Maybe I didn't pay enough attention back there...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

But was was Romney's "47%" comment such a big deal, given it was pretty much a fair assessment of polarization of the electorate?

Edit: yes, looking back I paid very little attention to 2012 as opposed to both 2008 and 2016.

[twenty42]

But was was Romney's "47%" comment such a big deal, given it was pretty much a fair assessment of polarization of the electorate?

Edit: yes, looking back I paid very little attention to 2012 as opposed to both 2008 and 2016.

It wasn't that he was totally wrong with what he said, but it is generally considered faux pas to criticize voters during the election season. Same with Hillary's "deplorables" remark. Candidates are supposed to be courting voters, not ostracizing them.

[Rookie Yinzer]

He was essentially calling Obama voters lazy, welfare queens who live off the government while real Americans pay their way. It was highly problematic, especially when his opponent was a black man. I remember that leaving a bad taste in my mouth and hearing people around me who didn't even really pay attention to the election until the last minute being pissed off that he said that.

[catographer]

I think it was a huge deal too because there was little else in the news, gaffes and faux-pas's were not as common as 2016. Fewer things for the media to make a big deal over.

[AN63093]

It was a "big deal" in the sense that it was probably the biggest gaffe of the election.

But in the grand scheme of things, no, it was not a big deal.  Romney was never really within serious striking distance to win.

Although it was not covered this way throughout the campaigns, 2016 was much more "in play" than 2012 was.  To the casual/uninformed observer, it probably appeared to be the opposite, since Romney was not as disliked by the media and institutions, so one could be fooled into thinking the election was closer than it was.  But to the informed observer, Romney pretty clearly never had a real shot, whereas Trump had a very legitimate shot, no matter how much people disliked him.

Of course, I still thought Clinton would win, but I was only about 60% sure or so.  In '12, I was close to 100% sure Obama would win re-election.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This was the "smoking gun" that Romney hated poor people.

It was the narrative the Obama campaign wanted people to believe; Romney was a rich white man who declared war on women, caused his employees to die of cancer and wanted to blacks back in chains. But most importantly he hated poor people.

And to be fair, Romney gave them a ton of ammo. He was a gaffe machine - some taken out of context, but still no good optics. Examples: "I like being able to fire people," "Corporations are people my friend," "I'm not too concerned about the very poor," "My wife owns two Cadillacs," "These donuts are from the local 7-11 aren't they?" etc. etc.

So this was like THE statement that proved Obama's narrative. Obama won the "he cares about me" exit poll by like what, 80 points?

The Democrats tried the same thing with Trump, except instead of hating poor people (unlike Romney, Trump bragged about his wealth so the "hates poor people" argument would be ineffective) they tried to bring up the war on women. Megyn Kelly gave a preview of it in the first debate, and the Access Hollywood tape was meant to be the "smoking gun."

Trump IMO lucked out on having his opponent's spouse be Bill Clinton. A lot of people felt it was hypocritical to attack Trump on that because of what Bill did.

And yes, I see what you're saying - the 2012 election will seem like a blur because it's sandwiched in between 2008 and 2016.

[NHI]

This was the "smoking gun" that Romney hated poor people.

It was the narrative the Obama campaign wanted people to believe; Romney was a rich white man who declared war on women, caused his employees to die of cancer and wanted to blacks back in chains. But most importantly he hated poor people.

And to be fair, Romney gave them a ton of ammo. He was a gaffe machine - some taken out of context, but still no good optics. Examples: "I like being able to fire people," "Corporations are people my friend," "I'm not too concerned about the very poor," "My wife owns two Cadillacs," "These donuts are from the local 7-11 aren't they?" etc. etc.

So this was like THE statement that proved Obama's narrative. Obama won the "he cares about me" exit poll by like what, 80 points?

The Democrats tried the same thing with Trump, except instead of hating poor people (unlike Romney, Trump bragged about his wealth so the "hates poor people" argument would be ineffective) they tried to bring up the war on women. Megyn Kelly gave a preview of it in the first debate, and the Access Hollywood tape was meant to be the "smoking gun."

Trump IMO lucked out on having his opponent's spouse be Bill Clinton. A lot of people felt it was hypocritical to attack Trump on that because of what Bill did.

And yes, I see what you're saying - the 2012 election will seem like a blur because it's sandwiched in between 2008 and 2016.

[twenty42]

But in the grand scheme of things, no, it was not a big deal.  Romney was never really within serious striking distance to win.

I don't know about this.

I think 2012 was a closer election in real life than it seems looking back on it historically. A lot of people forget the major polling error...Obama won the popular vote by 3.86% but only led the RCP average by 0.7%. That's a 3.16% discrepancy...which makes the 1.1% discrepancy of 2016 look like small potatoes.

I think Obama's 2012 victory is also distorted by the significant EC advantage that Dems enjoyed that year.  Romney would've had to win the popular vote by almost two points to attain 270 EV's. Contrast that with the 2016 election...Trump attained 306 EV's while losing the popular vote by two points, and a 3.86% Democratic PV victory in 2016 would've attained only 278 EV's.

I do agree that Romney's chances on Election Night 2012 were close to zero, only because of said EC advantage for Obama. I think Romney could've edged Obama in the popular vote if he didn't take his foot off the gas pedal after the first debate, but not enough to take Colorado and the EV.