In the presidential race? Almost certainly. Sure, I could maybe see Maricopa voting 1 point to the right of the state in 2020, but definitely not more than that. Generally speaking, Maricopa is exactly the place where Democrats need to do well if they want to win AZ in a presidential election. Yes, Bill Clinton lost Maricopa in 1996, but he also lost Fairfax County. The 1996 results tell us nothing about what is likely to happen in 2020.
While true, I think you put way too much emphasis on what role 2016 will play in predicting non-Trump elections. If the GOP has a different nominee in 2020, a 2020 election will have just as much to do with a Romney winning map as it would a Trump winning map; I would argue a median between the two.
This is true to some extent (but like PNM said, we also have to consider the impact demographic changes have had in places like Orange County, Maricopa County, etc., so it's a bit risky to simply assume that a less "Trump-ish" nominee will do significantly better there), but I don't think "Trumpism" will just disappear in 2020 or whatever. Or do you believe someone like Kasich or Sandoval could win a Republican Primary any time soon?
