Does a dem win in Arizona require that the Democrats win Maricopa? County?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:40:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Does a dem win in Arizona require that the Democrats win Maricopa? County?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Does a dem win in Arizona require that the Democrats win Maricopa? County?  (Read 2353 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 24, 2017, 08:46:58 AM »

discuss
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,234
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2017, 09:20:41 AM »

Not necessarily. Ds do need to keep Maricopa close though. What saved Trump in 2016 is that he over-performed in more rural counties.
Logged
TheLeftwardTide
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 988
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2017, 09:23:47 AM »

You don't have to win Maricopa to win Arizona if you're a Democrat, look at Clinton 1996. You do have to keep it close though. The AZ-Sen race is one to closely observe; I think Sinema (sadly) already has the nomination in the bag, so it would be interesting how she does against Flake or Ward.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2017, 11:46:18 AM »

Not quite; you just need to keep it very close. Outstate Arizona is slightly more Democratic than Maricopa County.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2017, 12:38:03 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?
Logged
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,481


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2017, 02:16:31 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?
Maricopa is the largest county and pretty much equal in PVI to the state.
Logged
Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,969


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2017, 03:25:52 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2017, 03:56:05 PM »
« Edited: August 24, 2017, 04:00:16 PM by RINO Tom »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2017, 04:02:55 PM »

Yes
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2017, 04:03:22 PM »


Good analysis.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2017, 04:07:41 PM »

No. Democrats can win AZ without Maricopa County, although it's unlikely.
Logged
Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,969


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2017, 04:08:43 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Third party voters aren't all republican leaners. The libertarian candidate flirted with single payer and a carbon tax.
Logged
GlobeSoc
The walrus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2017, 04:16:38 PM »

Depends on the candidate. Sinema, definitely. Other candidates, maybe not. The thing is that the Maricopa PVI is so close to the state's that small effects can change the county winner in a tied race
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2017, 04:23:46 PM »

No. They certainly have to win 46-47% and hold the GOP under 50%, assuming no major trends elsewhere or there relative to the state as a whole.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2017, 04:38:58 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Trump added 19k votes from Romney's total....Clinton added 136k from Obama's.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2017, 05:11:07 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Trump added 19k votes from Romney's total....Clinton added 136k from Obama's.

Didn't the county grow by more than both of those combined during that timeframe?...
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2017, 06:07:58 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Trump added 19k votes from Romney's total....Clinton added 136k from Obama's.

Didn't the county grow by more than both of those combined during that timeframe?...

Oh wait, that's the statewide numbers....lol, oops.

In Maricopa it's even worse.   Clinton added 100k voters from Obama's total....Trump LOST 2k voters from Romney's total.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2017, 06:54:14 PM »

A Democrat doesn't need Maricopa to win, but it's unlikely they'll win the state without it, at least if 2016 trends continue.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2017, 07:22:46 PM »

I wouldn't say it's absolutely necessary - Bill Clinton won AZ in 1996 without winning Maricopa Co. outright.

However, if the Democrats can actually flip Maricopa Co., then it will certainly increase their chances of winning AZ overall.

The difference between 2016 and 1996 was that Bill Clinton did better in rural AZ than Hillary.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2017, 08:24:06 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Third party voters aren't all republican leaners. The libertarian candidate flirted with single payer and a carbon tax.

Libertarians are just republicans who want to smoke weed/feel smugly superior to both of the mainstream Parties. Similarly, I also believe that to be the case because I want to feel smugly superior to libertarians.

Libertarians are young males who want to feel tough by voting libertarian even though it's a numbskull political philosophy.
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2017, 09:33:41 PM »

While Bill Clinton Won AZ without Maricopa in '96, the circumstances of the state have changed. The eastern rural part of our state (Graham, Gila,Pinal,Cochise,Apache & Greenlee counties) which were strong supporters of the Clintons in '96 gave Trump huge margins in '16.

The current conditions would require a Democrat to win Maricopa to pull the state ver since Dems don't have the eastern rural counties on their side anymore.
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2017, 09:36:34 PM »

Ann Kirkpatrick won 39% of Maricopa County, She was unknown in the Phoenix metro area while being more known in her rural district.

Kyrsten Sinema is very well known in the metro area(and popular might I add), putting her in a better position overall.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2017, 09:19:37 AM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats
.

This is not true. All the countywide Democratic candidates got a higher percentage of the vote than Clinton (at least 46%), indicating that it wasn't just a Trump-specific thing. Democrats won Sheriff by 13 points, Recorder by 1 point, and lost superintendent by 3, treasurer by 7 and County Attorney (against a two-term incumbent) by 5. I think it's entirely fair game to suggest that this might not be the staunch Republican county anymore that you think it is.

Only McCain really got a significant chunk of the Clinton voters, and that's probably a function of him being an institution in the state.

I'm not saying it's a "staunch Republican county."  I just don't think Democrats can make the blanket statement that they have to win "metro counties" to win every state; that's not a one-size-fits-all strategy for them, even after the 2016 election.  I HIGHLY doubt a winning Democrat in South Carolina is going to do better in the SC suburbs than the rural areas, I HIGHLY doubt a winning Democrat in Wisconsin is further reducing WOW margins rather than winning more rural areas, I don't think a winning Democrat in Ohio is winning the Republican suburbs of Cincinnati rather than swinging back Obama-Trump voters in places like Youngstown, etc.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2017, 04:24:09 AM »

In the presidential race? Almost certainly. Sure, I could maybe see Maricopa voting 1 point to the right of the state in 2020, but definitely not more than that. Generally speaking, Maricopa is exactly the place where Democrats need to do well if they want to win AZ in a presidential election. Yes, Bill Clinton lost Maricopa in 1996, but he also lost Fairfax County. The 1996 results tell us nothing about what is likely to happen in 2020.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2017, 08:48:54 AM »

In the presidential race? Almost certainly. Sure, I could maybe see Maricopa voting 1 point to the right of the state in 2020, but definitely not more than that. Generally speaking, Maricopa is exactly the place where Democrats need to do well if they want to win AZ in a presidential election. Yes, Bill Clinton lost Maricopa in 1996, but he also lost Fairfax County. The 1996 results tell us nothing about what is likely to happen in 2020.

While true, I think you put way too much emphasis on what role 2016 will play in predicting non-Trump elections.  If the GOP has a different nominee in 2020, a 2020 election will have just as much to do with a Romney winning map as it would a Trump winning map; I would argue a median between the two.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.