Which states will trend the strongest for either Party?

[Technocracy Timmy]

1. Which state will have the largest Dem trend?
2. Which state will have the largest GOP trend?

Regarding candidates, assume that the candidates for either Party are who you predict they'll be. So if you think the race will ultimately be Trump vs. Warren, then assume that when answering the questions.


In 2016 it was Utah for the Democrats and North Dakota for the Republicans.

[Webnicz]

Im sure we will see Utah trend heavy to the GOP again to the normal 70% GOP levels with ought a strong 3rd party,  though Im unsure of the opinions of trump are in Utah post election, I would assume conservatives there are warming up to him but on the approvals by state map he seems to be around 50%

Strongest D trend would be AZ if the election were held today

in 2020 I believe most D trends will be in the sunbelt, AZ, GA,TX, FL (the democratic candidate obviously won't win all of these) and there will be trends small enough for the Dems to pick up MI & PA again.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My early candidates are Utah and Virginia (or something random like Alaska)

[GlobeSoc]

Utah for GOP
Either Vermont or New Mexico for the Dems

There will be few gigantic swings like the ones seen in many rural areas in 2016, but 3rd party voters coming home will provide the strongest swings of 2020.

[cvparty]

Vermont for Democrats? maybe Utah (depends on 3rd party candidates) or West Virginia for the GOP

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Without the write-ins and third parties, I expect the Democratic nominee to get 66-72% of the vote in Vermont, so that state should trend strongly towards the Dems.


Without McMullin, Utah should trend hard towards Trump, with him winning 63-37 or so.


Without Gary Johnson, New Mexico should go back to D + 12-15%.

[AN63093]

GOP: UT, and it won't even be close.  Second place- ID.  Somehow this has sorta gone "under the radar," but ID actually trended D in '16.  There were a lot of dramatic trends in eastern ID, but I don't think it was due to a long-term trend; it was just a one-off 2016 thing, and I assume it'll move back.

Dems: VA.

Yes, it has trended D 5 times in a row now, and it'll stall out at some point, but I don't think the bottom has fallen out for the GOP in VA yet, not even close.  There are still a fair number of GOP voters in the western part of the state, but those areas are all shrinking.  

Meanwhile, both Alexandria and Arlington's growth has actually increased (they were at 9% and 10% respectively in 2010, but they are both on pace to hit close to 20% at the next census).  Fairfax Cty is still on pace to hit ~10% growth, Loudoun is on pace to hit ~40% growth, Prince William should hit around 20%, and so on.  The growth has calmed down a bit since 2010 in the outer suburbs, but it's still pretty hot, and Alexandria/Arlington's growth rate is actually increasing.  All these people moving in are for the most part, Dems.

So you got all these Dems moving in, well.. where are the Republicans?  Problem is, I don't see where the GOP can squeeze out more votes.  The greatest concentration of Republicans in the state is probably VA Beach- but in '16, Trump was only off Romney's R turnout by about 1k votes in VA Beach.  Even at the highest R turnout levels in '04, Bush got about 5k more votes than Trump in VA Beach.  5k is not gonna be enough to flip the state.


Other than VA, I'm not sure.  Long term, all of AZ, GA, and TX I expect to trend D, but I don't know if it'll even happen in '20, much less be the strongest trends for the Dems.  Rather, I think it's very possible we see a bit of a "course correction" with these states, since they may have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves for one cycle.  Depending on what happens with the national PV, they may all still trend D, but I wouldn't be surprised if they swing R, even if just a bit.  Sort of like NC and CO did this time around.

[Xing]

I'd say the obvious answers are UT for the Republicans, and VT for the Democrats. For other states, we might see a reversal in some of the states that trended the most strongly in 2016, so MA could trend Republican, and states like ND and RI could trend Democratic.

[Kingpoleon]

D: Alaska or South Carolina
R: Minnesota or Utah