How each map would like if the national margin had the next election's margin
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 10:57:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  How each map would like if the national margin had the next election's margin
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How each map would like if the national margin had the next election's margin  (Read 1066 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,754


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 30, 2017, 03:06:54 AM »
« edited: August 30, 2017, 03:29:30 AM by Old School Republican »

What I mean is how each electoral map would look like if the popular vote margin of one election had the popular vote margin of the next election.

1972: If  McGovern won by 2 points ( For this map I'll be using a universal swing of 25%)



McGovern 319
Nixon 215
Undecided 4

Hawaii is too close to call while Missouri ,New Jersey , New Mexico barely go Dem while West Virginia , and Vermont barely stay GOP



1976:


Ford 456
Carter 82


1980:




Reagan 519
Carter 19

1984:



Reagan 428
Mondale 110


1988:



Dukakis 333
Bush 205
Kansas goes dem extremely narrowly , and Texas barely stays GOP

1992:



Clinton 417
Bush  121
Texas once again barely stays GOP
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,754


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2017, 03:38:30 AM »
« Edited: August 30, 2017, 01:24:19 PM by Old School Republican »

1996-2012


1996:




Clinton 286
Dole 252

Oregon stays Dem by less .1%


2000:


Bush 312
Gore 226


2004:



Kerry 349
Bush 183
Too Close to Call 6


2008:



Obama 311
McCain 227



2012:




Obama 303
Romney 235
Logged
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,444
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2017, 05:20:02 AM »

This is very interesting, curious to see the next ones.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,452
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2017, 09:47:25 AM »

This is very interesting, curious to see the next ones.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,754


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2017, 12:57:52 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2017, 01:46:03 PM by Old School Republican »

its stunning how similar  the 1972 map looks like to a 2000-Present map with just a few states what are different .

I also am stunned at Kansas in 1988, I thought it would be at least 10 more points GOP then Nation as a whole

2012 shows you how well Obama did in swing states(comparatively to national average) compared to 2008, as they have the same maps despite the fact that Obama in this 2008 map wins by 3.9% while in 2012 won by 2.1%.


2000's map with same popular vote margin shows how much polarizing the country got in 2004 as Bush lost Oregon and Minnesota by more than 3 points in 04, while in 2000 if he won by 2.5% he wins Oregon pretty handily and Minnesota by .6%.
Logged
President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,031
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2017, 01:01:58 PM »

its stunning how similar  the 1972 map looks like to a 2000-Present map with just a few states what are different .


You mentioned that before.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,754


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2017, 01:09:27 PM »

its stunning how similar  the 1972 map looks like to a 2000-Present map with just a few states what are different .


You mentioned that before.

i know i just rearranging  that comment so I can put 1996-2012 right after my 1972-1992 one
Logged
President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,031
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2017, 01:30:26 PM »

its stunning how similar  the 1972 map looks like to a 2000-Present map with just a few states what are different .


You mentioned that before.

i know i just rearranging  that comment so I can put 1996-2012 right after my 1972-1992 one
Carry on, then.
Logged
mianfei
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 322
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2018, 12:11:08 AM »
« Edited: January 06, 2018, 12:12:55 AM by mianfei »

1968 if Humphrey lost six percent and it is assumed ninety percent of the Wallace vote (though varying by county) would have gone to Nixon:



1964 (assuming a 25 percentage point swing to Goldwater):



Goldwater would lose by 30 electoral votes despite winning the popular vote!

1960:



Kennedy comes very close to sweeping fifty states - but not a realistic scenario!

1956:



1952:

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.106 seconds with 11 queries.