Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[KingSweden]

NWS forecast has the storm coming straight through Tampa. Winds at 100, gusts at 125. There has been a major increase in the risk for the west coast of Florida in the last 24 hours.

People here are not prepared.

Stay safe.

Related: did anyone see that pic comparing Irma to Andrew? In-sane. All you FL posters, seriously, I hope you're taking precautions to be safe and/or evacuating. God speed.

[JA]

This website is really good for seeing what impacts you will receive from the storm. You can check out your location or other locations using the Euro model (or other models) to see the projected wind gusts, rain, etc...

https://weather.us/forecast/4165565-naples/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

[Ban my account ffs!]

The 12z GFS run has Jose rolling around in the Atlantic before making a direct hit to NYC.  Joe Bastardi is already entertaining a US landfall for Jose but it is too early to tell.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's way too early to be certain of anything other than Jose doing a loop-de-loop. Various models have it going anywhere from Key West to St. John's, Newfoundland after completing the loop.

[Suburbia]

To all the Florida posters:

Be safe.

[Frodo]

Now it looks as if the eye of Hurricane Irma (now back to a category 4) is eyeing Tallahassee:













Florida is going to get hit hard, but this hurricane doesn't seem to be quite as devastating as originally feared with models earlier predicting the eye to go straight up the peninsula.  

We'll see what happens today and tomorrow, though....

[Frodo]

Some more updates:

[JA]

I was actually telling my family the other day when this started trending westward that this storm might end up being the Gulf Coast's Matthew, considering it could parallel and just barely touch the coast, but cause a lot of storm surge damage since the Gulf Coast of Florida is even more prone to it.

[Doimper]

This is possibly a more devastating run than the track up the middle of the state. The storm will be less weakened by land interaction before it impacts Tampa Bay, so you have (probably?) a category four storm either making a direct landfall or sitting just offshore. The west coast of Florida is situated on a relatively shallow continental shelf, and a storm coming right up the coast will act to shove water into all the little inlets along the coast. Double digit storm surge in Tampa Bay is not a good scenario.

Yup, just got upgraded back up to a Cat 4 right before slamming into the Keys.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

hearing explosions outside my house. My neighbors fence exploded earlier and power is flickering like crazy.

[Kringla Heimsins]

So, Irma finally barely missed Tampa? They're really lucky.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here in north Georgia, Atlanta is under a Tropical Storm Warning for the first time ever (although I think they've only been doing inland tropical warnings since about 2000).  It's rainy, windy, and surprisingly cold (~55F).  Most schools and many businesses are closed.  There has been some wind damage reported in the city, but overall it hasn't been too bad so far.

[MasterJedi]

Parents have a condo in the Bonita Springs area (between Ft. Myers and Naples) supposedly just a lot of wind and some trees down, no flooding, no issues besides the power being out. They're not down there now so not as bad as it would have been if a Cat 5 had slammed in.

EDIT: They're 3 miles straight inland so not right on the gulf, don't have that kind of money! lol

[pbrower2a]

NWS forecast has the storm coming straight through Tampa. Winds at 100, gusts at 125. There has been a major increase in the risk for the west coast of Florida in the last 24 hours.

People here are not prepared.

Stay safe.

Related: did anyone see that pic comparing Irma to Andrew? In-sane. All you FL posters, seriously, I hope you're taking precautions to be safe and/or evacuating. God speed.

If I were a Florida resident I might want to spend this autumn no further south than Interstate 70.

[TheSaint250]

Luckily everything seems to be ok from the hurricane. Blessed to know that the damage in my area wasn't as bad as I thought.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NWS forecast has the storm coming straight through Tampa. Winds at 100, gusts at 125. There has been a major increase in the risk for the west coast of Florida in the last 24 hours.

People here are not prepared.

Stay safe.

Related: did anyone see that pic comparing Irma to Andrew? In-sane. All you FL posters, seriously, I hope you're taking precautions to be safe and/or evacuating. God speed.

If I were a Florida resident I might want to spend this autumn no further south than Interstate 70.

This is a crazily large storm.  As of the 11am update, tropical storm force winds extended for up to 415 miles from the center.

[Frodo]

It could have been worse -bear in mind that the damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 cost more than $25 billion:

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[Person Man]

Still can't go to work today...
No power..

[GeorgiaModerate]

To illustrate how powerful and widespread the impact of Irma was, here in Atlanta -- which received a MUCH much lighter impact than Florida did -- there are still tens of thousands of people without power, and several of the area school systems are still closed (although the majority have reopened).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

To illustrate how powerful and widespread the impact of Irma was, here in Atlanta -- which received a MUCH much lighter impact than Florida did -- there are still tens of thousands of people without power, and several of the area school systems are still closed (although the majority have reopened).

Lighter impact, but I doubt Atlanta has put much thought into preventing or recovering from hurricane damage.

[Hammy]

To illustrate how powerful and widespread the impact of Irma was, here in Atlanta -- which received a MUCH much lighter impact than Florida did -- there are still tens of thousands of people without power, and several of the area school systems are still closed (although the majority have reopened).

Lighter impact, but I doubt Atlanta has put much thought into preventing or recovering from hurricane damage.

It's a problem of trees--there are far more densely wooded areas where people live (and more rural areas) than Florida, which is more open areas, so when we get a lot of wind the downed lines tend to be harder to get to.

[TML]

The 12z GFS run has Jose rolling around in the Atlantic before making a direct hit to NYC.  Joe Bastardi is already entertaining a US landfall for Jose but it is too early to tell.

Now a direct NYC hit is very unlikely.

I've been monitoring the Euro forecast for Jose for several days now, and it never expected Jose to turn the same way Sandy did (remember, the Euro forecast said that Sandy would turn inland a week in advance while other models were saying otherwise).

[Hammy]

The 12z GFS run has Jose rolling around in the Atlantic before making a direct hit to NYC.  Joe Bastardi is already entertaining a US landfall for Jose but it is too early to tell.

Now a direct NYC hit is very unlikely.

I've been monitoring the Euro forecast for Jose for several days now, and it never expected Jose to turn the same way Sandy did (remember, the Euro forecast said that Sandy would turn inland a week in advance while other models were saying otherwise).

Sandy track is unlikely, but there's a worrying trend where the track itself is shifting west as Irma's did, and given where it's at an East Coast track (similar to Gloria in 1985) can't really be ruled out.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Maria (currently TD 15) is going to make life even more miserable for the folks trying to recover from Irma in the Leeward Islands.  At least it's only supposed to be a Cat 1 by the time it gets there.

[JA]

'For first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda'