups. Why?

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Warren vs Trump numbers should be concerning for Dear Leader and his sycophants.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Most of these candidates aren't well known to the public. I definitely think Harris and Delaney have higher ceilings than that. And this poll demonstrates why I don't think Warren would be a good candidate.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This poll is kind of wonky because 14% of the people say they voted for someone other than Hillary or Trump.

Regardless, this poll doesn't look good for Trump's prospects in 2018/2020. I'm not quite convinced that the democrats take the house in 2018 despite the +14 lead in the polls (most undecided will probably go for Republicans, dems have a big hurdle to overcome in many districts etc), but it's looking somewhat sketchy if there isn't a win soon.

[Shadows]

Lol @ Harris being worse than Cory "Big Pharma stooge" Booker

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Biden and Sanders really only poll so well against Trump because they have such high name recognition, it's too early to take the polls seriously.

[NewYorkExpress]

How the hell is Delaney even polling 38% against Trump? No one's even heard of him, after all.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Elizabeth Warren is polling worse because she's a woman. I hope people realize that. But by all means, queue the other justifications.

[RINO Tom]

Elizabeth Warren is polling worse because she's a woman. I hope people realize that. But by all means, queue the other justifications.

She has a condescending tone and has come to be associated with the fringe of her party?  Not as fun as your accusation, of course.

[Bull Moose Base]

Elizabeth Warren is polling worse because she's a woman. I hope people realize that. But by all means, queue the other justifications.

That's probably a factor but the much bigger one is people don't know who she is yet.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Those are terrible early numbers for a sitting president. Can all the Harris-haters get off their high horse on this one? It just proves she has work to do in the name-rec department. The number of support Trump gets against her is the same amount he gets against Biden so it isn't and electability issue. Although Warren's numbers do show a bumpy road for her.

[Crumpets]

Elizabeth Warren is polling worse because she's a woman. I hope people realize that. But by all means, queue the other justifications.

She has a condescending tone and has come to be associated with the fringe of her party?  Not as fun as your accusation, of course.

Cause vs. effect. Female politicians are said to have a condescending/shrill/harsh tone much more often than male candidates.

[Bull Moose Base]

Those are terrible early numbers for a sitting president. Can all the Harris-haters get off their high horse on this one? It just proves she has work to do in the name-rec department. The number of support Trump gets against her is the same amount he gets against Biden so it isn't and electability issue. Although Warren's numbers do show a bumpy road for her.

Trump gets 40 vs Warren and 39 vs Harris (and 38 vs Biden or Sanders). That's noise. You're right about name rec being the issue for Harris but that's also the issue for Warren. But as Mr. Morden often points out, you have basically 100% name rec once you're the nominee. I agree women probably have a tougher path because there are also sexist women even if they're a majority. But also Hillary vs Trump isn't enough data obviously. I'm just guessing based on life experience.

[Mr. Morden]

Just like with PPP's last poll, the big difference in electability between the different Dem. candidates comes about because there's a high # of undecideds for Clinton '16 voters when they poll less well known candidates.  E.g., compare the Biden and Harris cases among Clinton voters:

Biden vs. Trump:

Clinton ’16 voters:
Biden 90%
Trump 5%
not sure 5%

Trump ’16 voters:
Trump 84%
Biden 12%
not sure 3%

But for Harris vs. Trump…

Clinton ’16 voters:
Harris 74%
Trump 4%
not sure 21%

Trump ’16 voters:
Trump 83%
Harris 8%
not sure 9%

Relatedly, the undecided #s vary a lot for younger voters depending on the matchup, with Sanders vs. Trump especially having very few undecideds compared to the other matchups:

Sanders vs. Trump…
age 18-29:
Sanders 63%
Trump 20%
not sure 17%

age 65+:
Sanders 54%
Trump 39%
not sure 7%

Harris vs. Trump…
age 18-29:
Harris 28%
Trump 22%
not sure 50%

age 65+:
Harris 44%
Trump 40%
not sure 15%

Trump’s best age cohort in most of the matchups is actually voters between 30 and 45.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, John Delaney's strategy has been a success.    If he had waited another ~1.5 years to announce his candidacy, he would faded into obscurity faster than Buddy Roemer.  But his bizarre decision to launch his candidacy ~2.5 years before any primary votes are cast has actually garnered enough media attention to get one polling firm to include him in a national poll.

[President Johnson]

Too bad there is no polling with Steve Bullock.

Harris needs more name recognition. She should be able to beat Trump.

[Kingpoleon]

Junk Poll. Delaney will win 99%+ of the PV.

[TheSaint250]

Elizabeth Warren is polling worse because she's a woman. I hope people realize that. But by all means, queue the other justifications.

...what?

[Beet]

Polls at this phase mean very little. Republicans should be worried Trump is only polling at 38%, which even when you add in people coming home, and so on, leaves Trump with the same vote share he got last time. If Democrats can consolidate the opposition vote, they have a chance, even with the Electoral College working against them.

[badgate]

this is just bad for both candidates (Trump is tied with an obscure candidate, and Delaney isn't beating Trump.

Your signature is hilarious; well played

[Alabama_Indy10]

Is this poll junk? Because most polls that show Trump or other Republicans doing well are considered junk!

[mcmikk]

Junk Poll. Delaney will win 99%+ of the PV.