Does a dem win in Arizona require that the Democrats win Maricopa? County? (user search)
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  Does a dem win in Arizona require that the Democrats win Maricopa? County? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Does a dem win in Arizona require that the Democrats win Maricopa? County?  (Read 2392 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


« on: August 24, 2017, 04:38:58 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Trump added 19k votes from Romney's total....Clinton added 136k from Obama's.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2017, 06:07:58 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats' percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Trump added 19k votes from Romney's total....Clinton added 136k from Obama's.

Didn't the county grow by more than both of those combined during that timeframe?...

Oh wait, that's the statewide numbers....lol, oops.

In Maricopa it's even worse.   Clinton added 100k voters from Obama's total....Trump LOST 2k voters from Romney's total.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2017, 08:24:06 PM »

Why would a Democratic win in Arizona necessitate that they win one of its most Republican counties?

Maricopa voted left of the state in 2016.

I wouldn't get too confident in any sort of trend just because of one election, but that's just me.  The county had a huge 7.5% third party vote, and these are Democrats percentages there the past several elections:

2016: 44.8%
2012: 43.6%
2008: 43.9%
2004: 42.3%

While Trump did drop down a lot from Romney's 2012 percentage (54.3% to 47.7%), hardly any of those voters felt comfortable deflecting to the Democrats.

Third party voters aren't all republican leaners. The libertarian candidate flirted with single payer and a carbon tax.

Libertarians are just republicans who want to smoke weed/feel smugly superior to both of the mainstream Parties. Similarly, I also believe that to be the case because I want to feel smugly superior to libertarians.

Libertarians are young males who want to feel tough by voting libertarian even though it's a numbskull political philosophy.
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