Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[SoLongAtlas]

could this become a general 2017 atlantic hurricane thread if we're going to be talking about Irma here?

Seconded considering the 2017 season is predicted to be really busy.

[ltomlinson31]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

[BudgieForce]

Looking at the forecasts on Irma's route, nobody is really sure where its going. All we can do is be calm and prepared.

[ltomlinson31]

Irma's predicted to reach Cat 4 by next Thursday. Below is the spaghetti prediction model:



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149

The chances of the US getting hit again are unfortunately high if this model holds true and Irma holds to a center tack.

Wow, I just saw that this storm is already a Category 2. It's already expected to intensify to a Category 3 in 12 hours.

It was just upgraded to a Category 3....in much less time than expected.

That makes two major Hurricanes within a week.

[adrac]

Irma's predicted to reach Cat 4 by next Thursday. Below is the spaghetti prediction model:



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149

The chances of the US getting hit again are unfortunately high if this model holds true and Irma holds to a center tack.

That map is worrisome, it could still hit anywhere.

[Strudelcutie4427]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

Followed by Katia! Russia!!!!
Then Lee (may be too racist for certain millennial snowflakes)
Maria. More hispanics. Or Russians
Ahh Nate! There's a good old American name haha

I'm thinking Irma hits like Antigua and the Virgin Islands and maybe Puerto Rico. After that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully it curves between Bermuda and NC, but the gulf/SE are in play. Best hope for the US may be if she goes south and gets ripped up by Hispaniola or Cuba. But that would still kill hundreds

[GeorgiaModerate]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

Followed by Katia! Russia!!!!
Then Lee (may be too racist for certain millennial snowflakes)
Maria. More hispanics
Ahh Nate! There's a good old American name haha

I'm thinking Irma hits like Antigua and the Virgin Islands and maybe Puerto Rico. After that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully it curves between Bermuda and NC, but the gulf/SE are in play. Best hope for the US may be if she goes south and gets ripped up by Hispaniola or Cuba. But that would still kill hundreds

In honor of Nate Silver and Nate Cohn!

[Strudelcutie4427]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

Followed by Katia! Russia!!!!
Then Lee (may be too racist for certain millennial snowflakes)
Maria. More hispanics
Ahh Nate! There's a good old American name haha

I'm thinking Irma hits like Antigua and the Virgin Islands and maybe Puerto Rico. After that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully it curves between Bermuda and NC, but the gulf/SE are in play. Best hope for the US may be if she goes south and gets ripped up by Hispaniola or Cuba. But that would still kill hundreds

In honor of Nate Silver and Nate Cohn!

Or Nate Diaz the UFC fighter if it's bad

[Mike Thick]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/us/houston-contaminated-floodwaters.amp.html

In summary, the floodwater is packed with all kinds of diseases and toxic chemicals -- so much so that, on CNN, someone just said that if your skin touches it you need to wash the area with hot soap.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

In September 2004, both Ivan and Jeanne.

In 2005, there were hurricanes in four consecutive months that hit the US and were at least Category 3 at their peak (although I'm not sure they all were at landfall):

July: Dennis
August: Katrina
September: Rita
October: Wilma

Major hurricane Emily also hit Mexico.  2005 was a crazy year.  They actually went through the whole list of Atlantic names and started using Greek letters (all the way to Zeta).  

[BudgieForce]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

That type of rhetoric is unnecessary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Superbudgie (or other Florida members), is there a heightened awareness there for Irma preparations?  I'd guess that people might be more wary after Harvey.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

That type of rhetoric is unnecessary.

Sorry. Do you live in Tampa? I understand hyperboles are not really the type of things that someone who lives there would want to hear.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected,

I don't know about you, but I consider Puerto Rico and the USVI part of the U.S.  While it's still too early to be sure that the impact will be significant, at the very least they'll be getting rain out of Irma.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected,

I don't know about you, but I consider Puerto Rico and the USVI part of the U.S.  While it's still too early to be sure that the impact will be significant, at the very least they'll be getting rain out of Irma.

Fair point.  Please read "mainland U.S." instead in the quoted post.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Irma's projected path as of 11 EDT tonight. Its looking like they're projecting a Category 4 Hurricane in the Bahamas by Friday. Given the trajectory it looks like SE Florida could get walloped by Harvey's twin sister as a Cat 3/4/5. Worst case scenario this hits Miami. But it looks like its still to early to tell if Irma gets turned north or aims for Florida

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

Yeah, i think the most recent was September 2004 with Ivan (Alabama) and Jeanne (E. Florida), Frances was a Cat 2 and also hit E. Florida that month.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Irma models are continuing to shift westward.  Hurricane watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US & British Virgin Islands.  In the 11am EDT update, the NHC said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looking at it from a purely parochial POV, the current models look great.  Even if Irma hits South Carolina, it'll have been weakened from going up the Florida coast first, with how much depending upon how close to land it gets.  Even so, given where I am, what I have to worry about is a major hurricane that his Charleston going to the Northwest, not one that's heading North.

[TheSaint250]

A local TV station said American and European models say it might shift to the right from Cuba and go straight up the state.

[Strudelcutie4427]

A local TV station said American and European models say it might shift to the right from Cuba and go straight up the state.

May not be too bad if it turns up and makes landfall in Mainland Monroe county (pop 24) since its just swampland. Although if it hits cuba those mountains can really rip Irma apart before she gets to FL

[ProgressiveCanadian]

State of emergency in Florida. This is going to be catastrophic