What is Bernie's worst swing state?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

What's the deal with Vermont liberals and guns?

[Lord Admirale]

New Jersey

[politics_king]

I don't think Bernie should run. He should find the next torch-bearer and endorse that person.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

so which is it, does he do better or worse in rural America? two sides have opposite answers it appears

Rural areas in the South are not the same as rural areas in the Midwest or in the Mountain West (demographically or politically). Sanders does well in the rural Midwest and Mountain West but not the South.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

What's the deal with Vermont liberals and guns?

Vermont is a small, rural state with very lax gun control laws. as such, it's hard to get elected there as a hardcore anti-gun crusader.

[Beet]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

[White Trash]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

[Bidenworth2020]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

[varesurgent]

Swings states:
AZ, NC, FL, NV

Competitive/quasi-swing states:
GA, VA

[Jeppe]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

Hillary won Milwaukee county, and I doubt she did it through overwhelming strength with white voters.

[Bidenworth2020]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

   

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

Hillary won Milwaukee county, and I doubt she did it through overwhelming strength with white voters.

surprisingly,it seems as though it may have been. According to the exit polls i am looking at, she won the white vote by 15 points, while Bernie won the black vote by 2

[Jeppe]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

   

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

Hillary won Milwaukee county, and I doubt she did it through overwhelming strength with white voters.

surprisingly,it seems as though it may have been. According to the exit polls i am looking at, she won the white vote by 15 points, while Bernie won the black vote by 2

If she won the white vote, wouldn't she have sweeped the rest of Wisconsin, where there a bunch of counties with a 90%+ white population? I doubt they released exit polls for a single county in a primary. Milwaukee county is the only county in Wisconsin with a sizable black population, and that's also the only one that Hillary won.

[Bidenworth2020]

yes, they do actually, cant relaese my sources tho sry!

[YE]

The exit polls are likely wrong. 

[White Trash]

yes, they do actually, cant relaese my sources tho sry!

Why can't you release your sources?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Florida

[PoliticalShelter]

Florida

Yep, Florida is basically a state filled with suburbs and retirees, two groups Bernie doesn't perform well with.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

   

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

Hillary won Milwaukee county, and I doubt she did it through overwhelming strength with white voters.

surprisingly,it seems as though it may have been. According to the exit polls i am looking at, she won the white vote by 15 points, while Bernie won the black vote by 2

Sorry no. There is no way possible that Bernie won the black vote in Milwaukee County. Hillary had the overwhelming (4 to 1) support of older black voters, the group that is most likely to vote. He may have won black voters aged 18-29 but Hillary would have stifled that with ardent support of those over the age of 40. That result would go against the trend of EVERY city, county, and state in the 2016 primaries.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Florida, and there's almost no doubt in my mind about it. He probably would've done slightly better than Clinton in the panhandle, since he would've been able to pick off more populist, "ancestral" Democrats with his economic-centered message and his moderate position on guns. It's where his strength was the strongest in the primary. However, he would do much worse in Southeast Florida - a lot of those affluent retirees and Cubans who would pull the lever for Clinton wouldn't do it for Sanders, and for this reason Sanders's margin in Florida would've probably been worse than Clinton's.

I don't see him doing too badly in North Carolina. It was by far his best former-CSA state primary, the only one where he was able to crack 40%, or even 35% iirc, and he didn't really contest the state at all. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think black turnout would've depressed significantly under Sanders. He has a 73% favorability rating among blacks nationwide, and from anecdotal, personal experience, most black people were fine with voting for Sanders if he (miraculously) won (I'm sure some of you Clintonite hacks will dispute this), and Maryland (where I live) is really where the black belt starts. Unlike other former-CSA states such as Arkansas, Sanders won the white vote in North Carolina by a convincing margin (52-43), and so he most likely would also be able to drive up turnout among white Democrats and such. Then there's also the populist factor that would lower the margin in the rural areas (as mentioned for Florida's panhandle). Keep in mind that I don't think Sanders would've won NC, I don't even know if he would've beat Clinton's margin, I just think that NC would by no means be a weak swing state for him like Florida.

yes, they do actually, cant relaese my sources tho sry!

Gonna call BS on this entire theory of yours. If you're going to go against the grind, have hard evidence to prove your point, god dammit.

[Bidenworth2020]

yes, they do actually, cant relaese my sources tho sry!

Why can't you release your sources?

I get them from Maryland U to look at

[publicunofficial]

Florida or Arizona

I think his predicted weakness in Virginia/North Carolina is overrated.

[Coraxion]

Florida, and there's almost no doubt in my mind about it. He probably would've done slightly better than Clinton in the panhandle, since he would've been able to pick off more populist, "ancestral" Democrats with his economic-centered message and his moderate position on guns. It's where his strength was the strongest in the primary. However, he would do much worse in Southeast Florida - a lot of those affluent retirees and Cubans who would pull the lever for Clinton wouldn't do it for Sanders, and for this reason Sanders's margin in Florida would've probably been worse than Clinton's.

I don't see him doing too badly in North Carolina. It was by far his best former-CSA state primary, the only one where he was able to crack 40%, or even 35% iirc, and he didn't really contest the state at all. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think black turnout would've depressed significantly under Sanders. He has a 73% favorability rating among blacks nationwide, and from anecdotal, personal experience, most black people were fine with voting for Sanders if he (miraculously) won (I'm sure some of you Clintonite hacks will dispute this), and Maryland (where I live) is really where the black belt starts. Unlike other former-CSA states such as Arkansas, Sanders won the white vote in North Carolina by a convincing margin (52-43), and so he most likely would also be able to drive up turnout among white Democrats and such. Then there's also the populist factor that would lower the margin in the rural areas (as mentioned for Florida's panhandle). Keep in mind that I don't think Sanders would've won NC, I don't even know if he would've beat Clinton's margin, I just think that NC would by no means be a weak swing state for him like Florida.

1. This was a poll of what black people thought of him in April 2017, not during the campaign.
2. Why is being a Clinton hack such a horrible thing, but being a Bernie hack isn't?

[publicunofficial]

2. Why is being a Clinton hack such a horrible thing, but being a Bernie hack isn't?

It's much funner to be a hack for the most popular politician in the country than for a woman with a lower favorability rating than Sarah Palin.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

I think we've decided Florida would be worse swing state, but I also see him doing poorly in Nevada. I don't think the Hispanic population would be as likely to vote for him as they did for Hillary, and with a far left candidate like Sanders most moderates in Nevada who voted for Hillary would likely swing to Trump or a third party candidate. I might be going a little far with this one, but I can see Delaware being a potentially competitive state. He lost the primary by a huge margin and Delaware tends to favor moderate Democrats, and would be really turned off by Sanders.

[Jeppe]

I think we've decided Florida would be worse swing state, but I also see him doing poorly in Nevada. I don't think the Hispanic population would be as likely to vote for him as they did for Hillary, and with a far left candidate like Sanders most moderates in Nevada who voted for Hillary would likely swing to Trump or a third party candidate. I might be going a little far with this one, but I can see Delaware being a potentially competitive state. He lost the primary by a huge margin and Delaware tends to favor moderate Democrats, and would be really turned off by Sanders.

Delaware has a sizable black population and turnout amongst them would probably fall even more with Bernie instead of Hillary on the ticket. That's also why I have a hard time buying the argument that Bernie would've done a lot better in the Rust Belt. Does Bernie really make up enough votes in the white working class counties to offset turnout issues in places like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee?

Bernie had a really tough time connecting to African-American voters because he kept connecting racial inequality to economic inequality, and I can't imagine him changing his rhetoric in a general election for black voters.