When will the VA GOP win the VA governorship again?

[Suburbia]

Since then Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's landslide win in 2009 against lackluster Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds , the Virginia Republican Party has been in a slightly downward spiral, despite having control of the Virginia House of Delegates since 2000. This year, in 2017, Former Bush White House insider and RNC chair Ed Gillespie looks like an electable Virginia suburban Republican of the VA GOP mold, but barely won the June 2017 primary to more conservative outsider Corey Stewart. Gillespie is facing Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam in a marquee gubernatorial race.

Then-Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli lost in 2013 in a bitter race to Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Some say it was because of bitter tensions with the Republican Party.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/08/24/the-virginia-gop-shows-why-its-becoming-irrelevant/?utm_term=.32237b54d0ae

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-future-looks-grim-for-virginia-republicans/2017/08/18/39ff7d38-81f1-11e7-b359-15a3617c767b_story.html?utm_term=.a0712a097c66


When will they win again in VA's top office?

[Rjjr77]

Could happen this year, Gillespie is a good campaigner and an even better campaign innovator. I have this lean D but Gillespie winning is solidly in my probability curve.

[_]

Either this year (tossup/tilt D imo) or in 2033

[Kingpoleon]

2021. Barbara Comstock defeats Ryan Sawyers or Lawrence D. Wilder Jr.

[Deblano]

Either this year (tossup/tilt D imo) or in 2033

Why such a date that far into the future?

[_]

Either this year (tossup/tilt D imo) or in 2033

Why such a date that far into the future?

VA-GOP will be too far to the right until 2033 after 2017 imo.  Gillespie is their last chance in this era imo, probably wrong though.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Winning this year isn't out of the question; Northam has made a number of unforced errors (not attending the Buena Vista Labor Day parade), but I still think NOVA will save him in the end, due to Gillespie being tied to Trump, who is especially toxic with government workers.

Maybe 2021 or 2025, when the D base is depressed.

[Meatball Ron]

2021. Barbara Comstock defeats Ryan Sawyers or Lawrence D. Wilder Jr.

Considering Sawyers is currently facing a recall and Wilder's only political experience is a two year stint in the legislature over two decades ago, I highly doubt either will be the Democratic candidate in this state with a decent bench.

[Del Tachi]

I'll say 2025

[windjammer]

Next time democrats are in the White House

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's been eight years and I still don't understand what was Deeds' appeal...

Next time democrats are in the White House

McAuliffe's election broke "D president - R governor" cycle. Just saying.

[windjammer]

It's been eight years and I still don't understand what was Deeds' appeal...

Next time democrats are in the White House

McAuliffe's election broke "D president - R governor" cycle. Just saying.

Because republicans nominated this degenerate obsessed with upholding sodomy laws, and he only lost by 2, despote being terrible and during a govt shutdown.

[Virginiá]

My thoughts on the VA gubernatorial trend of the past couple generations, as re-posted from AAD:

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(changed some text so the point was clearer)

[Frodo]

When they forsake their current strategy of appealing to white supremacists and neo-Confederates (and their enablers), and actually strive to make their party a genuinely multi-racial and multi-ethnic coalition. 

[Xing]

Next time democrats are in the White House

This is my current guess, so 2021 or 2025.

[Kingpoleon]

2021. Barbara Comstock defeats Ryan Sawyers or Lawrence D. Wilder Jr.

Considering Sawyers is currently facing a recall and Wilder's only political experience is a two year stint in the legislature over two decades ago, I highly doubt either will be the Democratic candidate in this state with a decent bench.

It appears I confused Wilder with someone else, but isn't Sawyers's recall something launched by people with ties to Wittman?

[Panhandle Progressive]

When the runner-up for the party nomination isn't a huge confederate supporter, even in the wake of the tragic hate spewers in Charlottesville. That candidate, Corey Stewart, came within a 1.25% of winning the nomination. He is now running against Kaine for the U.S. Senate seat. I believe he will be destroyed against Kaine if Republicans select him. The Democrat in me wants to see this election. But the political junkie in me wants to see a Kaine-Gillespie matchup, which could result in Dems losing. But by all means Republicans, please nominate the easiest to beat for a Senate seat.

WORTH REPEATING:

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[BuckeyeNut]

Could happen this year, for as I have observed elsewhere, VA Dems may have made the same mistake national Dems made in choosing the establishment moderate over the populist. I think it's much more likely to happen in 2021, so long as Trump isn't President any longer.

[Mr. Smith]

Winning this year isn't out of the question; Northam has made a number of unforced errors (not attending the Buena Vista Labor Day parade), but I still think NOVA will save him in the end, due to Gillespie being tied to Trump, who is especially toxic with government workers.

Maybe 2021 or 2025, when the D base is depressed.

Seriously? Gee, 2017 might be blown after all in such a case.

I originally figured 2021 just to keep in line with the whole "go against the incumbent party" trend that only got broken because Da' C*&ch was the other guy in 2013.

But that's like Hillary forgetting Wisconsin.

[President Johnson]

I'd say 2021 if the president is a Democrat by then. Except for 2013, Virginia has always voted for a governor of the opposition party. Although the state is increasingly Democratic leaning, the GOP has still a shot at winning.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Gillespie's a good candidate; one of the VA GOP's best.

It really is do or die for the VA GOP in this Governor's race, so maybe they'll eke it out.

[Figueira]

While I think the fundamentals (Virginia+Trump) still favor Northam, it could happen this year.

After that, who knows? It's hard to see them getting another Gillespie-caliber candidate.

[Coraxion]

2021. Barbara Comstock defeats Ryan Sawyers or Lawrence D. Wilder Jr.

Comstock's political career will be over after her Blanching.

[SoLongAtlas]

A long time from now if they keep pushing candidates statewide like rehashes (Gillespie) and Confederates/wackjobs (Stewart/E.W. Jackson). They might be able to win if they max out downstate but that is an outside chance with the growth of NoVA and Tidewater holding that possibility at bay.

The only chance for the VA GOP to win again is if they put up a moderate candidate in the mold of Jon Huntsman. Even then, it would be a fight.

[Frodo]

A long time from now if they keep pushing candidates statewide like rehashes (Gillespie) and Confederates/wackjobs (Stewart/E.W. Jackson). They might be able to win if they max out downstate but that is an outside chance with the growth of NoVA and Tidewater holding that possibility at bay.

The only chance for the VA GOP to win again is if they put up a moderate candidate in the mold of Jon Huntsman. Even then, it would be a fight.

Judging by Corey Stewart's near-win, and his passionate following of white nationalists and neo-Confederates that seem to comprise at least half the Virginia GOP's activist base, it will be very difficult for Republicans to choose anyone other than candidates like him in the future.  Ed Gillespie is, I think, the last remotely mainstream Republican to win the gubernatorial nomination for a long time to come.  

I would like them to become a more genuinely multiracial and multiethnic party in the future, but how they get there from here is truly a Gordion's Knot I'm not sure they will prove capable of untying for awhile.