2020 battleground map?

[super6646]

Now this is as of today (this map will likely chance over time), and also assumes third parties get less than 3% of PV).

http://www.270towin.com/maps/4AY3P


I did have Arizona has leaning republican before, but the pardon of that sheriff (whatever the heck his name is) makes me less sure about the state. In terms of which column the battlegrounds go into:

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine (at large).

Leaning Democrat: New Mexico, Virginia

Leaning Republican: Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia.

[super6646]

If we're putting IA and OH as Lean R then CO should be Lean D.

I was thinking of putting Colorado into the leaning democrat fold, but we have no indicator right now how he will do in the Dever suburbs (which decide the state). Doing much worst than Romney did, I wonder if that trend will continue, or if he will get those voters back. It is likely that a couple of these states will chance positions at some point, but this were I feel the map is right now.

[super6646]

Now this is as of today (this map will likely chance over time), and also assumes third parties get less than 3% of PV).

http://www.270towin.com/maps/4AY3P


I did have Arizona has leaning republican before, but the pardon of that sheriff (whatever the heck his name is) makes me less sure about the state. In terms of which column the battlegrounds go into:

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine (at large).

Too many toss-ups.  You're conflating "toss-ups" with "battleground" states.  A true toss-up is a state too close to call.  It's like a coin-flip; either side has a roughly equal chance to win it.

Without any state polling, we don't know yet what the toss-ups will be for sure, except that FL will probably be one.  Maybe PA too.  Other than that, who knows.

Thats why I have so many toss-ups in my current map. Its unlikely it will look like this when 2020 comes around, but it is nice to hypothesis were the race will be in 2020.

[super6646]

Democrat: 211
Republican: 156
Battleground: 171

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

Indiana and Missouri are almost certainly going to be safe though.

[super6646]

Democrat: 211
Republican: 156
Battleground: 171

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

Indiana and Missouri are almost certainly going to be safe though. Georgia on the other hand could certainly be considered a GOP leaning battleground.