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Author Topic: Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump  (Read 1275 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2017, 02:27:21 am »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

Haven't run the numbers yet... been about two years since "I waltzed across Texas", but fortunately Texas (Believe it or not) actually has some pretty accessible precinct level data and mapping for the largest counties in the Great State....

I found all sorts of precinct results from Texas for a ton of counties, as part of a completely separate topic on another thread that I could drill down to City level results, with a little bit of Lone Star Beer and some True Grit....

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5564689#msg5564689

So we know that precinct level results are available for Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Collin County (Plano), and also for Nueces County (Corpus Christi)....

So, as the old saying goes "everything is bigger in Texas", and that naturally includes precinct level data....

Honestly, I would love to take a look at this in greater detail, but unfortunately will likely need to wait until this weekend, since I need to get up early over the next few days to work on the Assembly Line.

Now, here are potentially a few musical soundtracks for anyone interested in some background songs about Texas while they research this project....

I would strongly suggest that if you like the artist on any links below that you purchase their CDs or songs in whatever musical format of your preference, as I have over the years, since being a musician involves a ton of blood, sweat and tears, and these are all working artists that allow some of their songs to be shared on Youtube, in the hopes that some of y'all might like the sound and pay the artist for their effort. Wink

Gary Nunn: "What I Like about Texas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGukLuXzH1E

George Strait: "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jta1Gz9UnfA

Pat Green: "Songs About Texas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z242kzdYs3A

Willie Nelson & Merle Haggard: "Ballad of Poncho and Lefty"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvdmxszsDM8


Johnny Rodriguez: "Corpus Christi Bay"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdivjLBxye8

Ok--- this is more the "Old Skool" Anglo County songs, but with the Tex-Mex overlap, while meanwhile H-Town (Houston) has become a National Hip-Hop Center that has arguably surpassed Atlanta or New Orleans as the Capitol of Southern Hip-Hop.

I can pull some artists up if anyone is interested, but Texas is simply so Big with a ton of large Metro areas, so more familiar with Houston than Dallas/Fort Worth, let alone San Antonio or Austin Hip-Hop....

Set up a playlist, roll some numbers, be prepared to spend at least 3-4 hours at a minimum on the project, but yeah start with #5 Forth Worth, #7 Arlington, # 8 Corpus, #9 Plano....

Tim Turner might have just hit the nail on the head of the heartbeat of Trump supporters in TX, but even Plano might be an iffy bet for the top Trump town in Tejas...
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2017, 05:24:37 pm »
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Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 05:57:18 pm by cinyc »Logged
ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2017, 11:03:42 pm »
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In Tennessee, I would check:

3) Knoxville
4) Chattanooga
5) Clarksville
6) Murfreesboro

I can't quite tell for Knoxville and Chattanooga, but looking over the precinct results for Montgomery County, it looks highly likely that Trump won Clarksville.  Only one precinct actually has an address that isn't Clarksville, so Trump easily won the Clarksville addresses (is it possible that those could be different from the city limits, though)?  He also won the "Clarksville" precinct roughly 2:1, but that seems to just be referring to Clarksville High School.

If he somehow won none of those, we can be certain that he won #7 (Franklin) because he won every precinct in Williamson County.
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« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2017, 12:23:16 am »
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If Charleston went to Clinton, then did she also win #2 Huntington?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2017, 02:29:17 am »
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Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.

Excellent work and jives with RI's precinct map and raw county level precinct returns that I pulled.... Smiley

Looks like Clinton won Charleston by roughly 55-45 of the two Party Vote Share... Curious about 3rd Party votes in the City....
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cinyc
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« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2017, 08:24:30 pm »
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Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.

Excellent work and jives with RI's precinct map and raw county level precinct returns that I pulled.... Smiley

Looks like Clinton won Charleston by roughly 55-45 of the two Party Vote Share... Curious about 3rd Party votes in the City....

Johnson 765, Stein 282, Castle 58 - if my calculations are correct.
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AN63093
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« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2017, 10:27:22 pm »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

#2 nation wide might be VA Beach?

Of course, VA Beach is a "city" only in the technical sense.  It's a little misleading, because like Jacksonville, it's just a county-sized suburb (in this case, it was formerly Princess Anne County before the consolidation).  The entire "city" is either Norfolk suburbs or the oceanfront resort area.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2017, 12:29:11 am »
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If Charleston went to Clinton, then did she also win #2 Huntington?

No--- It looks like Huntington went Trump in '16 by a plurality.

Unfortunately there is not a precinct map available for the County, and it doesn't appear that own our own GiS precinct mapping expert RI was able to break this County down to precinct level mapping results.

Still, I ran the '16 GE Pres precinct numbers for Cabell County, and based upon precinct location it appears that precincts #10-40 are located within the City limits....

If we use those numbers:

Clinton: 7,346 (43.9%)- Trump (48.1%)- Johnson (4.1%)- Write-Ins/Bernie (1.7%), Mountain Party (!!!) 1.6%, Constitutionalists--- remainder.   Trump +4.2%.

Unless anyone has other data, it appears that # 2 Huntington wins the blue ribbon prize for top Trump City by population in WV.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2017, 06:20:05 pm »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So, since it's my weekend working 4x10s, spent a few hours looking at Tarrant County Texas...

Not just because of this thread, but also as someone who recently lived four years in Texas, I find the state politically fascinating, and other than life circumstances, there's a good chance that I would be a retiree somewhere in the Gulf Coast or the Hill Country regions.

Listening to George Strait "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind" as I type these few words, and basically set Youtube on a George Strait marathon...

So I ran the numbers from Fort Worth precincts in Tarrant County.... It was a bit more complicated than I had expected.... although Texas is a great state, and for many of the large Metro Counties the software packages they use at County Level elections allow one to pull text and import into an Excel spreadsheet.

Then, it should be a simple exercise of coding precincts to match municipalities, correct?

So, I went through the '15 municipal election results from Tarrant to identify precincts that are part of cities/municipalities and coded every precinct associated with places from Fort Worth, Arlington, all the way to Flower Mound.

Based upon these numbers it looks like Clinton won the Tarrant County part of Fort Worth by           ( 58.8 D-  36.8 R)    +20.0% D.

I was amazed and shocked to see how Democratic the City of Fort Worth appears to be....

Still, the problem here is not only the smattering of Fort Worth precincts in neighboring counties (Which was a known variable going into the data analysis), but also were there really only ~75k votes from Fort Worth in Tarrant County?

So, I looked for precinct consolidations and similar variables, and couldn't identify anything publicly available. Any of our Atlasians from Tejas have explanations for the extremely small voter participation level from Fort Worth based upon the '16 numbers I'm seeing?

Sure, I lived almost five years in Texas and get that Fort Worth is 35% Latino, 19% African-American, and only 40% Anglo, so that might explain decreased turnout and the like....

Still, anyways you look at it, the data appears to support the argument that Fort Worth was not Trump's largest City in Tejas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2017, 06:27:20 pm »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.
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« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2017, 11:43:01 pm »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #36 on: September 16, 2017, 03:11:28 am »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No-- absolutely 100% convinced that many of the Tarrrant County numbers are a bit sketch...

Still, voter turnout tends to be much lower in VaP than most states in our great nation, and if these Arlington numbers are totally off the map, then so are the numbers from Fort Worth.

Wish I could confirm '16 GE results within the DFW Metro based upon precinct level data....

Still, voter turnout in Texas is generally fairly low, even in the wealthy Anglo 'Burbs of the the large Metro areas in Texas, so def something to keep an eye on, since changing demographics are increasingly moving Texas into a swing state categlry
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« Reply #37 on: September 16, 2017, 08:58:24 pm »
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Numbers courtesy of Gog3451:

In Florida, Trump won Hialeah (#6) in Florida.

33,718 Trump
33,625 Clinton

I determined (though it didn't take too much effort) that Trump lost Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and St. Petersburg.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2017, 11:03:58 pm »
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So the new map looks something like the following?

Red Confirmed, Pink/Fuscia likely...

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #39 on: September 17, 2017, 12:06:09 am »
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North Dakota....

#1 Fargo confirmed for Trump (43.0% D- 44.7% R- 12.4% Misc)

Looks like Fargo will likely flip in '20 w/o HRC leading the Dem ticket, especially when looking at 3rd Party voting in what is a fairly Liberal Government and College town in ND.
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« Reply #40 on: September 17, 2017, 01:13:09 am »
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Ran the precinct numbers for Minnehaha County, South Dakota.

Confirmed Trump.

#1 Sioux Falls--- (42.5% D- 50.1% R)

Numbers from the largest cities in both ND and SD don't look good for Dem Pres candidates, considering the only way to make both states somewhat competitive are to rack up 10-15% margins in Fargo and Sioux Falls, in order to create large enough vote margins to cover the gap from heavily Republican precincts in the Western parts of the State(s).
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« Reply #41 on: September 17, 2017, 05:25:37 pm »
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Hawaii:
Wheeler AFB CDP (pop 1,634). Trump wins 15 to 14.

Complicating things is that Kahuku CDP (pop 2,614) is located in a precinct that Trump won 796 to 540, but it includes other CDPs within the precinct,
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« Reply #42 on: September 17, 2017, 05:47:44 pm »
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Delaware:

Appears to be Milford (#6).

No exact numbers since precincts are not co-terminus with municipal boundaries.

Wilmington, Dover, Newark, and Middleton were not close. Smyrna was close (and again has the same issue of not having precincts co-terminus with municipal boundaries), but it seems to have gone for Clinton.
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« Reply #43 on: September 17, 2017, 07:07:17 pm »
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In Nevada, it is either #2 Henderson (probably not), #5 Sparks, #6 Carson City, or definitely #7 Fernley.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: September 17, 2017, 10:11:31 pm »
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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No--- I'm not sure, which is part of the reason I'm still not confident on numbers for Fort Worth as well.

1.) If we use the '15 Statistical Atlas numbers for Arlington we have about 25k residents in Dallas County with the overwhelming majority in Tarrant County.

2.) If we code by municipality and use '15 municipal results for Arlington Precincts in Tarrant, we get the 47.4% D- 46.9% R numbers....   Still 3.7k 3rd Party and 34.6k Dem/Rep seems a bit low.

3.) Still, unless precinct boundaries changed dramatically between '15 and '16, the Tarrant County numbers look decent for both Fort Worth and Arlington in respective Trump/Clinton votes by precinct/municipality.

4.) Numbers definitely look odd, even considering the generally abysmal VAP turnout rate in Texas compared to almost any other state in the Union....

Still 28% of Arlington is < 18 Yrs Old, and additional 27% is 18-35 Yrs....

The numbers are even more lopsided in Fort Worth....

So we have two of the largest cities in Texas, as well as some of the larger cities in the US that are essentially overwhelmingly dominated by a population under the age of 35 Yrs....

5.) So yes there is a chance that precinct boundaries shifted between '15 and '16 in Tarrant County, although I haven't seen any data online to support that. Sure, there are a small number of precincts in Fort Worth and Arlington that stretch over County lines, so potentially Trump might have narrowly won Arlington once we add the Dallas County precincts into the mix, but Fort Worth definitely is voted off the Island....

6.) The more one looks at these numbers, the more questionable the Republican electoral coalition looks like in Texas..... Harris County moving Hard D, Fort Bend County flips, and now it looks like Tarrant County will likely flip within the next few Pres Election cycles as well.

Houston we have a problem....
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« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2017, 09:58:17 am »
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It's likely that Fort Wayne, IN voted for Trump. If not, I'd imagine Evansville as the largest? And if not that, it's definitely Carmel.
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« Reply #46 on: Today at 02:52:35 am »
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So Updated Map might look something like the follwoing?



Red- Confirmed based upon precinct level data, or other publicaly available sources.

Purple= States where precinct level data indicates an overwhelming vote w/o the necessity of precinct level analysis.

Pink/Fuscia= States where it appears that precinct level/municipal data tends to support the largest city by County, although data might be a bit "mushy"

Gray: States where there are some reasonable arguments and data, but lack of research that yet drills down to definitive level of "Pink" category.

White: States where we might have seen some hypotheses (Or not w/o any real supporting evidence to date).

Next category would be creating confirmed findings, but I think the map at least shows us where we can collectively try to hash the data out in more detail.

Plus, we all like maps... Smiley



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