Which map is more plausible?

[TDAS04]

Map A

Republican ticket wins 350-188




Map B

Democratic wins 368-170

[MT Treasurer]

Map B, simply because of Virginia. There is absolutely no way Trump can win the state. CO is a stretch as well.

Map B could at least happen if there is a recession and/or war.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

B is probably what would happen if a Trump/Clinton rematch were held today. We have a president with an approval rating in the thirties. Also, Nevada and Virginia would be heavy lifts for Trump even if he were popular.

[AN63093]

Both are these are probably the realistic ceiling for the GOP/Dems, respectively.  I think the current climate is too polarized for a true landslide, so these are good maps for what I'd expect the "max" for each party to be.

Did you mean to leave ME CD2 R in the second map?

For that reason, maybe the first map is slightly more plausible, because I'm having difficulty seeing the scenario where ME stays R but WI/PA/MI all flip D.

[TDAS04]

Did you mean to leave ME CD2 R in the second map?

Yeah.  I was undecided about that, along with Iowa.

[Xing]

Considering Trump's approval rating, Map B. I highly doubt he'll lose Georgia, but that's more likely than him winning a state like Colorado or Nevada.

[Rookie Yinzer]

B

[twenty42]

B is probably what would happen if a Trump/Clinton rematch were held today. We have a president with an approval rating in the thirties. Also, Nevada and Virginia would be heavy lifts for Trump even if he were popular.

What basis do you have that Hillary would win 368 EV's and flip eight states if the election were held again today?

[Sirius_]

I'd have to say B based on Trump's current approval ratings. GA flipping to the dems that early is unlikely but far more likely than Trump winning MN.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Considering Trump's approval rating, Map B. I highly doubt he'll lose Georgia, but that's more likely than him winning a state like Colorado or Nevada.

[°Leprechaun]

It would be interesting to look at this thread in 3 years from today.
I went with B, but either is possible, if unlikely.
You could flip Iowa on map B, of course.
It has been very much of a swing state, and certainly just as likely to flip as GA.

TX is very much of a long shot, but I am not ready to rule it out entirely until two things
happen, the Senate race in 2018 and whether a Texan is the D nominee for P or VP.
This is because of the number of Hispanics there, and the wild card of new voters who will
turn 18-21. (and how many decide to vote)
Although B is as good a map as any.
A is plausible if the D nominee is terrible.

[UncleSam]

I mean Trump's approval ratings are like the same as when he won 306 EVs against a terrible candidate, people are massively overestimating the impact of approval ratings honestly - Trump has already proven he can turn out his base and when over just enough of the 60% who dislike him to win.

Map A by a mile. No way in hell Trump loses Georgia, much less Ohio or Arizona. Map A requires only a ~3 point net shift + a candidate who is weaker in VA for the Dems, which is much more plausible as of now.

If a recession hits then Map B minus GA flipping is more likely, I just can't see the hyper polarized racial politics of GA flipping the state until the minority population straight outgrows the white population there.

[MT Treasurer]

This idea that Trump can win VA in 2020 (or CO, to a lesser extent) is ridiculous fantasy. Republicans who think this will happen are as delusional as Democrats who thought Obama was going to beat Romney in Indiana in 2012.

[mileslunn]

Map B as long as Trump is president as his approval rating is horrible.  Now if he resigns or gets impeached then I think Map A might be equally plausible especially if his replacement is more popular and with him setting the bar so low that would be relatively easy to do.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

B. Trump will never win Colorado or Virginia.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Map B is probably the more likely map now, but I think that 2020 will be very close.

[libertpaulian]

B, but I'd also give the Dem IA and ME-02.

[GGover]

I'll stick with the consensus and say B.

There's just no way someone who rails against the elites and says "drain the swamp" is going to win Virginia.