Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump

[Adam Griffin]

Alabama Update:

I'm somewhat convinced Huntsville (#4) has gone to Clinton.

I'm not entirely convinced that this is true, for reasons I outlined on the first page:

Huntsville would be really close. Obama carried it by 1 in 2008 with the county as a whole going to McCain by 15. In 2016, Trump won the county by 16. Based on the broader trends in last year's election, it wouldn't surprise me if unincorporated Madison County swung to Clinton while Huntsville proper swung to Trump (compared to 2008). The real question is by how much?

Unfortunately, there is no real way to know given the fact that Madison County has since consolidated precincts with no regard for municipal boundaries.

The more I've thought about it, the more I tend to believe that the broader discrepancy in 2016 when compared to 08/12 (that in bigger counties that swung slightly to Clinton and Trump, the more urban areas saw Democratic turnout drop and the more suburban areas swung to Clinton) would apply here. Huntsville's Democratic base is heavily reliant on black voters: exactly who would and did drop off in big numbers throughout the South and beyond in 2016.

When I think about the '08 numbers I posted above along with that, I imagine the gap (16 points in 2008) would have narrowed somewhat. Trump won the county by 1 point more than McCain, but it very well may be that instead of the Dem winning Huntsville by 1 and losing the rest of Madison by 30, it's a case of the Dem losing Huntsville by 3 and losing the rest of Madison by 25 or so.

How did you parse out the results? When I looked at Huntsville versus Madison's current precincts, it looked like too much of a hot mess to really accurately gather results by merely adding up precincts. Are you using Census data to approximate population portions that are in the city boundaries of each split precinct or comparing side-by-side elections on the same day in both Madison and Huntsville to get an idea based on proportionate turnout/votes cast?

[Adam Griffin]

I used census data to help approximate what percent of a precinct's population is not within municipal borders. It's not as bad as one might think in some areas, because much of the annexed territory has next to no people living there in some parts of these salients.

Also, your intuition about Clinton losing ground due to lower black turnout is correct and gaining ground in suburban areas is correct, but the conclusion drawn from that is wrong.

If you look at the stretch of development from 4 Mile Post Road SE to the Tennessee river, all of that Suburbia (territory one would expect to swing to Clinton, and indeed did so by a strong amount) is within Huntsville proper. There are also White areas closer to the urban core that swung strongly to Clinton.

Rural and exurban areas still swung to Trump as well.

All of the precincts that Clinton carried by a strong margin are completely inside Huntsville (in fact, every precinct Clinton carried in Madison County, with the exception of Triana City Hall precinct, is entirely within Huntsville proper). The question is simply, "are there enough Trump areas left to overcome Clinton's margins in Northern Huntsville". Even making favorable assumptions regarding the division of complicated precincts, I don't think one can justify Trump doing well enough in remaining Huntsville to win the city.

After cleaning up the formatting, I'll post my data here sometime later today, but I stand behind it.

Sounds like you've done the homework, so I'll defer to your data. I guess it does make sense given that Huntsville has a decent amount of sprawl and would take in a lot of areas where Democratic improvement over 2012 would be naturally present - that combined with the broader white demographic makeup of the city could definitely be enough to counteract black drop-off relative to 2008's performance.

[NOVA Green]

For Nebraska looks to be possibly #3 Bellevue, or if not #4 Grand Island....

I ran the precinct numbers for Omaha and it went 47.1 Dem- 44.5 R.

Would be surprised to see #2 Lincoln closer than Omaha...

I'll be taking a look at Sarpy County precinct results here shortly to see if I can confirm #3....

[NOVA Green]

Confirmed Trump by Precinct summation

Nebraska- #3- Bellevue- City- Sarpy County

Pop 51.9k, MHI $ 59.2k,

Race/Ethnicity: 74.3% White, 13.6% Latino, 6.3% Black, 2.8% Mixed, 1.8% Asian

Age: 17% 60+, 30% 50+

Education: 36.3% > HS Diploma, 28% Bachlors Degree or Higher

Occupations/Industries: Skew heavily towards White Collar and Professional Jobs

Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

I've been a bit curious about Sarpy County for awhile, since based on some precinct work that I did on other threads, it didn't really experience the major swings towards the Democratic candidate in '16, unlike most other upper-income precincts and places in the United States....

Although I didn't look at Bellevue at the time, I did run the numbers for some other communities in the County....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

[NOVA Green]

Updating the list...

State	City	Rank in State	Source	Method
Alabama	Huntsville	4	reagente	precinct summation (estimate)
Alaska	Anchorage	1	Fuzzybigfoot	educated inference
Arizona	Mesa	3	DecisionDeskHQ	educated inference
Arkansas	Fort Smith	2	reagente	precinct summation
California	Bakersfield	9	nclib	?
Colorado
Connecticut	Bristol	11	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Delaware	Milford	6	reagente	precinct summation (estimate)
District of Columbia	n/a	n/a
Florida	Hialeah	6	Gog3451	precinct summation
Georgia	Roswell	8	reagente	precinct summation
Hawaii	Laie	45	reagente	educated inference; lack of precinct data
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas	Witchita	1	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Kentucky
Louisiana	Lafayette	4	reagente	precinct summation
Maine	Auburn	5	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Maryland	Hagerstown	6	reagente	precinct summation
Massachusetts	Westfield	32	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Michigan	Sterling Heights	4	nclib	consolidated city
Minnesota	St. Cloud	10	nclib	consolidated city
Mississippi	Gulfport	2	reagente	precinct summation (estimate)
Missouri	Springfield	3	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Montana	Billings	1	Fuzzybigfoot	educated inference
Nebraska
Nevada	Henderson	2	NOVA Green	precinct summation
New Hampshire	Rochester	5	NOVA Green	consolidated city-county
New Jersey	Ocean City	29	nclib	consolidated city
New Mexico	Rio Rancho	3	reagente	inference of precinct data
New York	Rome	15	nclib	consolidated city
North Carolina	Concord	11	reagente	precinct summation
North Dakota	Fargo	1	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Ohio	Parma	7	nclib	Ohio Department of Elections
Oklahoma	Oklahoma City	1	Fmr. Pres. Griffin	precinct summation
Oregon	Medford	8	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Pennsylvania	Altoona	10	nclib	consolidated city
Rhode Island	Coventry	7	NOVA Green	consolidated city
South Carolina	Mount Pleasant	4	reagente	inference of precinct data
South Dakota	Sioux Falls	1	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Tennessee	Clarksville	5	ExtremeConservative	precinct summation
Texas
Utah
Vermont	Barre	5	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Virginia	Virginia Beach	1	nclib	consolidated city-county
Washington	Yakima	10	Keel cool-idge	?
West Virginia	Huntington	2	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Wisconsin	Waukesha	7	nclib	consolidated city
Wyoming	Cheyenne	1	nclib	inference of precinct data

To fill in the blank on California, NcLib probably pulled them from this official document that California publishes as a supplement document to the SoV....

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

So, if we scroll down to page 17 and look at Kern County you see the following results for the City of Bakersfield...

Bakersfield-  50,390 (D) 57,670 (R) 1,340 (GRN) 4,320 (LBT) 679 (Peace & Freedom)....

So results would be: (44.0 D - 50.4 R)      +6.4% R

[NOVA Green]

Updating the list...

State	City	Rank in State	Source	Method
Alabama	Huntsville	4	reagente	precinct summation (estimate)
Alaska	Anchorage	1	Fuzzybigfoot	educated inference
Arizona	Mesa	3	DecisionDeskHQ	educated inference
Arkansas	Fort Smith	2	reagente	precinct summation
California	Bakersfield	9	nclib	?
Colorado
Connecticut	Bristol	11	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Delaware	Milford	6	reagente	precinct summation (estimate)
District of Columbia	n/a	n/a
Florida	Hialeah	6	Gog3451	precinct summation
Georgia	Roswell	8	reagente	precinct summation
Hawaii	Laie	45	reagente	educated inference; lack of precinct data
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas	Witchita	1	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Kentucky
Louisiana	Lafayette	4	reagente	precinct summation
Maine	Auburn	5	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Maryland	Hagerstown	6	reagente	precinct summation
Massachusetts	Westfield	32	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Michigan	Sterling Heights	4	nclib	consolidated city
Minnesota	St. Cloud	10	nclib	consolidated city
Mississippi	Gulfport	2	reagente	precinct summation (estimate)
Missouri	Springfield	3	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Montana	Billings	1	Fuzzybigfoot	educated inference
Nebraska
Nevada	Henderson	2	NOVA Green	precinct summation
New Hampshire	Rochester	5	NOVA Green	consolidated city-county
New Jersey	Ocean City	29	nclib	consolidated city
New Mexico	Rio Rancho	3	reagente	inference of precinct data
New York	Rome	15	nclib	consolidated city
North Carolina	Concord	11	reagente	precinct summation
North Dakota	Fargo	1	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Ohio	Parma	7	nclib	Ohio Department of Elections
Oklahoma	Oklahoma City	1	Fmr. Pres. Griffin	precinct summation
Oregon	Medford	8	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Pennsylvania	Altoona	10	nclib	consolidated city
Rhode Island	Coventry	7	NOVA Green	consolidated city
South Carolina	Mount Pleasant	4	reagente	inference of precinct data
South Dakota	Sioux Falls	1	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Tennessee	Clarksville	5	ExtremeConservative	precinct summation
Texas
Utah
Vermont	Barre	5	NOVA Green	consolidated city
Virginia	Virginia Beach	1	nclib	consolidated city-county
Washington	Yakima	10	Keel cool-idge	?
West Virginia	Huntington	2	NOVA Green	precinct summation
Wisconsin	Waukesha	7	nclib	consolidated city
Wyoming	Cheyenne	1	nclib	inference of precinct data

I also want to note that the WA '16 results that Keep cool-idge posted are legit and some from a comprehensive Excel spreadsheet of all WA precincts, that even wraps data up by municipality. This data was provided to me by one of the best precinct level experts who rarely posts these days on Atlas anymore...

Washington can be coded as a precinct summation by Keep Cool-Idge

Yakima: 12,954 Clinton (43.3 D)- 14,223 Trump (47.5 R)         +4.2% R

[NOVA Green]

So, spent some time looking at Idaho....

Have a bit of beef with the Ada County elections department in that they don't easily allow one to export data into an Excel spreadsheet, so that I can code by municipal results....

Damn County robbed over an hour of my time....

#1: Boise---- Confirmed "NOT TRUMP"

Excluded about a half dozen split precincts, which wouldn't move the needle dramatically anyway you look at it...

2016: 29,463 Trump (34.3%), 44,760 Clinton (52.1%), 4,956 Johnson (5.8%), 3,832 McMullin (4.5%), 1,990 Stein (2.3%).... remainder to various 3rd Party candidates whose names are not familiar even to most of us on Atlas...

Next stop Nampa....

[NOVA Green]

Idaho---

Nampa confirmed Trump....

HRC didn't win a single precinct in Canyon County, unless my "old man eyes" are deceiving me, and honestly didn't feel the need to try to parse precincts by City at this time....

[NOVA Green]

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

[NOVA Green]

So for Kentucky, which is a very difficult state to work with for precinct level results, I think we can eliminate #1 Louisville and #2 Lexington-Fayette for obvious reasons.

I ran the best numbers I could find for precincts that appear to be located within #3 Bowling Green and found the following:

Clinton: 8,165 Votes (48.1%), Trump: 7,637 Votes (45.0%)

So it appears we can eliminate this City, unless someone can find better numbers for the City....

That leaves #4 Owensboro and #5 Covington to be examined....

[NOVA Green]

There's virtually no chance that Fargo ND, Sioux Falls SD, or Billings MT voted for Hillary.  Likewise, North and South Dakota should be colored pink as well.  

By the way, Cynic has election data that shows Anchorage AK went to Trump by high single digits.  


Btw, I did some work on Dave's redistricting app a few years ago, and Obama lost Billings MT by 4%-6% back in '08, even though he only lost the state by 3%.

So not to doubt Cynic or Fuzzybigfoot regarding Alaska, I decided to take a look at Anchorage myself...

It was a bit difficult, so decided to skip over downloading a huge Text file for every single precinct in Alaska, that I would then need to run through an entire file conversion process and all that....

So fine, found this link from the Alaska Dispatch news published on 11/19/16:

https://www.adn.com/politics/2016/11/19/interactive-map-precinct-by-precinct-presidential-results-show-a-deeply-divided-alaska/

Pretty cool right, allows one to zoom on and collect the major two party election vote totals...

So I have some doubts if these results included just same day voting versus VbM, but figured hell why not at least test the data, built my spreadsheet and manually entered results, etc and came up with something like the following for precincts that appeared to be logically located within City boundaries...  HRC ~47%-- DJT 53%.

Ok--- now time to doubt check to see if some of the precincts were Uninc areas, and you get something like the following

https://www.muni.org/Departments/OCPD/Planning/PublishingImages/vicinity.gif

Does the City of Anchorage really extend that far? Would appear to be insane, so then I pull up the '15 Mayoral election results, and sure enough even Eagle River appears to be included within the Anchorage City Limits....

http://www.muni.org/Departments/Assembly/Clerk/Elections/Election%20Results/SOVC2015.pdf

I still have some questions about Early Voting and Absentee results for Anchorage, (And Alaska at whole) which if they were not included might well make the City a bit closer, considering College Students voting remotely, Millennials working out on Fishing Boats, and all that stuff....

It really appears that Alaska wraps up EVs and Absentees only by District and doesn't include them in the raw precinct totals, making it virtually impossible to break down by munipality to obtain better numbers....

Still, I decide to take a look at absentee and EV results for US Pres for districts 1-6, just to see what the numbers looked like. HRC won 2/6 districts with the Absentee Vote, and Trump added to his lead.

Early Voting, HRC wins 4/6 and numbers are probably about 50-50...

I guess since I've gone this far I might take an hour or so next week to add in the EVs/Absentees, and all of the remaining precincts within what appears to be the huge municipality of Anchorage.

So yeah, Cynic and Fuzzybigfoot are probably close to spot on about Anchorage being a high single digit Trump town, although I would be really curious about 3rd Party proportions of the Vote, and I suspect that would drag Trump's margins down below 50%....

[nclib]

For Nebraska looks to be possibly #3 Bellevue, or if not #4 Grand Island....

I ran the precinct numbers for Omaha and it went 47.1 Dem- 44.5 R.

Would be surprised to see #2 Lincoln closer than Omaha...

I'll be taking a look at Sarpy County precinct results here shortly to see if I can confirm #3....

Confirmed Trump by Precinct summation

Nebraska- #3- Bellevue- City- Sarpy County

Pop 51.9k, MHI $ 59.2k,

Race/Ethnicity: 74.3% White, 13.6% Latino, 6.3% Black, 2.8% Mixed, 1.8% Asian

Age: 17% 60+, 30% 50+

Education: 36.3% > HS Diploma, 28% Bachlors Degree or Higher

Occupations/Industries: Skew heavily towards White Collar and Professional Jobs

Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

I've been a bit curious about Sarpy County for awhile, since based on some precinct work that I did on other threads, it didn't really experience the major swings towards the Democratic candidate in '16, unlike most other upper-income precincts and places in the United States....

Although I didn't look at Bellevue at the time, I did run the numbers for some other communities in the County....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

Did we confirm Lincoln, NE for HRC?

[nclib]

Maryland:

Clinton clearly won Baltimore (#1), Frederick (#2), Rockville (#3), Gaithersburg (#4), and Bowie (#5).

Trump clearly wins Hagerstown (#6):

Trump - 5249 (48.51%)
Clinton - 4893 (43.72%)

No precinct fuzziness to deal with, clean cut borders only. Maryland confirmed.

Maryland has a lot of well-known communities that are unincorporated CDPs. Would any of them make it if they were incorporated?

[nclib]

Alabama - possibly Huntsville (4)

31% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Ala. standards.

Huntsville would be really close. Obama carried it by 1 in 2008 with the county as a whole going to McCain by 15. In 2016, Trump won the county by 16. Based on the broader trends in last year's election, it wouldn't surprise me if unincorporated Madison County swung to Clinton while Huntsville proper swung to Trump (compared to 2008). The real question is by how much?

Unfortunately, there is no real way to know given the fact that Madison County has since consolidated precincts with no regard for municipal boundaries.

Wow about Huntsville. Next would not be Tuscaloosa after all (actually 41% black), so would be Hoover if not Huntsville.

I know it's a moot point now that Huntsville voted for Trump, but someone in the 1-A football thread claimed that Tuscaloosa was confirmed for Trump, I doubt this - can you confirm?

[NOVA Green]

For Nebraska looks to be possibly #3 Bellevue, or if not #4 Grand Island....

I ran the precinct numbers for Omaha and it went 47.1 Dem- 44.5 R.

Would be surprised to see #2 Lincoln closer than Omaha...

I'll be taking a look at Sarpy County precinct results here shortly to see if I can confirm #3....

Confirmed Trump by Precinct summation

Nebraska- #3- Bellevue- City- Sarpy County

Pop 51.9k, MHI $ 59.2k,

Race/Ethnicity: 74.3% White, 13.6% Latino, 6.3% Black, 2.8% Mixed, 1.8% Asian

Age: 17% 60+, 30% 50+

Education: 36.3% > HS Diploma, 28% Bachlors Degree or Higher

Occupations/Industries: Skew heavily towards White Collar and Professional Jobs

Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

I've been a bit curious about Sarpy County for awhile, since based on some precinct work that I did on other threads, it didn't really experience the major swings towards the Democratic candidate in '16, unlike most other upper-income precincts and places in the United States....

Although I didn't look at Bellevue at the time, I did run the numbers for some other communities in the County....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

Did we confirm Lincoln, NE for HRC?

No--- I did not run the numbers specifically for Lincoln, NE, but have played around with other precinct results within the County....

Still, running through the precinct returns from '16 matched against Mayoral Results by precincts for '15 we see....

HRC: 38,473 (44.9%), DJT 38,287 (44.7%)    +0.2%

Clinton won Lincoln by significantly larger percentages than that however if one looks at the Absentee Votes: HRC 18,865 (54.4%), DJT 13,249 (38.2%)....

Unfortunately Lancaster County does not break down absentees by precinct....

Still considering that Clinton won same day voting in the largest population center, and didn't appear to have won a single precinct outside of City Limits, I think it is completely safe to say that Clinton won Lincoln by a Mid-Single Digit margin....

Unless anyone has better numbers, I consider Lincoln, Nebraska to be confirmed Clinton based upon the preponderance of evidence in both actual same say votes within the City, as well as absentee votes and patterns within the County....

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No--- I'm not sure, which is part of the reason I'm still not confident on numbers for Fort Worth as well.

1.) If we use the '15 Statistical Atlas numbers for Arlington we have about 25k residents in Dallas County with the overwhelming majority in Tarrant County.

2.) If we code by municipality and use '15 municipal results for Arlington Precincts in Tarrant, we get the 47.4% D- 46.9% R numbers....   Still 3.7k 3rd Party and 34.6k Dem/Rep seems a bit low.

3.) Still, unless precinct boundaries changed dramatically between '15 and '16, the Tarrant County numbers look decent for both Fort Worth and Arlington in respective Trump/Clinton votes by precinct/municipality.

4.) Numbers definitely look odd, even considering the generally abysmal VAP turnout rate in Texas compared to almost any other state in the Union....

Still 28% of Arlington is < 18 Yrs Old, and additional 27% is 18-35 Yrs....

The numbers are even more lopsided in Fort Worth....

So we have two of the largest cities in Texas, as well as some of the larger cities in the US that are essentially overwhelmingly dominated by a population under the age of 35 Yrs....

5.) So yes there is a chance that precinct boundaries shifted between '15 and '16 in Tarrant County, although I haven't seen any data online to support that. Sure, there are a small number of precincts in Fort Worth and Arlington that stretch over County lines, so potentially Trump might have narrowly won Arlington once we add the Dallas County precincts into the mix, but Fort Worth definitely is voted off the Island....

6.) The more one looks at these numbers, the more questionable the Republican electoral coalition looks like in Texas..... Harris County moving Hard D, Fort Bend County flips, and now it looks like Tarrant County will likely flip within the next few Pres Election cycles as well.

Houston we have a problem....

According to the Tarrant County Election website, there was a concurrent city proposition in Arlington that got 116,867 votes. Your numbers seem to be off...

I have agreed and agree with the consensus.... obviously we need to take a deeper look with "All the Eyes of Texas" playing in the background....

This state definitely needs a much closer examination, since thus far I believe we have settled most state, minus some double-checking here and there, defining "largest municipality" (Incorporated, Unic, CDP, etc...)..

Texas is so big and difficult to run numbers on, it almost deserves it's own thread.

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No--- I'm not sure, which is part of the reason I'm still not confident on numbers for Fort Worth as well.

1.) If we use the '15 Statistical Atlas numbers for Arlington we have about 25k residents in Dallas County with the overwhelming majority in Tarrant County.

2.) If we code by municipality and use '15 municipal results for Arlington Precincts in Tarrant, we get the 47.4% D- 46.9% R numbers....   Still 3.7k 3rd Party and 34.6k Dem/Rep seems a bit low.

3.) Still, unless precinct boundaries changed dramatically between '15 and '16, the Tarrant County numbers look decent for both Fort Worth and Arlington in respective Trump/Clinton votes by precinct/municipality.

4.) Numbers definitely look odd, even considering the generally abysmal VAP turnout rate in Texas compared to almost any other state in the Union....

Still 28% of Arlington is < 18 Yrs Old, and additional 27% is 18-35 Yrs....

The numbers are even more lopsided in Fort Worth....

So we have two of the largest cities in Texas, as well as some of the larger cities in the US that are essentially overwhelmingly dominated by a population under the age of 35 Yrs....

5.) So yes there is a chance that precinct boundaries shifted between '15 and '16 in Tarrant County, although I haven't seen any data online to support that. Sure, there are a small number of precincts in Fort Worth and Arlington that stretch over County lines, so potentially Trump might have narrowly won Arlington once we add the Dallas County precincts into the mix, but Fort Worth definitely is voted off the Island....

6.) The more one looks at these numbers, the more questionable the Republican electoral coalition looks like in Texas..... Harris County moving Hard D, Fort Bend County flips, and now it looks like Tarrant County will likely flip within the next few Pres Election cycles as well.

Houston we have a problem....

According to the Tarrant County Election website, there was a concurrent city proposition in Arlington that got 116,867 votes. Your numbers seem to be off...

I have agreed and agree with the consensus.... obviously we need to take a deeper look with "All the Eyes of Texas" playing in the background....

This state definitely needs a much closer examination, since thus far I believe we have settled most state, minus some double-checking here and there, defining "largest municipality" (Incorporated, Unic, CDP, etc...)..

Texas is so big and difficult to run numbers on, it almost deserves it's own thread.

What cities would I need to check besides Arlington?

I'm traveling this weekend, so I could probably knock out a few of them on my flight this Saturday.

Well, if you have some time on a long distance flight---- I think the consensus based on all empirical data is that because of of the overall County level returns, combined with objectively considered data, those counties that went heavily HRC, had the largest cities vote for HRC by even much larger margins....

Much of this has to do with the different voting patterns of Anglos within the Larger Cities of Texas versus the spawling Unincorporated subdivisions that drive deep into the Coastal Prairies, Northern Prairies, and create giant rings around some of the largest Metro Areas in the US, such as DFW, Houston, SA, & Austin....

An additional factor to consider as well, is that traditionally Republicans have been extremely competitive in Texas, even in Presidential Elections among Middle-Class and Upper Middle-Class Latinos in recent years, where they can frequently bag 40% + of the Vote, or even win, compared to  Working-Class that vote much less frequently but tend to vote more like 80-20% Democratic.

So, for all of these reasons I think the overwhelming consensus on Atlas is to eliminate the following Cities from the list (Although as a geek obviously the results would be interesting).

Pop based upon statisticalatlas.com numbers and is likely a bit higher for all these cities in 9/17

1.) Houston- Pop 2.135k- Harris County voted (54 D- 42 R).....
2.) San Antonio- Pop 1.359k- Bexar County Voted ( 54 D- 40 R)....
3.) Dallas- Pop 1,222k-  Dallas County Voted (60 D- 34 R)...
4.) Austin- Pop 837k- Travis County Voted (66 D- 27 R)...
5.) Fort Worth- Pop 761k-  Tarrant ONLY ( 43 D-- 52  R)----   

* The precinct numbers I ran for the Tarrant County section of Forth Worth showed as ( 59 D- 37 R). Considering the overwhelming majority of the City voters and population are located within that County....

Still, would be interesting to run the total numbers on Fort Worth in all three counties, since overall population does not equal voters....

Fmr President Griffin ran some interesting numbers on another thread regarding Oklahoma City, so although it is extremely improbable that Trump won Fort Worth, he most likely lost it by significantly less than the Tarrant County numbers suggest.

Would love to see the verifiable numbers overall to see how this looks, since Fort Worth is always on my mind when it comes to politics in the Lone Star State.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272652.msg5834531#msg5834531

6.) El Paso- Pop 661k- El Paso County Vote ( 68 D- 26 R)

So now we get to the cities that need further examination (Although Fort Worth would be interesting just in case there was a large variance between Tarrant County Precincts and those in neighboring counties)

7.) Arlington---- Pop 371.k- NEEDS TOTAL REVIEW

8.) Corpus Christi- Pop 309k- Nueces County voted (47 D- 49 R)---- Def likely HRC vs Trump but not confirmed.

9.) Plano- Pop 267k- Collins County Voted (39 D- 55 R).....

Although I would not be surprised if Plano voted Trump, considering that it likely swung more heavily Democratic than the County at large, in a City where there is a much higher Democratic voting base than many of the even wealthier precincts that swung heavily Dem in '16, with a much smaller voting base, it is likely a stretch without taking a decent "odds-bet" that HRC won Plano.

If not Plano, then we start moving even further down the list to #11 Laredo (HRC)....

Pretty sure #12 Lubbock voted Trump....

So here's your Saturday Plane Flight research project, and if I beat you to it, oh well

Although honestly I likely won't have the time to look into this until Friday.....

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a spreadsheet for Arlington:

Arlington 2016 Spreadsheet

I haven't taken a close look at the data to see where partial precincts might be an issue (I did notice a few where there were 1000+ presidential votes but practically 0 Prop 1 votes), but from a quick look at the old DRA data, precinct boundaries conformed pretty well to municipal ones in previous cycles. I noticed that the presidential race had about 17k more votes from these combined precincts than the Proposition 1 total, so it's likely there are a few precincts that need to be removed from the presidential column due to there being almost no voters in municipal boundaries in those precincts.

With that being said, I think even after the numbers are polished, Clinton carried it unless those partial precincts are overwhelmingly Democratic:

Candidate	# Votes	Percentage	Margin
Clinton	65,404	49.13%	+3.37
Trump	60,910	45.76%
Other	6,808	4.71%

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Just did a quick comparison of vote totals between Prop 1 and 2016-Pres for each Arlington precinct where there was a discrepancy. After all was said and done, the margin shifted in favor of Clinton by about 300 votes (+/-100); virtually no change. I'm very confident Clinton won Arlington by about 3.5 points and just shy of 50%.

EDIT: corrected # typo in previous post, but did not change prelim count to reflect further precinct analysis mentioned here

[NOVA Green]

Wyoming - Cheyenne (1) - Only 1 precinct in Cheyenne's county voted for HRC.

[/quote]

Since I was just looking through some precinct data on Wyoming for another thread, I decided to pop over and take I look at Cheyenne '16 Pres results, not that I doubted your data, but was curious how Republican Cheyenne was in '16.

Cheyenne: 14,687 Trump (54.9%)--- 8,853 Cllinton (33.1%)        + 31.8% R

What is interesting here is how weak Trump's performance was in Cheyenne, considering this is a place where one would imagine Trump should in theory have been fairly popular....

Granted HRC was certainly not popular at all in the '16 GE election, and only won two precincts in the City (1-4 and 1-6 both located in West Cheyenne).

I'm actually wondering about how longer term trends will play out in the City, considering that it is fairly well educated for Wyoming (37.3% > HS Diploma), has a significant and rapidly growing Latino population (14.9% of pop and only about 70% of the pop <19 are White), and is heavily dependent upon Government jobs (14.9% are employed in Government Industries).

I'll need to take a closer look at Cheyenne and bump an older thread on Wyoming with the findings, since I believe I have access to precinct level results going back to 2000, and as the largest City in the State would certainly be interesting to examine (Not that Wyoming is likely to vote Democratic for US-PRES anytime in the near future, still in States like WY pop growth tends to mainly occur in the cities, rather than in the overwhelmingly Republican rural areas).

[nclib]

                             
*IL city: 22   Crystal Lake   McHenry
municipality: 21    Orland Park village (Cook, Will)
township: Orland twp, Cook County

*IL Election results are mainly done by township, and cities don't always correspond. I approximated city results by the whole townships they were in, even if the city does not necessarily make up each whole township.

Orland Park village and Orland twp have been confirmed for Trump, while Crystal Lake is likely. Is it worth checking bigger cities/municipalities in IL to see if any voted for Trump?

[Adam Griffin]

Maryland:

Glen Burie (#7) confirmed Trump by precinct summation:

Trump - 9,764 (48.28%)
Clinton - 9,049 (44.75%)

Arizona

As for Arizona, I don't think Mesa (#3) needs to be checked (it doesn't look like a Trump blowout, but I don't see how Clinton carried the place), but I guess someone could do it if they really wish to check it.

I'm going to take a look at Mesa just out of curiosity; I'm transposing the data from the Maricopa County's crappy PDFs and am about halfway done (going in numerical order; currently 52-38). Gotta step out for a bit but will finish it when I return.

[nclib]

Also, did we ever decide how to properly parse out the different types of municipalities up in the Northeast? Did I get the list correct?

Here's what I have for the Northeast, where some towns/townships are more populous than some cities, though cities are often more dense and more Democratic.

Conn. city:    9 Bristol
municipality: 13 Bristol

Mass. city: 29   Westfield
municipality: 33 Westfield         

R.I. city: all RI cities voted for HRC   
municipality: 7 Coventry
         
N.H.   city: 5 Rochester
municipality: 4 Derry
         
ME:  5 Auburn

VT   city: 4 Barre
municipality: 11 Barre

N.Y. city: 15   Rome   Oneida
municipality: Brookhaven,   Suffolk County
                     
Penn. city: 10   Altoona   Blair
township: 14 Millcreek twp, Erie County
                     
NJ city: 29 Ocean City   Cape May
municipality: 7   Lakewood twp   Ocean (though it is still listed on Wiki's list of cities with over 100K)

I see your list includes some cities and some municipalities when they differ. Also, for the Northeast, I used the list given on Wiki which is often 2010, while some Wiki lists for other states use more recent estimates.

[Adam Griffin]

Mesa, AZ (excluding precinct splits):

Trump 94793 (53.13%) +15.77
Clinton 66655 (37.36%)
Johnson 9076 (5.09%)
Other 5396 (3.02%)
Stein 2512 (1.41%)

[NOVA Green]

Utah:

Salt Lake City (#1) is obviously Clinton.

West Valley City (#2) confirmed Clinton. (41-32)

Provo (#3) confirmed Trump by precinct summation:

Trump - 12,680
McMullin - 11,419
Clinton - 6,277

Not that it was ever in question, but since I was running the numbers for SLC on another thread, for sake of completeness the precinct summary for SLC is:

HRC: 50,852 (66.1%)
Trump: 12,567 (16.3%)
McMullin: 8,347 (10.8%)