Which state would flip to a Democrat first: South Carolina or Missouri

[RINO Tom]

South Carolina.   Missouri has too much rural area,  South Carolina is relatively small.   That makes a huge difference.

Plus I believe South Carolina has a larger AA population.

I mean, as was said earlier, South Carolina's metro areas vote to the right of the rural areas.

[RINO Tom]

I said Missouri, because it's more elastic than SC, and cities and suburbs in SC, especially Spartanburg, are actually trending R. Spartanburg County is unusual in that while it's growing about as fast as Richland County, it seems to be attracting non-college whites instead of young professionals like we see in most other cities in the sunbelt.

Trump won South Carolina's White college graduates by 31 points, so I'm not sure why an influx of them into anywhere would be good for SC Dems...?

[RINO Tom]

SC, but both states will remain solidly Republican for a long time. I could see SC trending Democratic, but like I said it's a stretch at this point. MO is a lost cause for Democrats, and it will become even more obvious in 2018.

The fastest growing areas of SC are the most Republican, unlike the more Democratic rural ones.  It's equally likely it trends R.

[RINO Tom]

SC, but both states will remain solidly Republican for a long time. I could see SC trending Democratic, but like I said it's a stretch at this point. MO is a lost cause for Democrats, and it will become even more obvious in 2018.

The fastest growing areas of SC are the most Republican, unlike the more Democratic rural ones.  It's equally likely it trends R.

You keep saying this, but what areas are you talking about?

The fastest growing areas are in the Charleston MSA, and Charleston Cty both trended and swung D in 2016.  Do you have some precinct level data that breaks it down better?

Also Richland and Lexington Counties (Columbia) trended/swung D.  Greenville Cty swung/trended D....

So what exactly are you referring to?

If you're just talking about margin; well Clinton won Columbia and Charleston.  Trump won Greenville but not by spectacularly better margins than rural areas... better than some, worse than others.  I mean, sure, I get that Allendale Cty is 76% D, and Dems do well in the black belt, but not every rural county in SC is in the black belt, Tom.

1) Even though it fits the cultural grievances of many on this forum (on both sides) like a glove, I don't think 2016 signaled some type of political future of a Middle America GOP vs. a cosmopolitan Democratic Party.  Politics has always been and will always be more complicated than that, and I think there are tons of areas that swung to Clinton that it's frankly laughable to consider "Democratic areas" or even remotely "ripe for gains."

2) Clinton won 54% of the "rural vote" in the exit polls for SC, while Trump won 62% of the suburban vote.  Suburban voters are the bedrock of the SCGOP, and that should be obvious.

[RINO Tom]

Regarding your first point, I wasn't arguing that SC MSAs are ripe for gains.  I also wasn't making some over-arching theory about the political future of the US.  What I was questioning was your assertion that the metro areas are more R-leaning than the rural areas.  I haven't seen any data to support that, especially given that Clinton won two out of three metro areas, and even Greenville's margins weren't significantly more R than rural areas, except for some of the black belt counties.  I will grant you that Greenville is more R than the black belt.  That is backed up by the data, but that's not what your claim was.

Regarding your second point, your claim wasn't about suburban voters.  It was, and I quote, "South Carolina's metro areas vote to the right of the rural areas."  Metro areas include both suburban and urban (and actually rural, the way MSAs are drawn, but I digress).  I'm going off of the actual vote counts from these counties (Charleston, Richland, Greenville) on the Atlas.  That would seem to me to be more accurate than an "exit poll."

Those vote counts do not support your point, unless you are limiting rural areas to the Black Belt.  Even then, the claim wouldn't be entirely accurate since Columbia had a higher D % than most Black Belt counties.

According to the Census website, these are the ten counties that experienced the most growth in South Carolina last year:

1. Lancaster (Charlotte, NC MSA)
2. Horry (Myrtle Beach MSA)
3. Berkeley (Charleston MSA)
4. York (Charlotte, NC MSA)
5. Jasper (Hilton Head MSA)
6. Beaufort (Hilton Head MSA)
7. Charleston (Charleston city and suburbs)
8. Greenville (Greenville city and suburbs)
9. Lexington (Columbia MSA)
10. Spartanburg (Greenville MSA)

8 of those 10 counties went for Trump, including the top 4:

1. Lancaster: 60.9% Trump, 35.4% Clinton
2. Horry: 67.3% Trump, Clinton 29.5%
3. Berkeley: 56.0% Trump, 38.6% Clinton
4. York: 58.4% Trump, 36.4% Clinton
5. Jasper: 54.8% Clinton, 42.9% Trump
6. Beaufort: 54.9% Trump, 40.6% Clinton
7. Charleston: 50.6% Clinton, 42.8% Trump
8. Greenville: 59.4% Trump, 34.7% Clinton
9. Lexington: 65.6% Trump, 28.8% Clinton
10. Spartanburg: 63.0% Trump, 33.0% Clinton

Clinton was able to get out of the 30s in just THREE of the ten fastest growing counties in the state.  Additionally, only TWO of the fifteen counties she carried in the state made this list.  Yet somehow I imagine this won't turn into a conversation about how SC might be slipping even further away from the Democrats??  That destinction can only be given to states like West Virginia or Kentucky, as they fit the narrative better of how some partisans on BOTH sides are choosing to frame our political reality in the age of Trump.  I apologize if I worded my first post poorly and even used some hyperbole, but as Timmy said in his other post, it's just frustrating to see such narrow-minded, black-and-white and - frankly - Wulfric-esque analysis of our political coalitions and trends on a site that is supposed to be dedicated to the complexities of such things.

[RINO Tom]

South Carolina. Missouri is moving to the right, and SC to the left.

Going to need a source for that...

McCain: 53.87%
Romney: 54.56%
Trump: 54.90%

I know some of you nerds prefer "TRENDS" over "SWINGS," but it's not "moving to the left," LOL.

[RINO Tom]

4 years ago,  it would easily be MO. Now, it's a good question. It depends on how much less open rural MO has become during a landslide scenario.

I guess I hadn't really considered this, too, but wasn't that special election in rural SC (that got totally overshadowed by the GA-6 one) surprisngly close, too?  I'll admit this is a pretty good question during a Trump Presidency, but I think SC is more solidly GOP at its core.