FL-Florida Atlantic University: Nelson +2

[MT Treasurer]

42% Bill Nelson (D, inc.)
40% Rick Scott (R)

Link.

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Believable, and I will move FL to tossup once Scott officially gets in.

[BudgieForce]

Ignoring the fact that most Florida pollsters stink(FAU is no exception), this race will be all about the national political climate. Because Republicans are in power and Trump is unpopular, this is Nelson's race to lose, even against Rick Scott.

[GlobeSoc]

lol

[MT Treasurer]

I think this race is going to be a good bellwether for sure. Polls close early in FL and the vote count is very fast there, so this and IN will be our first indicators of what the rest of the night is going to look like.

[Virginiá]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/fl/florida_senate_mack_vs_nelson-1847.html

A lot of polls underestimated him in the weeks before his last election. Given how far we are out right now, I don't see a reason to think Nelson wouldn't still be favored here. As stated previously, the national climate will probably factor into this race heavily.

[TheSaint250]

FAU usually leans R, but still, Scott has won close races before. Granted, both of his wins were in lean-R years.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

[heatcharger]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2006
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2012

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

FAU usually leans R, but still, Scott has won close races before. Granted, both of his wins were in lean-R years.

Sure, just lean R years, this race is Lean D.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

Yes, I'm sure that Tim Canova would do far better in a general election.

You never tried so you'll never know. Scarring politician's and voters into not running a progressive campaign has bren the Democrats downfall and we all know why the Democrats wont move left...it would upset their donors.

[TheSaint250]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

Yes, I'm sure that Tim Canova would do far better in a general election.

You never tried so you'll never know. Scarring politician's and voters into not running a progressive campaign has bren the Democrats downfall and we all know why the Democrats wont move left...it would upset their donors.

Please ask Senators Mourdock and O'Donnell how purity-test primary challenges against establishment politicians succeed.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

Yes, I'm sure that Tim Canova would do far better in a general election.

You never tried so you'll never know. Scarring politician's and voters into not running a progressive campaign has bren the Democrats downfall and we all know why the Democrats wont move left...it would upset their donors.

Please ask Senators Mourdock and O'Donnell how purity-test primary challenges against establishment politicians succeed.

Mourdock lost by talking about rape and O'Donnell lost by saying she wasn't a witch. The false equivalence your trying to push failed.

[Virginiá]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

You don't need the whole Senate caucus to be full of progressives in order for it to champion the same kind of legislation it would if it was 100% "pure." You just need progressives as a large enough faction where it drives most of the debate. To that effect, you don't need to start primarying incumbent Democrats from states where Democrats have a hard time winning statewide races, such as Florida, West Virginia or other red states. Just go after the incumbents from safe(r) states.

It just doesn't make sense to focus so much on vulnerable seats while leaving other safe seats alone. No sense at all.

[TheSaint250]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

Yes, I'm sure that Tim Canova would do far better in a general election.

You never tried so you'll never know. Scarring politician's and voters into not running a progressive campaign has bren the Democrats downfall and we all know why the Democrats wont move left...it would upset their donors.

Please ask Senators Mourdock and O'Donnell how purity-test primary challenges against establishment politicians succeed.

Mourdock lost by talking about rape and O'Donnell lost by saying she wasn't a witch. The false equivalence your trying to push failed.

Even then, the polls predicted a close race. O'Donnell was always going to lose anyway no matter what.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

Yes, I'm sure that Tim Canova would do far better in a general election.

You never tried so you'll never know. Scarring politician's and voters into not running a progressive campaign has bren the Democrats downfall and we all know why the Democrats wont move left...it would upset their donors.

Please ask Senators Mourdock and O'Donnell how purity-test primary challenges against establishment politicians succeed.

Mourdock lost by talking about rape and O'Donnell lost by saying she wasn't a witch. The false equivalence your trying to push failed.

Even then, the polls predicted a close race. O'Donnell was always going to lose anyway no matter what.

Well yes O'Donnell was a nut. Progessives running against the corupt system is only going to make them more successful against republicans. Running the same old campaign style of the 90s is going to elect Rick Scott.

[Coraxion]

Junk.

[krazen1211]

Ignoring the fact that most Florida pollsters stink(FAU is no exception), this race will be all about the national political climate. Because Republicans are in power and Trump is unpopular, this is Nelson's race to lose, even against Rick Scott.

Florida polls were very accurate in the 2016 election. If anything, they are underestimating the GOP.

In the 2014 many polls showed Count Charlie Crist in the lead and then he lost.

[BudgieForce]

Ignoring the fact that most Florida pollsters stink(FAU is no exception), this race will be all about the national political climate. Because Republicans are in power and Trump is unpopular, this is Nelson's race to lose, even against Rick Scott.

Florida polls were very accurate in the 2016 election. If anything, they are underestimating the GOP.

In the 2014 many polls showed Count Charlie Crist in the lead and then he lost.

Florida polls, yes. Florida pollsters, no. And most pollsters had the 2014 Florida governorship race within the MOE, so im not sure what point your trying to make. Out of state pollsters(meaning excluding FAU and UNF polls) were right on the nose in the 2016 race too. The average had Trump winning Florida by the margin of error and guess what, Trump won Florida by a point.

[InheritTheWind]

A primary is needed. Establisment Democrats in Flordia have bern losing winnable elections for decades now.

Yes, I'm sure that Tim Canova would do far better in a general election.

You never tried so you'll never know. Scarring politician's and voters into not running a progressive campaign has bren the Democrats downfall and we all know why the Democrats wont move left...it would upset their donors.

Please ask Senators Mourdock and O'Donnell how purity-test primary challenges against establishment politicians succeed.

Mourdock lost by talking about rape and O'Donnell lost by saying she wasn't a witch. The false equivalence your trying to push failed.

You say that like someone like Tim Canova or Alan Grayson wouldn't say something equally batsh**t insane.

[Sir Mohamed]

Junk poll. Still lean to likely D.

[krazen1211]

Ignoring the fact that most Florida pollsters stink(FAU is no exception), this race will be all about the national political climate. Because Republicans are in power and Trump is unpopular, this is Nelson's race to lose, even against Rick Scott.

Florida polls were very accurate in the 2016 election. If anything, they are underestimating the GOP.

In the 2014 many polls showed Count Charlie Crist in the lead and then he lost.

Florida polls, yes. Florida pollsters, no. And most pollsters had the 2014 Florida governorship race within the MOE, so im not sure what point your trying to make. Out of state pollsters(meaning excluding FAU and UNF polls) were right on the nose in the 2016 race too. The average had Trump winning Florida by the margin of error and guess what, Trump won Florida by a point.

FAU and UNF polls were not bad in 2014 or 2016. They were biased in favor of the Dems yes. Crist +5 stands out. But not so much so.

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[BudgieForce]

Ignoring the fact that most Florida pollsters stink(FAU is no exception), this race will be all about the national political climate. Because Republicans are in power and Trump is unpopular, this is Nelson's race to lose, even against Rick Scott.

Florida polls were very accurate in the 2016 election. If anything, they are underestimating the GOP.

In the 2014 many polls showed Count Charlie Crist in the lead and then he lost.

Florida polls, yes. Florida pollsters, no. And most pollsters had the 2014 Florida governorship race within the MOE, so im not sure what point your trying to make. Out of state pollsters(meaning excluding FAU and UNF polls) were right on the nose in the 2016 race too. The average had Trump winning Florida by the margin of error and guess what, Trump won Florida by a point.

FAU and UNF polls were not bad in 2014 or 2016. They were biased in favor of the Dems yes. Crist +5 stands out. But not so much so.

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They werent bad, but they werent good either. And the polling aggregate was accurate for both races so i'm not sure what your arguing. If your trying to tell me Scott is ahead because FAU polls favorably for democrats, then your bound to be disappointed when Quinnpiac or PPP polls this race and shows Nelson up by 6 or so points.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Scott's hopes may rest on Irma, if he handles it well he should keep it close. If he completely botches it, thats it. Still holding out hope it misses the state

[Bidenworth2020]

these exact numbers, Quinnipiac, same time, except for the 2012 senate election.lol.

https://www.qu.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1672