Political Trends where you disagree with the Atlas Consensus

[libertpaulian]

New Hampshire isn't going to become Safe D.

That's only a consensus among TN Volunteer/MT Treasurer and Heisenberg.  It's not a general Atlas consensus, IMO.

[libertpaulian]

-The next realignment will be a Bernie-esque populist one

-VA, NV, and CO will become Safe D in the 2020s/2030s

-The Rust Belt is gone from the Dems forever

[hopper]

I think that GOP primary voters are too insane to allow the GOP to moderate. Atlas does not.

I think that because of that, Democrats will become a permanent majority and the real battle will be between the different Democratic factions. Atlas does not.

When you lose like 3 straight Presidential Elections like the Dems did from 1980-1988 you will Moderate or Modify for that matter on Policy. The GOP hasn't lost 3 straight Presidential Elections since "The New Deal Era" of FDR/Truman when the GOP lost 5 straight Presidential Elections from 1932-1948.

[hopper]

That the GOP can somehow win in future elections post 2022 on a "whites only strategy" plus only 26-28% of Hispanics/Asians and 6-9% of blacks.

Losing Asians by 50% points isn't gonna kill you unless we are talking about the state of Virginia.

That's true the GOP needs to make more inroads with black voters and Hispanic Voters.

[hopper]

The Democrats will continue to improve in large cities and urban areas, while the GOP improves in rural parts of the country and some WWC areas.   

I think sooner or later the GOP will give up the fight against both climate change and give up on the drug war.

The Southern Atlantic Coast and the Southwestern states (including Texas) will eventually be the Dem's new bases, along with the Northeast and Pacific Coast, except South Carolina and Utah.   Republicans will get pretty much everything else, except maybe Minnesota and Illinois.

I think the Dems are maxed out in the large cities and especially urban areas. I think the GOP could be soon maxed out in rural parts of the country as well. The real battle will be in the inner-ring suburbs.

I think most of the GOP is mostly against the war on drugs and now sees it as a waste of money.

[hopper]

Immigration isn't a "new" issue. Besides its more likely the GOP moderates on issues like LGBT rights and birth control than immigration at this point.

Again, We have had the same immigration policy for 50 years with "Taft-Hartley". What's there to moderate on on that issue unless you are talking about an immigration reform package passing through Congress?

Birth Control-Its the Democrats that are fighting about abortion currently not the Republicans.

LGBT-Can you be more be more specific?

[hopper]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.

I agree. I'd say the late 2030s to sometime in the 2040s.

This is what I just don't get about 2020s realignment naysayers. Aside from the fact that the GOP's base of older whites will be significantly eroded by 'natural causes' in the mid-2020s, the arguments put forth by TD are very detailed and very plausible. I have some issues with some of the WWC theories, but still. I've never seen anyone put forth any sort of decent argument for why Republicans would somehow dominate for another generation or more. Like it literally doesn't add up. Where do the voters come from? Republicans magically win Democratic-leaning Millennials as they age? (a trend which is largely proven a myth). One consistent aspect of political parties seems to be that eventually a dominant party falls out of step, and refuses to adapt until they are pushed out of power, at which point it takes years to begin regaining influence among the growing parts of the electorate, as they have to change their appeal - sometimes significantly.

As it stands now, the Republican Party is like a poor, unskilled and lazy citizen who won a decent lottery in the 80s and has been almost completely living off of those funds ever since. Eventually you run out of voters money.

* ftr I'm not bitching at you, just ranting

Well 80's and first half of the 90's but I get the gist of your point.

[hopper]

-We won't have a "realigning election" in the 2020s, and those are mostly myths anyway.
-The Democrats aren't going to magically become populist and libertarian-ish at the same time
-The Republicans will eventually moderate, but only on the "new cultural issues" like immigration, not the traditional ones
-Trumpism will die once Trump leaves office
-North Carolina will stay a Lean R state for the foreseeable future
-Improvements with Hispanics will stabalize Texas and Florida for the GOP
-Georgia, however, is a solid long-term Democratic prospect.  I think they also become competitive in places like Montana and Alaska (and maybe Arizona with an East-West divide in the Hispanic vote), while most of the Midwest moves to the GOP.
-The Democrats will eventually abolish the EC during a trifecta in the 2040s or so, once it becomes common that they keep winning the popular vote with ridiculous margins in California and New York, but rarely can win the EC.

North Carolina will stay a Lean R state for the forseeable future-Probably a swing state.

Georgia is a long-term Democratic prospect-It will probably a Dem State in the future.

Improvements with Hispanics will stabilize Texas and Florida for the GOP- Maybe, Maybe not, who knows?

The Democrats will abolish the EC in the 2040's-50/50 chance that that happens.

[Tekken_Guy]

1. Texas is definitely a feasible win for Democrats in 2020.

2. Generation Z will stay on the liberal side.

3. The Rust Belt isn't the key back to the White House for Democrats. They should focus their efforts on the Sun Belt.

[PoliticalShelter]

Immigration isn't a "new" issue. Besides its more likely the GOP moderates on issues like LGBT rights and birth control than immigration at this point.

Again, We have had the same immigration policy for 50 years with "Taft-Hartley". What's there to moderate on on that issue unless you are talking about an immigration reform package passing through Congress?

Birth Control-Its the Democrats that are fighting about abortion currently not the Republicans.

LGBT-Can you be more be more specific?

Taft-Hartley is the trade union law and has nothing to do with immigration.

And by LGBT I mean I can see the republicans abandoning its support for things like bathroom laws and its opposition to transgenders serving in the military.

[PoliticalShelter]

The main thing I disagree with atlas is that Virginia is now somehow completely safe D and unwinneable for the republicans.

[hopper]

Immigration isn't a "new" issue. Besides its more likely the GOP moderates on issues like LGBT rights and birth control than immigration at this point.

Again, We have had the same immigration policy for 50 years with "Taft-Hartley". What's there to moderate on on that issue unless you are talking about an immigration reform package passing through Congress?

Birth Control-Its the Democrats that are fighting about abortion currently not the Republicans.

LGBT-Can you be more be more specific?

Taft-Hartley is the trade union law and has nothing to do with immigration.

And by LGBT I mean I can see the republicans abandoning its support for things like bathroom laws and its opposition to transgenders serving in the military.

Our immigration laws still have been the same since 1965 with "The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965".

[dw93]

1. The Future electoral success for the Democrats is in the Sunbelt: There's no way in hell I see the Democratic party in its current form or in the near future winning states like Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana, and I think White Boomer and early Gen X (those born from the mid 60s through the early 70s) retires will keep Florida and Arizona at least competitive for the GOP. California and New Mexico will remain the only Democratic strongholds of that region until a bigger realignment happens in the distant future. Texas and Georgia at best will become swing states and that's only if Black and Latino voters turn out and that turnout meets or exceeds white turnout in those states.

2. Working Class Whites are gone for the Democrats and upscale suburban whites are their future: If the Democrats move to the left economically and the Republicans moderate socially, people will begin voting their "pocketbooks" again and a lot of those working class whites who currently vote Republican on cultural issues will  vote Democratic on economic issues. The reverse is also true. Those upscale suburbanites and Silicon Valley, limousine liberal types who vote Democratic due to Social Liberalism will likely vote their economic interests and vote for a socially moderate, but none the less pro business and economically conservative Republican party. This also debunks the notion that college educated whites will be overwhelmingly Democratic going forward as well.

3. Minorities will always be a strong Democratic voting block going forward: Yes Demographic changes are happening (abet not as fast as some think) and they are favorable to the Democrats as of now. With that said, the Republicans will be forced to adapt to these Demographic changes and a generation that didn't live through the Southern Strategy or Trumpism (or don't have any memories of them anyway) will come of age to vote and will be more willing to vote for the GOP than racial minorities of the past were. In short, if the Democratic party can go from being the party of slavery and segregation to the party of the New Deal and the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts of the 1960s, then the GOP can certainly go from being the party of the Southern Strategy and Trumpism to a reformed party that can win minority voters.

[hopper]

1. Gun control will become a consensus. In an increasingly urban country, more people will support it.

2. The electoral college will not exist in 15 years.

3. There will be more than 435 US. reps in 15 years.

4. Arizona is more winnable in 2020 than Wisconsin.

In an increasingly urban country-What? I do understand that some urban areas or counties are growing like Atlanta(more on that later), San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Salt Lake City. Some urban areas are losing people like LA, Chicago, Cleveland, St. Louis,  and Detroit. I think the inner ring suburbs are growing just as fast as some select urban areas like the Atlanta Suburbs is probably growing at a but faster pace than the city of Atlanta itself.

[Alabama_Indy10]

1. Gun control will become a consensus. In an increasingly urban country, more people will support it.

2. The electoral college will not exist in 15 years.

3. There will be more than 435 US. reps in 15 years.

4. Arizona is more winnable in 2020 than Wisconsin.

Smoking that good good I see

[Orser67]

I think it's much more likely that one party will experience a sustained period of dominance than most people on Atlas do. I do expect the Democrats to generally be the more powerful party (this part isn't exactly against Atlas consensus), but I wouldn't completely rule out a period of Republican dominance, either. Historically, it's the norm rather than the exception for one party to generally be more powerful than the other.

[Del Tachi]

Disagree with:

-NC will settle to the left of GA (In a few election cycles, Atlanta will basically be to Georgia what Chicago is to Illinois)
-Florida trending Dem
-Arizona becoming a swing state anytime soon
-Dems becoming more economically progressive

[PoliticalShelter]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/gillibrand-and-booker-to-co-sponsor-medicare-for-all-bill

Too late, it's already happened.

[Gass3268]

-Generation Z will be conservative (relative to millenials? Maybe, but not conservative as a whole)

Why would the most diverse generation in history, having their political awakening during the Age of Trump, be more conservative?

Generation Z will be just as liberal as millennials.

[TheSaint250]

-Generation Z will be conservative (relative to millenials? Maybe, but not conservative as a whole)

Why would the most diverse generation in history, having their political awakening during the Age of Trump, be more conservative?

Generation Z will be just as liberal as millennials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2017/08/11/why-democrats-should-be-losing-sleep-over-generation-z/

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/07/13/prof-gen-z-more-conservative-millennials/

http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/

https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/eric-metaxas/next-generation-americans-gen-z-may-be-most-conservative-wwii

There are many more out there.

Diversity doesn't mean "not conservative."  The NY Post one (I think it was that one) even said that the generation will be more socially tolerant than others, even as it is conservative.

[PoliticalShelter]

Gen Z will not be a conservative (of the current Reaganite conservatism at least) generation as the factors that have pushed millienals torward liberalism are still present; unaffordable housing + rent and expensive college tuition fees still exist as far as I'm aware.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

-Generation Z will be conservative (relative to millenials? Maybe, but not conservative as a whole)

Why would the most diverse generation in history, having their political awakening during the Age of Trump, be more conservative?

Generation Z will be just as liberal as millennials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2017/08/11/why-democrats-should-be-losing-sleep-over-generation-z/

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/07/13/prof-gen-z-more-conservative-millennials/

http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/

https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/eric-metaxas/next-generation-americans-gen-z-may-be-most-conservative-wwii

There are many more out there.

Diversity doesn't mean "not conservative."  The NY Post one (I think it was that one) even said that the generation will be more socially tolerant than others, even as it is conservative.

Your sources are terrible.
They are
1. A marketing company in a foreign country with a study I cannot find.

2. The opinion of a professor.

3. The opinions of the same professor and an interview with a random teenager.

4. The same study, and a poll of teenagers.

Teenagers have highly voalitile political opinions. Most people tend to have lifelong voting patterns based on what party is more popular when they enter adulthood. Trump isn't going to help with that.
From that, I'd guess people born from
1996-1997: Lean R
1998-2005: Solid D
2006-2011: Lean D
2012-2019: Lean R. The younger half of the generation will be part of any republican majorities

[TheSaint250]

I was just citing the articles and that this isn't a ridiculous, out-there idea.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

-Generation Z will be conservative (relative to millenials? Maybe, but not conservative as a whole)

Why would the most diverse generation in history, having their political awakening during the Age of Trump, be more conservative?

Generation Z will be just as liberal as millennials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2017/08/11/why-democrats-should-be-losing-sleep-over-generation-z/

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/07/13/prof-gen-z-more-conservative-millennials/

http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/

https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/eric-metaxas/next-generation-americans-gen-z-may-be-most-conservative-wwii

There are many more out there.

Diversity doesn't mean "not conservative."  The NY Post one (I think it was that one) even said that the generation will be more socially tolerant than others, even as it is conservative.

Your sources are terrible.
They are
1. A marketing company in a foreign country with a study I cannot find.

2. The opinion of a professor.

3. The opinions of the same professor and an interview with a random teenager.

4. The same study, and a poll of teenagers.

Teenagers have highly voalitile political opinions. Most people tend to have lifelong voting patterns based on what party is more popular when they enter adulthood. Trump isn't going to help with that.
From that, I'd guess people born from
1996-1997: Lean R
1998-2005: Solid D
2006-2011: Lean D
2012-2019: Lean R. The younger half of the generation will be part of any republican majorities

I had thought that there was a "less-liberal" cohort in the late millennial and early-Gen Z generation, roughly corresponding to birth years between 1993 and 2000, but the recent demonstrations on college campuses question that (though, it could be a vocal minority situation).  There is the evidence of Romney winning 18-20 year olds as a whole in 2012 and youngs swinging to Trump (probably the worst fit for them of the GOP primary contenders) in 2016.  I don't really buy the notion that people don't get more conservative as they age, either.  Let's wait and see.

Also, where we draw the line between millennials and Gen Z is important to this discussion.  I've heard anything from 1994 to 2001, so that's not even really all that clear.

[AN63093]

Are you saying MT isn't trending D at all, or just not trending D for those reasons?

MT did swing and trend R in '16, but I think what happens in 10, 20 years is a fair question.