Why was California only Likely D in 2000?

[twenty42]

It started to turn in 1988, going from Safe R to Lean R. It was a Safe D state in 1992 and 1996, and it was Safe D from 2004 on.

Having said this, it got a slightly different treatment in 2000, going by newspapers of the time and Election Night videos. It was marked by most prognosticators as Likely D, and news anchors talked about it on Election Night as a state Gore would probably win, but not automatically. It wasn't REALLY in contention, but it wasn't the stone-cold lock it was in the previous two elections and the four subsequent ones.

It ended up being called at 11:00 Eastern and it voted D+11.3, but I wonder what glimmer of hope was seen for Republicans in the state in 2000 as opposed to every other election since 1988.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's weird that it was likely in 2000 and safe in 2004, cause Cali was closer in 2004 than 2000.

[White Trash]

Wait, why was it Safe D in '92?

[DrScholl]

Bush spent quite a bit of money there and made campaign stops, which gave the idea that it was somewhat competitive. Besides that, Perot picked up a lot of votes there in his runs and perhaps the prognosticators were not sure about where those votes would land in a race with less of a third party factor.

[libertpaulian]

Wait, why was it Safe D in '92?

It WAS a Tossup, but as the fall campaign went on, it became safer for Clinton.  Think of it as a comparison to Nevada or New Mexico in 2008.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Suburbs there were a lot more R friendly back then, and made the state significantly closer.

[Mr. Smith]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

California went Republican every year from 1952-1988 except for the LBJ '64 landslide.

California was more red in 1984 than Texas was in 2012.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

California went Republican every year from 1952-1988 except for the LBJ '64 landslide.

California was more red in 1984 than Texas was in 2012.

California leaned democratic in 1984.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

California went Republican every year from 1952-1988 except for the LBJ '64 landslide.

California was more red in 1984 than Texas was in 2012.

California leaned democratic in 1984.

[Mr. Smith]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

California went Republican every year from 1952-1988 except for the LBJ '64 landslide.

California was more red in 1984 than Texas was in 2012.

What part of "with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides do you not understand"?

Discounting those, California never went R by more than 4 points. It's little different from Wisconsin's D Lean that only gave out this time because Hillary failed to visit....that and the Cheesehead Mafia working overtime.

[TheLeftwardTide]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

California went Republican every year from 1952-1988 except for the LBJ '64 landslide.

California was more red in 1984 than Texas was in 2012.

What part of "with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides do you not understand"?

Discounting those, California never went R by more than 4 points. It's little different from Wisconsin's D Lean that only gave out this time because Hillary failed to visit....that and the Cheesehead Mafia working overtime.

You did make a mistake in saying that California went to JFK in 1960...it didn't. Other than that, your general idea is much more correct.

[Mr. Smith]

It wasn't "Safe R" at any point after 1960 when JFK initially won the state, with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides (where the state was actually to the left of the nation just ftr)

But the answer is that Bush tried to make inroads, and failed.

California went Republican every year from 1952-1988 except for the LBJ '64 landslide.

California was more red in 1984 than Texas was in 2012.

What part of "with the exceptions of 1980 and the two landslides do you not understand"?

Discounting those, California never went R by more than 4 points. It's little different from Wisconsin's D Lean that only gave out this time because Hillary failed to visit....that and the Cheesehead Mafia working overtime.

You did make a mistake in saying that California went to JFK in 1960...it didn't. Other than that, your general idea is much more correct.

Initially, the outlets did call it for JFK, wasn't until the absentee ballots were counted that Nixon flipped it back.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

While the State of California swung about 2% more Republican in 2004 from 2000, only 2 counties actually flipped, both from Republican to Democrat, and both were large streak breakers.

Mono County, Republican from 1944 to 2000, Democrat in 2004
Alpine County, Republican from 1940 to 2000, Democrat in 2004