Randy Bryce (@ironstache) internal shows Paul Ryan in big trouble

[Skye]

I don't buy it. Ryan is an entrenched incumbent, even without accounting for the fact that he is the Speaker. Though he may get a scare. Didn't his 2012 opponent get like 43% of the vote?

[Figueira]

someone reasonable like Elise Stefanik

Contradiction

Anyway, this poll doesn't mean much, but I don't think it's totally impossible for Ryan to lose.

[TheSaint250]

Who can resist the mustache of Randy Bryce? That is John Gregg-level (almost)

Endorsed.

I couldn't resist

(Just kidding)

[KingSweden]

Who can resist the mustache of Randy Bryce? That is John Gregg-level (almost)

Indiana resisted Gregg twice.

And every day they reap the whirlwind of denying that glorious mustache

[VPH]

Remember when Paul Ryan was supposed to face a tough primary in 2016? Dude is clearly a formidable campaigner and I don't think it's this close (although I wish it was).

[Dr. MB]

Lean R but there's some chance he could be defeated. I sure hope so. But if there's a chance Ryan could be defeated the GOP would pour a ton of money into the race. It could be one of the most costly of 2018.

[Xing]

I'll believe it when I see it. Safe R.

[publicunofficial]

Geez, couldn't they have found a respectable nurse or a teacher to run in this district? Not somebody with the Twitter handle ironstache..

[Adam Griffin]

I don't understand why so many people are throwing their money at this race and believing it is winnable...?

What strategist thought running some blue-collar ironworker in a district largely comprised of well-off conservative suburbanite white-collared types was a winning formula?

Ryan is a perfect fit for his district. He always overperforms the top of the ticket, and generally by a good amount. He won by 35 points in 2016. He won by more than 25 points in 2014 against the same guy who came "close" (11 points) to beating him in 2012.

Running Misty Snow in Martha Roby's district would be more competitive, ffs.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ This is really one of the bigger problems in the post-Sanders era: any candidate who even slightly aligns with Sanders' message or personality basically gets a ton of internet buzz. Outside of some larger-than-usual fundraising for candidates who otherwise wouldn't get a second look because of obvious district composition and candidate quality, it amounts to absolutely nothing tangible in terms of making a district winnable. This is compounded by the fact that it's Ryan's district and so, of course, every cycle we get to hear about how we're going to beat Ryan, McConnell etc.

Ever notice how almost all of these no-name-but-made-great-by-the-grace-of-Sanders candidates find themselves in districts that can't ever be won in the first place? At least it makes for an easy out for explaining the failure of the "netroots" strategy.  

[Zioneer]

^^^ This is really one of the bigger problems in the post-Sanders era: any candidate who even slightly aligns with Sanders' message or personality basically gets a ton of internet buzz. Outside of some larger-than-usual fundraising for candidates who otherwise wouldn't get a second look because of obvious district composition and candidate quality, it amounts to absolutely nothing tangible in terms of making a district winnable. This is compounded by the fact that it's Ryan's district and so, of course, every cycle we get to hear about how we're going to beat Ryan, McConnell etc.

Ever notice how almost all of these no-name-but-made-great-by-the-grace-of-Sanders candidates find themselves in districts that can't ever be won in the first place? At least it makes for an easy out for explaining the failure of the "netroots" strategy.  

To be fair, in Misty Snow's case, it's not like she'd be competitive in any of Utah's Congressional districts, or in any state house/senate race outside of Salt Lake City. So if she wanted to actually win anything, she'd have to go for those.

But otherwise, I agree that Berniecratic candidate seem to find themselves in a lot of super-Republican districts.

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why so many people are throwing their money at this race and believing it is winnable...?

What strategist thought running some blue-collar ironworker in a district largely comprised of well-off conservative suburbanite white-collared types was a winning formula?

Ryan is a perfect fit for his district. He always overperforms the top of the ticket, and generally by a good amount. He won by 35 points in 2016. He won by more than 25 points in 2014 against the same guy who came "close" (11 points) to beating him in 2012.

Running Misty Snow in Martha Roby's district would be more competitive, ffs.

Randy Bryce is a great fit for the ends of the district (Janesville, Kenosha and Racine), but like you said, there is too much Milwaukee suburbs in the middle. A fair CD-01 would would be great for someone like Bryce.

[publicunofficial]

^^^ This is really one of the bigger problems in the post-Sanders era: any candidate who even slightly aligns with Sanders' message or personality basically gets a ton of internet buzz. Outside of some larger-than-usual fundraising for candidates who otherwise wouldn't get a second look because of obvious district composition and candidate quality, it amounts to absolutely nothing tangible in terms of making a district winnable. This is compounded by the fact that it's Ryan's district and so, of course, every cycle we get to hear about how we're going to beat Ryan, McConnell etc.

Ever notice how almost all of these no-name-but-made-great-by-the-grace-of-Sanders candidates find themselves in districts that can't ever be won in the first place? At least it makes for an easy out for explaining the failure of the "netroots" strategy.  

I agree, what we need here is a much stronger Jon Ossoff type that has no distinguishing features whatsoever.

[Badger]

There's no link. Who did this poll?

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ This is really one of the bigger problems in the post-Sanders era: any candidate who even slightly aligns with Sanders' message or personality basically gets a ton of internet buzz. Outside of some larger-than-usual fundraising for candidates who otherwise wouldn't get a second look because of obvious district composition and candidate quality, it amounts to absolutely nothing tangible in terms of making a district winnable. This is compounded by the fact that it's Ryan's district and so, of course, every cycle we get to hear about how we're going to beat Ryan, McConnell etc.

Ever notice how almost all of these no-name-but-made-great-by-the-grace-of-Sanders candidates find themselves in districts that can't ever be won in the first place? At least it makes for an easy out for explaining the failure of the "netroots" strategy.  

I agree, what we need here is a much stronger Jon Ossoff type that has no distinguishing features whatsoever.

Or maybe what we need here is to stop deluding ourselves into thinking we can win districts that can't be won and/or stop pouring gobs of grassroots money into races where it won't do any good, just because we saw some clickbait in our news feeds.

Which ends up being the bigger waste: pouring $50 million into a district where winning was actually possible, or pouring $5 million into a district where winning is never, ever going to be a possibility - especially with a candidate that doesn't fit the district at all? Jon Ossoff would be a better candidate in WI-1 than Bryce: why do you think Mr Generic Culinary Arts Major came closer to beating Ryan than anybody in recent memory? His blue-collar flare for dishes?

At least there was major demographic movement and concrete election results to suggest GA-6 was shifting and winnable (both of which were and are true). What's the justification/case for that change in WI-01? Oh, right: #Ironstache...and "muh Paul Ryan".

[Adam Griffin]

To be fair, in Misty Snow's case, it's not like she'd be competitive in any of Utah's Congressional districts, or in any state house/senate race outside of Salt Lake City. So if she wanted to actually win anything, she'd have to go for those.

But otherwise, I agree that Berniecratic candidate seem to find themselves in a lot of super-Republican districts.

My main point there was absurdity combined with a bit of realism. At least Roby's district in 2016 showed it was willing to punish a halfway influential GOP incumbent for standing up to Trump (look at the margins) - something the people of WI-1 are firmly never, ever going to do to Ryan, which is pretty much the only way he could never be in danger of losing. They love him and because of the natural tilt of the district + his leadership role, they're never going to tilt enough out of his column for him to be truly vulnerable.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd rather see someone like John Dickert (former Mayor of Racine) or Corey Mason (his State Senate District covers Racine) run here.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

As much as I would like to see Paul Ryan lose reelection, this should be a safe seat for him.

[MT Treasurer]

This poll indeed suggests "big trouble" for one candidate here, but it's not Paul Ryan. Mark Kirk released an internal poll showing him trailing Duckworth by 1 or something like that, and we all know what happened there.

[Shadows]

Paul Ryan will win this, in the end by 18-20% atleast. It will be a comfortable victory. Everyone will come down including Trump & the ad spends will be crazy if need be.

But Ryan isn't losing. But still this race should be fun & enjoyable. Dems should fight everywhere, thing about 2020 or 2022 & try & get a good result (without spending endless money like GA-06)

[Badger]

There's no link. Who did this poll?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Hopefully this cycle will end the Democratic party's brief flirtation with working-class gimmick candidates like this guy and Quist.

[GlobeSoc]

Hopefully this cycle will end the Democratic party's brief flirtation with working-class gimmick candidates like this guy and Quist.

I don't want it to be just a gimmick, but I do want working-class candidates of all races to run on the democratic side

[Mr. Smith]

Hopefully this cycle will end the Democratic party's brief flirtation with working-class gimmick candidates like this guy and Quist.

And what, see the party remain branded as a bunch of stiff elitists who only let in career people like Jon Ossoff or fat cats like Archie Parnell? What a joke!

[Young Conservative]

Invincible Mega Ultra Safe R