The next Wisconsin?

[PoliticalShelter]

During the Obama years, the state of Wisconsin had a noticeable shift to the political right signified by the continued success of Scott Walker and culminating with Trump carrying the state.

Which state can you also having a noticeable shift in its political culture over the next few years, whether it be to the democrats or the republicans?

[Tekken_Guy]

Moving right, I don't see that many examples. Trump doesn't seem to be attracting any new supporters since his election. He's pushing more people out of the GOP than pulling in. Beyond that, demographic changes are very much in the Democrats' favor: Boomers, Silents, and GIs dying off, Millennials and GZers taking over, and increasing diversity.

I do, however, see North Carolina and Georgia going in the direction of Virginia, and Texas and Arizona going in the direction of Colorado. Leftward turns in the suburbs of the biggest cities (NoVa, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix) and booming super-liberal cities (Richmond, Raleigh, Austin, San Antonio, Boulder, Tucson) plus growing minorities (mainly blacks in VA/NC/GA and hispanics in TX/CO/AZ) and liberal snowbirds coming from the northeast and midwest.

I see the democrats winning back all the Obama/Trump states (except for Iowa) and gaining NC, GA, AZ, TX, and NE-2. In a super landslide, they'll get IA back and take IN, MO, SC, KS, and MT.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Moving right, I don't see that many examples. Trump doesn't seem to be attracting any new supporters since his election. He's pushing more people out of the GOP than pulling in. Beyond that, demographic changes are very much in the Democrats' favor: Boomers, Silents, and GIs dying off, Millennials and GZers taking over, and increasing diversity.

I do, however, see North Carolina and Georgia going in the direction of Virginia, and Texas and Arizona going in the direction of Colorado. Leftward turns in the suburbs of the biggest cities (NoVa, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix) and booming super-liberal cities (Richmond, Raleigh, Austin, San Antonio, Boulder, Tucson) plus growing minorities (mainly blacks in VA/NC/GA and hispanics in TX/CO/AZ) and liberal snowbirds coming from the northeast and midwest.

I see the democrats winning back all the Obama/Trump states (except for Iowa) and gaining NC, GA, AZ, TX, and NE-2. In a super landslide, they'll get IA back and take IN, MO, SC, KS, and MT.

There aren't big leftward turns in the Dallas and Houston suburbs. If anything, 2016 was a turn towards Gary Johnson.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

I just don't see the "liberalization" of the Dallas and Houston suburbs.  A lot of the "leftward" shift was college educated whites voting for Hillary over Trump.  It would certainly explain why some suburban counties like Williamson, Fort Bend, Rockwall, and Denton had that move towards the Democrats.  I think it will revert in 2020.

[Virginiá]

I just don't see the "liberalization" of the Dallas and Houston suburbs.  A lot of the "leftward" shift was college educated whites voting for Hillary over Trump.  It would certainly explain why some suburban counties like Williamson, Fort Bend, Rockwall, and Denton had that move towards the Democrats.  I think it will revert in 2020.

If Trump runs again in 2020, why would it shift? If anything, college educated whites have only gotten more hostile to Trump. In 2020, not only would he lack their support, but he would have suffered some erosion of his actual base, which might even result in lower numbers, not higher. The best way for Republicans to bring these voters back into the fold is to somehow get Trump to just go away by 2020.

[Keep cool-idge]

Arizona for Democrats, Maine for Republicans.

To be honest Paul lapage was the first sign something was up in Maine but no one not even myself noticed it I will say this when we knew Maine 2 was going for trump that was the first sign Maine was going to be close but even I didn't think it would be as close as Nevada.

[Xing]

If you mean one party will start to have success (but the state will remain competitive) after having very little for years, Arizona seems like a good bet. Minnesota and Georgia are also possibilities.

[Tekken_Guy]

It looks like Trump is pushing people out of the GOP entirely. If the GOP shifts towards Trumpism they'll be alienating many college-educated whites. Kind of like the suburban flight to the Democrats that followed after the Evangelical Conservative takeover of the party. If they moderate they could win people back, but if they go in a Trump-ish direction they'll be in deep trouble.

[Gass3268]

I just don't see the "liberalization" of the Dallas and Houston suburbs.  A lot of the "leftward" shift was college educated whites voting for Hillary over Trump.  It would certainly explain why some suburban counties like Williamson, Fort Bend, Rockwall, and Denton had that move towards the Democrats.  I think it will revert in 2020.

A recent poll showed that only 2% of Romney -> Clinton voters approve of Trump. Why would they come back?

[Orser67]

I actually don't think Wisconsin strongly shifted right-ward during the Obama years. Sure Walker won two terms, but so did Kasich, Sandoval, Baker, LePage, Branstad, and Scott. And Baldwin won the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race. Imo Iowa is a better example of a state that moved to the right during the Obama years.

Anyway, I could see Maine moving right.

[MT Treasurer]

Maine for Republicans, Georgia or Arizona for Democrats. But obviously this comparison is far from perfect for several reasons.

[RINO Tom]

The only state that actually seems to have had this "Trump" or "WWC" or whatever *shift* (mostly due to reasons related to a Trumpish GOP's appeal to these "WWC" voters or whatever) is Michigan.  Ohio was electing tons of Republicans, and its turns toward the GOP had nothing to do with free trade or maxing out rural areas or whatever.  Republicans had had success in Wisconsin and Iowa, as well.  Trump's map, Scott Walker's map, who cares?

[Kingpoleon]

I actually don't think Wisconsin strongly shifted right-ward during the Obama years. Sure Walker won two terms, but so did Kasich, Sandoval, Baker, LePage, Branstad, and Scott. And Baldwin won the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race. Imo Iowa is a better example of a state that moved to the right during the Obama years.

Anyway, I could see Maine moving right.

Charlie Baker and Phil Scott won two terms already?

[erſatz-york]

Moving right, I don't see that many examples. Trump doesn't seem to be attracting any new supporters since his election. He's pushing more people out of the GOP than pulling in. Beyond that, demographic changes are very much in the Democrats' favor: Boomers, Silents, and GIs dying off, Millennials and GZers taking over, and increasing diversity.

I do, however, see North Carolina and Georgia going in the direction of Virginia, and Texas and Arizona going in the direction of Colorado. Leftward turns in the suburbs of the biggest cities (NoVa, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix) and booming super-liberal cities (Richmond, Raleigh, Austin, San Antonio, Boulder, Tucson) plus growing minorities (mainly blacks in VA/NC/GA and hispanics in TX/CO/AZ) and liberal snowbirds coming from the northeast and midwest.

I see the democrats winning back all the Obama/Trump states (except for Iowa) and gaining NC, GA, AZ, TX, and NE-2. In a super landslide, they'll get IA back and take IN, MO, SC, KS, and MT.

Get that toxic sh**t out of here it ain't happening

[erſatz-york]

OP you forgot the victory of rON jOHNSON in 2010

[HomestarSB9]

Minnesota, Iowa, Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan for the Republicans. Alaska, Montana, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia for the Democrats.

[PragmaticPopulist]

For the Democrats, the most likely I think would be Arizona or Virginia (if you count that).

For the Republicans, I think it could be Maine. I'm not convinced though, it will be Minnesota; it's demographics are more favorable to Democrats than other Midwestern states.

[Bidenworth2020]

wisconsin is not a red state, not even close

[Mr. Smith]

I actually don't think Wisconsin strongly shifted right-ward during the Obama years. Sure Walker won two terms, but so did Kasich, Sandoval, Baker, LePage, Branstad, and Scott. And Baldwin won the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race. Imo Iowa is a better example of a state that moved to the right during the Obama years.

Anyway, I could see Maine moving right.

Charlie Baker and Phil Scott won two terms already?

Obviously referring to Rick Scott in Florida when he somehow pulled out against Changing Charlie.

[Kingpoleon]

I actually don't think Wisconsin strongly shifted right-ward during the Obama years. Sure Walker won two terms, but so did Kasich, Sandoval, Baker, LePage, Branstad, and Scott. And Baldwin won the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race. Imo Iowa is a better example of a state that moved to the right during the Obama years.

Anyway, I could see Maine moving right.

Charlie Baker and Phil Scott won two terms already?

Obviously referring to Rick Scott in Florida when he somehow pulled out against Changing Charlie.

Sorry, my mind was on the North. Baker hasn't won two terms, though, and even if/when he does, it doesn't say as much as winning a Senate seat twice by 3-5% against a very strong candidate, as well as winning three gubernatorial elections by 5%+, as well as winning one Presidential election by a very good margin.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

I just don't see the "liberalization" of the Dallas and Houston suburbs.  A lot of the "leftward" shift was college educated whites voting for Hillary over Trump.  It would certainly explain why some suburban counties like Williamson, Fort Bend, Rockwall, and Denton had that move towards the Democrats.  I think it will revert in 2020.

If Trump runs again in 2020, why would it shift? If anything, college educated whites have only gotten more hostile to Trump. In 2020, not only would he lack their support, but he would have suffered some erosion of his actual base, which might even result in lower numbers, not higher. The best way for Republicans to bring these voters back into the fold is to somehow get Trump to just go away by 2020.

I know the traditional view of elections is now up in the air because of 2016.  Incumbency is still a good advantage, and if the economy continues to get better then that may be all is necessary for a shift back.  Also it's not like the Dems can hit him any harder than in 2016 unless he does/says even more that is stupid, which is likely.

[Virginiá]

I know the traditional view of elections is now up in the air because of 2016.  Incumbency is still a good advantage, and if the economy continues to get better then that may be all is necessary for a shift back.  Also it's not like the Dems can hit him any harder than in 2016 unless he does/says even more that is stupid, which is likely.

Incumbency is still a big benefit, but on the other hand, Trump only got 46.1% of the vote. He hasn't really gotten much more popular since then, so he's extremely vulnerable if a relatively scandal-free and somewhat energizing candidate can come along and pick up the voters who voted for Clinton and those who voted for neither. Trump hasn't tried to reach out to any other voters, including those who didn't vote for him. This really does hurt him in reelection if his image is still poor. Trump doesn't have to lose a single voter of his to lose 2020 handily, given how low his support was already.

Trump's position is really precarious. Not only can he not afford to lose any support, but he actually needs to be gaining it, and with his approvals the way they are, that isn't happening. He has also energized the opposition as well - something that they weren't in 2016.

Just my 2 cents, anyhow.