Which state would flip to a Democrat first: South Carolina or Missouri
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  Which state would flip to a Democrat first: South Carolina or Missouri
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Question: South Carolina or Missouri?
#1
South Carolina
 
#2
Missouri
 
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Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Which state would flip to a Democrat first: South Carolina or Missouri  (Read 4405 times)
DFL
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« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2017, 01:25:29 PM »

Missouri, since either state flipping would probably imply a double-digit PV landslide for the Democrats, and as others have said, Missouri is more elastic.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2017, 01:29:28 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2017, 02:00:57 PM by ERM64man »

5 of the 10 fastest growing counties in South Carolina are trending Democratic. SC only slightly trended Republican. MO heavily trended Republican. Clinton was a weak candidate. The PVI of SC-07 is fairly close to the statewide PVI. Archie Parnell lost a close race that wasn't even expected to be competitive. In Missouri, Trump did far better than the statewide PVI. I don't think Missouri is elastic enough anymore to flip before South Carolina. Which state did Clinton do better with white voters? Which state has a larger percentage of minority voters?
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #27 on: August 26, 2017, 02:45:39 PM »

5 of the 10 fastest growing counties in South Carolina are trending Democratic. SC only slightly trended Republican. MO heavily trended Republican. Clinton was a weak candidate. The PVI of SC-07 is fairly close to the statewide PVI. Archie Parnell lost a close race that wasn't even expected to be competitive. In Missouri, Trump did far better than the statewide PVI. I don't think Missouri is elastic enough anymore to flip before South Carolina. Which state did Clinton do better with white voters? Which state has a larger percentage of minority voters?

South Carolina has a higher minority percentage but also a more Republican white vote.
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #28 on: August 26, 2017, 03:36:20 PM »

5 of the 10 fastest growing counties in South Carolina are trending Democratic. SC only slightly trended Republican. MO heavily trended Republican. Clinton was a weak candidate. The PVI of SC-07 is fairly close to the statewide PVI. Archie Parnell lost a close race that wasn't even expected to be competitive. In Missouri, Trump did far better than the statewide PVI. I don't think Missouri is elastic enough anymore to flip before South Carolina. Which state did Clinton do better with white voters? Which state has a larger percentage of minority voters?

South Carolina has a higher minority percentage but also a more Republican white vote.
Did Clinton get a larger share of the white vote in Missouri than South Carolina in 2016?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #29 on: August 26, 2017, 03:54:31 PM »

5 of the 10 fastest growing counties in South Carolina are trending Democratic. SC only slightly trended Republican. MO heavily trended Republican. Clinton was a weak candidate. The PVI of SC-07 is fairly close to the statewide PVI. Archie Parnell lost a close race that wasn't even expected to be competitive. In Missouri, Trump did far better than the statewide PVI. I don't think Missouri is elastic enough anymore to flip before South Carolina. Which state did Clinton do better with white voters? Which state has a larger percentage of minority voters?

South Carolina has a higher minority percentage but also a more Republican white vote.
Did Clinton get a larger share of the white vote in Missouri than South Carolina in 2016?

Yes. Clinton got 24% of the white vote in SC while getting 28% of the white vote in Missouri (CNN exit polls).
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I知 not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #30 on: August 26, 2017, 09:04:33 PM »

Which state has a faster growing Hispanic population?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #31 on: August 26, 2017, 09:08:27 PM »

Which state has a faster growing Hispanic population?

Both states had Latinos as 4% of the electorate in 2016. I don't know how they voted (since there wasn't data on it) but they probably won't be a factor in either state in 4-8 years. Hispanics are generally concentrated in the southwest, Florida, and in urban centers in the northeast.

White voters and black turnout will be much bigger factors in flipping either state.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2017, 08:39:33 AM »

South Carolina. Missouri is moving to the right, and SC to the left.

Going to need a source for that...

McCain: 53.87%
Romney: 54.56%
Trump: 54.90%

I know some of you nerds prefer "TRENDS" over "SWINGS," but it's not "moving to the left," LOL.
I was just thinking more overall, if demographic trends continue.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2017, 02:25:27 PM »

Missouri, obviously
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super6646
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« Reply #34 on: August 28, 2017, 04:25:49 PM »

South Carolina. Missouri is moving to the right, and SC to the left.

Going to need a source for that...

McCain: 53.87%
Romney: 54.56%
Trump: 54.90%

I know some of you nerds prefer "TRENDS" over "SWINGS," but it's not "moving to the left," LOL.

But SC trending and swung Republican; so it moved to the right.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #35 on: August 30, 2017, 01:24:28 AM »

South Carolina
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2017, 06:16:35 PM »

Missouri. It has more elasticity.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2017, 10:57:43 AM »

4 years ago,  it would easily be MO. Now, it's a good question. It depends on how much less open rural MO has become during a landslide scenario.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2017, 11:40:54 AM »

4 years ago,  it would easily be MO. Now, it's a good question. It depends on how much less open rural MO has become during a landslide scenario.

I guess I hadn't really considered this, too, but wasn't that special election in rural SC (that got totally overshadowed by the GA-6 one) surprisngly close, too?  I'll admit this is a pretty good question during a Trump Presidency, but I think SC is more solidly GOP at its core.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2017, 12:06:11 PM »

I guess I hadn't really considered this, too, but wasn't that special election in rural SC (that got totally overshadowed by the GA-6 one) surprisngly close, too? 

Yes, but it had much lower turnout, and IIRC the Democrat was polling down 10 points. At the same time the SC Democrat didn't get many resources.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2017, 06:37:54 PM »

Cant see either. MO is very rural and SC is becoming a retirement state fast
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #41 on: September 08, 2017, 06:17:02 PM »

This.
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Moneyball
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« Reply #42 on: September 08, 2017, 08:15:36 PM »

I doubt either does soon. However, if one state was going to become solidly, or even leaning blue, I would say it's SCar. Far more likely to have a demographic shift than Missouri, and Dems have been pushing to get states like the Carolinas on their side of the ledger. Losing Missouri would represent a disaster for the GOP, even if it's more likely to flip in a wave election.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2017, 11:02:23 PM »

South Carolina is probably a better fit for someone like Wyden, Gillibrand, Biden, Klobuchar, Patrick, or Booker. About even with Sanders, Warren, Harris, Franken, De Blasio, and the others.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #44 on: September 21, 2017, 10:46:21 AM »

St. Louis and Kansas City are both bleeding population. It's actually the Springfield area (namely Christian County) that's experiencing the most growth per 2010 U.S. Census data and recent estimates. This county is becoming more suburban and the Springfield area attracts a lot of retirees due to Branson in nearby Taney County.

St. Charles County, the wealthiest county in the state, had the second highest percentage of population growth from 2000-2010. Hillary didn't win a single precinct in St. Charles County (or Jefferson County, which contains the southern suburbs and exurbs of St. Louis) yet she did win two precincts in Cape Girardeau County, the hometown of right-wing blowhard whale Rush Limbaugh.

Democrats are in freefall here in Missouri. It's anecdotal but I hear it all the time about how Democrats are anti-white anti-gun anti-Christian blah blah blah. You go anywhere in this area and every business has Faux News on their TVs. There are still Ted Cruz signs and billboards in Cape County. There was also a small town in Southeast Missouri that came together and prayed for lawbreaker Kim Davis when she was thrown in the slammer for not doing her job of issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. The Ferguson crap and this recent madness just intensifies the racial divide in this state. Racial polarization is what's turning Missouri into the next Mississippi, along with the faux whining of the so-called "Christians" here who sincerely feel that they are being persecuted since they cannot persecute anyone who goes against their interpretations of the Bible. There is a Catholic church/school here in Cape with signs plastered on their property that say "Defend the First Amendment/Defend Religious Freedom" (i.e. defend my right to tell you who you can and cannot marry).

The deplorables are taking over this state, so I'm voting South Carolina.
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Orser67
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« Reply #45 on: September 21, 2017, 03:33:53 PM »

Missouri.

Democrats have a higher floor in South Carolina, largely because non-Hispanic whites make up 64% of the population in South Carolina compared to 80% of the population in Missouri.

But white voters in the Midwest (or...whatever you want to call Missouri) are far more elastic than white voters in the Deep South, where voters are deeply racially polarized. For the same reason, a Senate candidate like Jason Kander wouldn't have had a chance in South Carolina, but he very well could have won Missouri in a slightly better year for Democrats.
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Sirius_
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« Reply #46 on: September 21, 2017, 08:46:19 PM »

As a native of the Greenville MSA, I can say the it's certainly trending left. There are many northern and midwestern liberals moving to the city, and Grenville county was almost competitive in 2016. I also see potential but less likely shifts in Spartanburg and Anderson counties. Spartanburg did elect a pro-lgbt mayor, and Anderson elected a democratic mayor. They'll both take some work (Powdersville, the second most populous and fastest growing community in Anderson county, votes extremely conservative for example) but sometime in the future its possible. What should really scare republicans are the left-trends in Columbia, Charleston, and Greenville. The first two are already lost and Greenville, which they need in order to win, is due to flip soon.

Missouri, on the other hand, has been trending R since 2008. It seems like the trend isn't going away and the state won't be voting democrat for a long time. While a fluke is possible, statistically speaking SC is far more likely to be flipped than MO.   
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Frodo
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« Reply #47 on: September 21, 2017, 08:57:14 PM »

As a native of the Greenville MSA, I can say the it's certainly trending left. There are many northern and midwestern liberals moving to the city, and Grenville county was almost competitive in 2016. I also see potential but less likely shifts in Spartanburg and Anderson counties. Spartanburg did elect a pro-lgbt mayor, and Anderson elected a democratic mayor. They'll both take some work (Powdersville, the second most populous and fastest growing community in Anderson county, votes extremely conservative for example) but sometime in the future its possible. What should really scare republicans are the left-trends in Columbia, Charleston, and Greenville. The first two are already lost and Greenville, which they need in order to win, is due to flip soon.

Missouri, on the other hand, has been trending R since 2008. It seems like the trend isn't going away and the state won't be voting democrat for a long time. While a fluke is possible, statistically speaking SC is far more likely to be flipped than MO.  

So white liberals (I'm assuming most of those liberal snowbirds moving from the northeast and Midwest are white) are turning South Carolina Atlas red?
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Sirius_
Ninja0428
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« Reply #48 on: September 22, 2017, 12:56:02 PM »

As a native of the Greenville MSA, I can say the it's certainly trending left. There are many northern and midwestern liberals moving to the city, and Grenville county was almost competitive in 2016. I also see potential but less likely shifts in Spartanburg and Anderson counties. Spartanburg did elect a pro-lgbt mayor, and Anderson elected a democratic mayor. They'll both take some work (Powdersville, the second most populous and fastest growing community in Anderson county, votes extremely conservative for example) but sometime in the future its possible. What should really scare republicans are the left-trends in Columbia, Charleston, and Greenville. The first two are already lost and Greenville, which they need in order to win, is due to flip soon.

Missouri, on the other hand, has been trending R since 2008. It seems like the trend isn't going away and the state won't be voting democrat for a long time. While a fluke is possible, statistically speaking SC is far more likely to be flipped than MO.  

So white liberals (I'm assuming most of those liberal snowbirds moving from the northeast and Midwest are white) are turning South Carolina Atlas red?
Eventually
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