Categorizing elections historically... (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Categorizing elections historically... (search mode)
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Author Topic: Categorizing elections historically...  (Read 3118 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: February 03, 2018, 03:46:22 PM »

Freedom list! I find it fascinating that (1) two elections were lost by the PV winner that weren't even nail-biters (1876 and 2016), and (2) there were so many landslides-- nearly half! Also remarkable that there have been none since 1984.

Also, 1980 clearly stands out as a non-landslide (PV margin was 9.73%, not 10%) even though Reagan '80 won the 5th biggest EV share in history (behind FDR '36, Reagan '84, Nixon '72, and-- by a whisker-- Lincoln 1864). Most people I know who came of age in the '80s (and who voted for Reagan) consider it a landslide.


Yea, pre-1984 a lot of states were closely won and could be swayed even with a slight change in the PV. However the rural vote becoming consistently republican means that its harder for a Democrat to swing states. Had Obama won the same PV as Reagan did in their first elections he only would had gotten 379 EV's. far from Reagan's 489.

The flip side of this is that a 15%+ PV margin would now net more EV for a Democrat than for a Republican, because CA/NY/IL are so Safe D right now. 
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