2020 battleground map?

[super6646]

Now this is as of today (this map will likely chance over time), and also assumes third parties get less than 3% of PV).

http://www.270towin.com/maps/4AY3P


I did have Arizona has leaning republican before, but the pardon of that sheriff (whatever the heck his name is) makes me less sure about the state. In terms of which column the battlegrounds go into:

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine (at large).

Leaning Democrat: New Mexico, Virginia

Leaning Republican: Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think this is somewhat realistic.

[AN63093]

Now this is as of today (this map will likely chance over time), and also assumes third parties get less than 3% of PV).

http://www.270towin.com/maps/4AY3P


I did have Arizona has leaning republican before, but the pardon of that sheriff (whatever the heck his name is) makes me less sure about the state. In terms of which column the battlegrounds go into:

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine (at large).

Too many toss-ups.  You're conflating "toss-ups" with "battleground" states.  A true toss-up is a state too close to call.  It's like a coin-flip; either side has a roughly equal chance to win it.

Without any state polling, we don't know yet what the toss-ups will be for sure, except that FL will probably be one.  Maybe PA too.  Other than that, who knows.

[Panhandle Progressive]

If we're putting IA and OH as Lean R then CO should be Lean D.

This.

[TheSaint250]

Assuming Trump somehow stays in office:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/xVxvv

And this is somewhat generous.

[super6646]

If we're putting IA and OH as Lean R then CO should be Lean D.

I was thinking of putting Colorado into the leaning democrat fold, but we have no indicator right now how he will do in the Dever suburbs (which decide the state). Doing much worst than Romney did, I wonder if that trend will continue, or if he will get those voters back. It is likely that a couple of these states will chance positions at some point, but this were I feel the map is right now.

[super6646]

Now this is as of today (this map will likely chance over time), and also assumes third parties get less than 3% of PV).

http://www.270towin.com/maps/4AY3P


I did have Arizona has leaning republican before, but the pardon of that sheriff (whatever the heck his name is) makes me less sure about the state. In terms of which column the battlegrounds go into:

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine (at large).

Too many toss-ups.  You're conflating "toss-ups" with "battleground" states.  A true toss-up is a state too close to call.  It's like a coin-flip; either side has a roughly equal chance to win it.

Without any state polling, we don't know yet what the toss-ups will be for sure, except that FL will probably be one.  Maybe PA too.  Other than that, who knows.

Thats why I have so many toss-ups in my current map. Its unlikely it will look like this when 2020 comes around, but it is nice to hypothesis were the race will be in 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrat: 211
Republican: 156
Battleground: 171

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Democrat: 211
Republican: 156
Battleground: 171

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

I think Michigan will flip back before Wisconsin. Literally all the Democrats have to do at minimum is increase turnout in Wayne County.

[Xing]

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Maine CD1 is not lean-Dem, it's solid D.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

[Lord Admirale]

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Probably this, although Iowa, Ohio, and ME-02 could be in play with Biden or Brown.

[TheSaint250]

It really depends on the nominee tbh if Bullock is the nominee or vp then Montana would be a toss up

Nebraska would most likely be safe statewide.  Even if the Democratic nominee wins the 2nd, it wouldn't do much statewide, as happened with Obama in 2008.

[Strudelcutie4427]

[super6646]

Democrat: 211
Republican: 156
Battleground: 171

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

Indiana and Missouri are almost certainly going to be safe though.

[super6646]

Democrat: 211
Republican: 156
Battleground: 171

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

Indiana and Missouri are almost certainly going to be safe though. Georgia on the other hand could certainly be considered a GOP leaning battleground.

[Suburban Republican]

This map seems fair.

Democrat: 210
Republican: 205
Tossup: 123
Battleground (tossup states + lean D/R states): 225

In a Trump vs Generic Democrat scenario, the Generic Democratic *roughly* wins all the tossups.

In a Pence vs Generic Democrat scenario, Pence *roughly* wins all the tossups.

[Orser67]

I divided states into three groups, non-battleground, battleground with a lean towards one party, and tossup.

This is my guess at a 50/50 election:

This is my prediction given Trump's approval ratings:

[TrumpBritt24]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xxg0d

[TrumpBritt24]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xxg0d

You actually think Maine at large and Virginia could go GOP?

Dems nominate a Clinton Democrat? Definitely.

Maine isn't solid red for me yet. Depends on Trump approval ratings in 2020.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xxg0d

You actually think Maine at large and Virginia could go GOP?

Dems nominate a Clinton Democrat? Definitely.

Maine isn't solid red for me yet. Depends on Trump approval ratings in 2020.

wut??

Do you know anything about Virginia? Virginia is tailor-made for "Clinton Democrats" -- it was one of the few states where she increased on Obama's vote share. Its senators are much closer to Clinton-style politics than to the Berniecrats.

[Heisenberg]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xxg0d

You actually think Maine at large and Virginia could go GOP?

Dems nominate a Clinton Democrat? Definitely.

Maine isn't solid red for me yet. Depends on Trump approval ratings in 2020.

wut??

Do you know anything about Virginia? Virginia is tailor-made for "Clinton Democrats" -- it was one of the few states where she increased on Obama's vote share. Its senators are much closer to Clinton-style politics than to the Berniecrats.

Completely agree on Virginia. That state (especially NOVA) is very pro-government, pro-bureaucrat, and pro-establishment. It is not AT ALL a "Drain the Swamp" kind of place.