How would Sherrod Brown perform in these states?
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  How would Sherrod Brown perform in these states?
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Author Topic: How would Sherrod Brown perform in these states?  (Read 1789 times)
Suburban Republican
omelott
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« on: August 28, 2017, 08:38:23 PM »

Sherrod Brown seems to be the dark horse candidate that has everyone talking. He's from the Midwest and has WWC appeal, which makes him more favorable to win contests in the Midwest.

If Sherrod Brown was up against Trump, how would he fare in these contests?

Maine 2
Iowa
Ohio
Nebraska 2
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia



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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2017, 09:21:36 PM »

I think that he would win strongly favored to win IA, OH, and ME-02, albeit probably by somewhat small margins.

Arizona, NE-02, and NC are stretches. I would lean towards him not favored in any of the three, but none of them are remotely out of the realm of possibility.

Brown's odds of winning Georgia are slim to none.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2017, 10:07:26 PM »

I don't see how he can be strongly favored in Iowa and Ohio but not NE-02. It's a big metropolitan area in the Midwest.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2017, 10:19:26 PM »

I don't see how he can be strongly favored in Iowa and Ohio but not NE-02. It's a big metropolitan area in the Midwest.

Obama did notably better in Iowa and Ohio than he did in NE-02 in both 2008 and 2012, and I would assume that Brown would have the similar results to Obama (states relative to each other) rather than assume they would for some reason be significantly different.
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Sirius_
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2017, 10:08:40 AM »

Being from Ohio, I think he would definitely be favored in the midwestern states of OH, IA, and NE-02. He would probably also win ME-02, but I'm not as confident. NC and FL are tough ones that I'd have to leave as toss-ups. While they are southern states, Obama did win both of them, winning FL twice. I'd have to favor Trump in GA and AZ. My map would probably look like this:



Sen. Sherrod Brown/Unkown D: 333
President Donald Trump/V.P. Mike Pence: 190
Toss-Up: 15

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Jeppe
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2017, 11:46:11 AM »

Lean R
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

Tilt R
Florida
Nebraska's 2nd

Toss-up
Iowa
Maine's 2nd
Wisconsin

Tilt D
Pennsylvania

Lean D
Ohio
Michigan
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TheLeftwardTide
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2017, 10:03:43 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2017, 10:49:58 PM by Angry Socdem »

Likely R:
Georgia

Lean R:
Arizona
North Carolina
NE-02

Toss-Up:
Florida
Iowa
ME-02

Lean D:
Ohio

This is assuming that the economy is doing well and Trump's approval ratings are around 40%, so a very conservative estimate for Brown's performance.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2017, 10:01:51 AM »

I think you guys are giving Brown a touch too much credit in Ohio, I can see him winning it, sure, but it would be close on the presidential level, not lean D in anyway.
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varesurgent
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2017, 04:54:54 PM »

Likely R:
GA

Lean R:
NC
IA
NE-02
AZ

Tossup:
ME-02

Learn D:
OH
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2017, 05:51:56 PM »

Likely R:
Georgia

Lean R:
NE-2
Arizona
North Carolina
ME-2
Iowa

Tossup:
Florida
Ohio
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2017, 06:27:32 PM »


Likely D
Maine 2
Ohio
Arizona
North Carolina

Lean D
Nebraska 2
Georgia
Iowa


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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2017, 06:30:51 PM »

Maine 2 - Lean R
Iowa - Lean R
Ohio Tilt/Lean R
Nebraska 2 - Tossup
Arizona -Tossup
North Carolina - Lean R
Georgia - Lean R
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Suburban Republican
omelott
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2017, 11:07:32 PM »

Maine 2 - Lean R
Iowa - Lean R
Ohio Tilt/Lean R
Nebraska 2 - Tossup
Arizona -Tossup
North Carolina - Lean R
Georgia - Lean R

This seems about right.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2017, 11:46:21 AM »

My guesses for Brown-Trump:

Maine 2 - 49-48
Iowa - 49.5-48
Ohio - 51-48
Nebraska 2 - 49-50
Arizona - 50-49
North Carolina - 48-49
Georgia - 47-50
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2017, 12:23:58 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2017, 04:05:53 PM by RecoveringDem »

It is quite clear to me that, as a white male Democrat from a major swing state who can appeal to both progressives and the working class,  Sherrod Brown would win all 50 states in a landslide regardless of his VP pick, the opposing ticket, the state of the economy, or any other national political factors.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2017, 01:07:56 PM »

If he were to run in 2020, that would almost certainly imply that he won his Senate race, and probably by a decent margin, so I'd put Ohio as a Toss-Up at worst for him. I'd say he'd be even money in ME-02 and FL as well, and maybe a slight underdog in IA and NE-02. I think he'd struggle a lot in states like AZ, GA, and NC.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2017, 07:28:38 AM »

The dominant factors will be whether

(1) we still have free elections, and
(2) how badly Donald Trump or Mike Pence is perceived.

I can't see Trump recovering from his early blunders. Nothing about him says that he can do so. Mike Pence has his vision for America, one in which the common man suffers for the economic elites for Pie-in-the-Sky-When-You-Die... which isn't even a majority position among Christians.

Sherrod Brown is practically a 'generic Democrat', and I can see him winning Ohio simply as a Favorite Son. See Gerald Ford in Michigan in 1976. 

I am tempted to believe that Donald Trump will go down as badly as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980... 
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cvparty
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« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2017, 09:56:44 AM »

If Trump's really unpopular, then he could win them all
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politics_king
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2017, 02:17:56 AM »

I think Sherrod Brown is on top of any Democratic nominees VP list. I don't think he wants the Presidency, I do think he's interested in running for Governor as he's a lifelong Ohioan that wants to rebuild his state to greatness. Sherrod Brown is one of the true voice for the people, I still remember when McCain gave the thumbs-down (kudos to McCain by the way) and Sherrod slammed his desk, it was a victory for every working-class American that day. Politics is a theater and I applaud the ones that do fight tooth and nail everyday like him.
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2017, 02:21:39 AM »

Given the realities of the electoral college, a Brown/Sanders ticket may be the Democrats' best shot. And no, it wouldn't matter that it was an all-white male ticket at all. (Nor should it.) Both are interesting, personable people who can reach across divides and appeal to groups the Democrats need to be talking to. Sadly, it's doubtful he'll run.
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politics_king
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« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2017, 02:28:25 AM »

Given the realities of the electoral college, a Brown/Sanders ticket may be the Democrats' best shot. And no, it wouldn't matter that it was an all-white male ticket at all. (Nor should it.) Both are interesting, personable people who can reach across divides and appeal to groups the Democrats need to be talking to. Sadly, it's doubtful he'll run.

I really doubt that. Brown will be a good VP pick no matter the nominee because he can be a good attack-dog. As the main ticket, his cigarette smoking voice and "rugged" look won't appeal to the majority. He's a progressive so he can shore up any ticket that has an "establishment" type.
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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: September 08, 2017, 02:29:38 AM »

Given the realities of the electoral college, a Brown/Sanders ticket may be the Democrats' best shot. And no, it wouldn't matter that it was an all-white male ticket at all. (Nor should it.) Both are interesting, personable people who can reach across divides and appeal to groups the Democrats need to be talking to. Sadly, it's doubtful he'll run.

I really doubt that. Brown will be a good VP pick no matter the nominee because he can be a good attack-dog. As the main ticket, his cigarette smoking voice and "rugged" look won't appeal to the majority. He's a progressive so he can shore up any ticket that has an "establishment" type.

The VP pick doesn't really matter. He needs to be at the top of the ticket. He's unique in that he's a progressive who can also appeal to the white working class, and white men. Plus, he's from the Midwest.
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politics_king
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« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2017, 02:32:54 AM »

Given the realities of the electoral college, a Brown/Sanders ticket may be the Democrats' best shot. And no, it wouldn't matter that it was an all-white male ticket at all. (Nor should it.) Both are interesting, personable people who can reach across divides and appeal to groups the Democrats need to be talking to. Sadly, it's doubtful he'll run.

I really doubt that. Brown will be a good VP pick no matter the nominee because he can be a good attack-dog. As the main ticket, his cigarette smoking voice and "rugged" look won't appeal to the majority. He's a progressive so he can shore up any ticket that has an "establishment" type.

The VP pick doesn't really matter. He needs to be at the top of the ticket. He's unique in that he's a progressive who can also appeal to the white working class, and white men. Plus, he's from the Midwest.

Honestly, since Dick Cheney became VP, and how much of a positive influence that Joe Biden had on the Obama Administration. The VP position has become much more. Pence was picked for his inner-knowledge of Washington, D.C.

I think Brown would be a great VP. If he wants to run, I support him but if he doesn't. He'll be on everyone's VP list. I guarantee it.
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Beet
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« Reply #23 on: September 08, 2017, 02:34:56 AM »
« Edited: September 08, 2017, 02:37:05 AM by Beet »

Given the realities of the electoral college, a Brown/Sanders ticket may be the Democrats' best shot. And no, it wouldn't matter that it was an all-white male ticket at all. (Nor should it.) Both are interesting, personable people who can reach across divides and appeal to groups the Democrats need to be talking to. Sadly, it's doubtful he'll run.

I really doubt that. Brown will be a good VP pick no matter the nominee because he can be a good attack-dog. As the main ticket, his cigarette smoking voice and "rugged" look won't appeal to the majority. He's a progressive so he can shore up any ticket that has an "establishment" type.

The VP pick doesn't really matter. He needs to be at the top of the ticket. He's unique in that he's a progressive who can also appeal to the white working class, and white men. Plus, he's from the Midwest.

Honestly, since Dick Cheney became VP, and how much of a positive influence that Joe Biden had on the Obama Administration. The VP position has become much more. Pence was picked for his inner-knowledge of Washington, D.C.

I think Brown would be a great VP. If he wants to run, I support him but if he doesn't. He'll be on everyone's VP list. I guarantee it.

I mean sure, if he is on the VP list I don't think he'll make a bad VP, but he won't add the power to the ticket that he needs to, particularly if the main nominee is coastal. He'd really only have a significant impact as the nominee. He could really make the Democrats competitive again among working class whites.

EDIT: And especially if the VP is Sanders. I think they could have a unique chemistry as two progressive old white guys, as Clinton/Gore did in '92.
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politics_king
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« Reply #24 on: September 08, 2017, 02:43:18 AM »

Given the realities of the electoral college, a Brown/Sanders ticket may be the Democrats' best shot. And no, it wouldn't matter that it was an all-white male ticket at all. (Nor should it.) Both are interesting, personable people who can reach across divides and appeal to groups the Democrats need to be talking to. Sadly, it's doubtful he'll run.

I really doubt that. Brown will be a good VP pick no matter the nominee because he can be a good attack-dog. As the main ticket, his cigarette smoking voice and "rugged" look won't appeal to the majority. He's a progressive so he can shore up any ticket that has an "establishment" type.

The VP pick doesn't really matter. He needs to be at the top of the ticket. He's unique in that he's a progressive who can also appeal to the white working class, and white men. Plus, he's from the Midwest.

Honestly, since Dick Cheney became VP, and how much of a positive influence that Joe Biden had on the Obama Administration. The VP position has become much more. Pence was picked for his inner-knowledge of Washington, D.C.

I think Brown would be a great VP. If he wants to run, I support him but if he doesn't. He'll be on everyone's VP list. I guarantee it.

I mean sure, if he is on the VP list I don't think he'll make a bad VP, but he won't add the power to the ticket that he needs to, particularly if the main nominee is coastal. He'd really only have a significant impact as the nominee. He could really make the Democrats competitive again among working class whites.

EDIT: And especially if the VP is Sanders. I think they could have a unique chemistry as two progressive old white guys, as Clinton/Gore did in '92.

I don't think the VP needs to be a star, just a person with the credentials to shore-up the ticket. Which is what Brown would do. I don't even think at this point, Sanders would take a VP slot. I think he would've taken the VP slot if Clinton offered it and she would've most likely won. But she went the route of Obama who at the same time could've made Clinton his VP, but he went with a sound-voice his campaign liked in Biden and they turned out to be a fantastic combination. Bernie would probably overshadow Brown as well. It's not the best move, but if it was made, I would vote that ticket.
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