AL-Senate Leadership Fund: Moore +4 in GOP primary runoff

[The Other Castro]

Roy Moore - 45%
Luther Strange - 41%
Undecided - 9%

Senate Leadership Fund is McConnell's group backing Strange, so this is somewhat of an internal poll for Strange (and still has him trailing).

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/08/roy_moore_luther_strange_in_st.html

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent, but why do the numbers only add to 95%?

[Canis]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent.

One can hope

[Matty]

junk poll

moore has this

[Fudotei]

Strange isn't an incumbent, mind. He's appointed. That appointment (be Gov Bentley while he was supposedly investigating Bentley) is half of the reason he isn't winning the Senate race right now.

(Other being McConnell)

[Alabama_Indy10]

Strange isn't an incumbent, mind. He's appointed. That appointment (be Gov Bentley while he was supposedly investigating Bentley) is half of the reason he isn't winning the Senate race right now.

(Other being McConnell)

He's currently holding the office so he is the incumbent.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Those outside of Moore's core know that a vote for Moore in the runoff is a vote to risk Jones winning the general. They'll go with Strange because of his electability - not unanimously, but enough for Strange to narrowly win the runoff.

[The Other Castro]

Or maybe they just like Moore better and will vote for him over Strange. Sometimes the simpler answer is better. I doubt many Republicans are taking Jones seriously.

[windjammer]

Moore is a more electable candidate than Strange.

[MT Treasurer]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent, but why do the numbers only add to 95%?

Those outside of Moore's core know that a vote for Moore in the runoff is a vote to risk Jones winning the general. They'll go with Strange because of his electability - not unanimously, but enough for Strange to narrowly win the runoff.

[citation needed]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent, but why do the numbers only add to 95%?

Those outside of Moore's core know that a vote for Moore in the runoff is a vote to risk Jones winning the general. They'll go with Strange because of his electability - not unanimously, but enough for Strange to narrowly win the runoff.

[citation needed]

Strange = Classic establishment republican in the mold of Richard Shelby, who is beloved in the state.
Moore = Firebreathing reactionary jerk who makes Sessions look moderate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If the Grand Mufti of Mobile Roy Moore gets elected....I give him a year before he gets censured in the Senate

I hope and pray that if he somehow wins the runoff, Alabama is smart enough to elect Mr. Jones. Strange should pull through though.

[Alabama_Indy10]

If the Grand Mufti of Mobile Roy Moore gets elected....I give him a year before he gets censured in the Senate

I hope and pray that if he somehow wins the runoff, Alabama is smart enough to elect Mr. Jones. Strange should pull through though.

I'm pretty sure that Moore will win the runoff and general.. Most Brooks voters will go to him and since turnout will likely be low, Moore's highly motivated base will turn out for him.

[MT Treasurer]

Strange = Classic establishment republican in the mold of Richard Shelby, who is beloved in the state.
Moore = Firebreathing reactionary jerk who makes Sessions look moderate.

Shelby isn't perceived as being corrupt, can't be tied to an unpopular Bentley administration, has seniority, has visited every county in the state dozens of times and held more than 2000 town halls, has very high approval ratings, is battle-tested, and a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 (his "the Democratic Party left me" shtick goes over well with voters in a state like AL). The guy is basically an institution in AL politics.

[Fudotei]

This isn't the shiniest of two turds, folks -- the favorability data says Moore is much better liked (especially among evangelicals) than Strange. He's just a poor candidate. What's with assuming Jones will do so well to make the seat competitive?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This isn't the shiniest of two turds, folks -- the favorability data says Moore is much better liked (especially among evangelicals) than Strange. He's just a poor candidate. What's with assuming Jones will do so well to make the seat competitive?

Strange is just a standard republican, but Moore is more reactionary than most tea partiers and will infuriate Democrats, Independents, and Moderate Republicans in a way that has never been seen before. Maybe he still wins narrowly because it's Alabama, but there's no way Moore could ever achieve the 25 to 30 point victories that Shelby and Sessions got in the years they had opponents.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly I don't know anymore if Moore being the nominee helps the Democrats' chances of picking up this seat (what little chances there may be). His theoretical risk from being outside the norm may be offset by his ability to turn out Republicans in Alabama, which Strange may not be good at.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Strange, McConnell/NRSC will run as many "A vote for Jones is a vote for Nancy Pelosi" ads as are needed to win big. With Moore, I wouldn't rule out the NRSC refusing to help him due to Moore being so anti-establishment.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Strange, McConnell/NRSC will run as many "A vote for Jones is a vote for Nancy Pelosi" ads as are needed to win big. With Moore, I wouldn't rule out the NRSC refusing to help him due to Moore being so anti-establishment.

And risk losing the Senate in 2018 and Jones becoming entrenched? Color me skeptical.

Even in a situation where Dems gain the AL seat, they'd still need to hold every seat they have in 2018, plus pickup NV/AZ. So unless the GOP dismantles to a point where they can't even defeat Claire McCaskill, they'd still have the senate.

[PragmaticPopulist]

With Strange, McConnell/NRSC will run as many "A vote for Jones is a vote for Nancy Pelosi" ads as are needed to win big. With Moore, I wouldn't rule out the NRSC refusing to help him due to Moore being so anti-establishment.

The GOPe will line up behind Moore if he gets the nomination, for the same reason they lined up behind Trump.

[Coraxion]

Only Atlas would think that Jones has a higher chance than McCaskill.

[MT Treasurer]

Even in a situation where Dems gain the AL seat, they'd still need to hold every seat they have in 2018, plus pickup NV/AZ. So unless the GOP dismantles to a point where they can't even defeat Claire McCaskill, they'd still have the senate.

1.) I agree that they will beat McCaskill, but she could always retire and a more electable Democrat could win the nomination. Unlikely, but possible.
2.) Even with that in mind, why would they voluntarily give away a Senate seat to the Democrats? Having 52 instead of 51 seats makes a big difference when it comes to passing legislation, obviously.