Will Trump be a 1 term President?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's hard to tell. His reelection will be an uphill battle like Bush's was in 2004, but the hill will be steeper since Bush had somewhat of a positive approval rating.

[RFayette]

It depends on the economy and the outcome of Mueller's probe.  Yes, I know this is a bit of a cop-out, but those two things really will be the deciding factors I believe.

[dw93]

I lean towards yes. I've said it once and I'll say it till I'm blue in the face, a recession is going to hit between now and election day 2020 and Trump most likely isn't going to respond appropriately to it. On top of that, Trump has gotten little to nothing through a Congress that's controlled by his own party (especially compared to Obama in 2009, and even Bush in 2001 and Clinton in 1993), just imagine how much tougher it'll be for Trump to get Legislation through if the Democrats retake the House and split the Senate in 2018. Plus, you have the possibility of Mueller finding something really damaging against Trump (which means he might not even finish his term) and theirs the possibility of a quagmire of a war in North Korea or somewhere in the Middle East.

With that said, don't put it past the Democrats to not learn from the mistakes of 2016 and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[pbrower2a]

Here is a barrel full of icy water upon anyone who thinks that President Trump has a good chance or winning re-election:

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

This is a map of disapproval ratings by state based on the latest poling data, which is either the composite data from June to August 2017 (average, I assume is Jul 15) or subsequent statewide polling. You can argue about any state, but you cannot argue that President Trump will have a very difficult time getting re-elected.


...It is difficult enough for an incumbent to get low approval ratings to get to the point at which one has a chance of winning. Incumbents seeking re-election typically campaign. Campaigning allows one to more easily eat into the potential vote of the 'undecided' than to cut into high disapproval numbers.

I remember that President Obama once faced a disapproval rating of 53% in Ohio in 2011, and that he eventually won the state. But this said, he didn't have lots of numbers that high or higher in states that he won in 2008. Maybe Indiana, but that was about it. But it is far more than one state.
 
Disapproval ratings are far stickier downward than approval ratings are sticky. At this point, President Trump must change the narrative of the low regard that he now has. Giving a few crumbs to Democrats will be too little, and too late -- and with those, Republicans will be disappointed.  Big achievements? What can really change?

The political culture of America must change in favor of the right-wing Trump agenda if he is to be re-elected.   

[Santander]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

[History505]

At this point, who knows!

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush had a net positive approval rating. Trump hasn't since early January.

[Webnicz]

Here is a barrel full of icy water upon anyone who thinks that President Trump has a good chance or winning re-election:

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

This is a map of disapproval ratings by state based on the latest poling data, which is either the composite data from June to August 2017 (average, I assume is Jul 15) or subsequent statewide polling. You can argue about any state, but you cannot argue that President Trump will have a very difficult time getting re-elected.


...It is difficult enough for an incumbent to get low approval ratings to get to the point at which one has a chance of winning. Incumbents seeking re-election typically campaign. Campaigning allows one to more easily eat into the potential vote of the 'undecided' than to cut into high disapproval numbers.

I remember that President Obama once faced a disapproval rating of 53% in Ohio in 2011, and that he eventually won the state. But this said, he didn't have lots of numbers that high or higher in states that he won in 2008. Maybe Indiana, but that was about it. But it is far more than one state.
 
Disapproval ratings are far stickier downward than approval ratings are sticky. At this point, President Trump must change the narrative of the low regard that he now has. Giving a few crumbs to Democrats will be too little, and too late -- and with those, Republicans will be disappointed.  Big achievements? What can really change?

The political culture of America must change in favor of the right-wing Trump agenda if he is to be re-elected.   

Utah continues to shock me.

[Blackacre]

Yes, he will. He wont be impeached, but he's so ungodly unpopular that he'd have to pull off like 5 miracles to win re-election

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is a barrel full of icy water upon anyone who thinks that President Trump has a good chance or winning re-election:

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

This is a map of disapproval ratings by state based on the latest poling data, which is either the composite data from June to August 2017 (average, I assume is Jul 15) or subsequent statewide polling. You can argue about any state, but you cannot argue that President Trump will have a very difficult time getting re-elected.


...It is difficult enough for an incumbent to get low approval ratings to get to the point at which one has a chance of winning. Incumbents seeking re-election typically campaign. Campaigning allows one to more easily eat into the potential vote of the 'undecided' than to cut into high disapproval numbers.

I remember that President Obama once faced a disapproval rating of 53% in Ohio in 2011, and that he eventually won the state. But this said, he didn't have lots of numbers that high or higher in states that he won in 2008. Maybe Indiana, but that was about it. But it is far more than one state.
 
Disapproval ratings are far stickier downward than approval ratings are sticky. At this point, President Trump must change the narrative of the low regard that he now has. Giving a few crumbs to Democrats will be too little, and too late -- and with those, Republicans will be disappointed.  Big achievements? What can really change?

The political culture of America must change in favor of the right-wing Trump agenda if he is to be re-elected.   

Utah continues to shock me.

Trump's approval rating there is barely lower than his vote share. It was the lowest percentage he got in a state he won.

[MillennialModerate]

I'm not saying this out of bias, because as a moderate I've voted for Republicans before. (Not that I consider Trump a Republican or Democrat, I think of him as in it for himself) - but I don't think in the Post WW1 era there has ever been a President who is more unlikely to get a second term. I mean... are we serious, the people who defend him are like cult members (not conservatives, just the ones who blindly defend him in the face of facts). He is the most wildly incompetent and embarrassing leader this nation has literally ever had. His policies are incoherent, without logic. I think worst of all what will hurt him is the fact he is so blatantly in it for himself and himself alone. Some voters overlooked that in 2016 assuming that he would do good for the country in order to make himself come across well but with his accomplishments few and far between the average swing voter will have less tolerance for his self serving bullsh**t than they did in '16.


He won the electoral collage on the basis of three states that he won by a combine roughly 70,000 votes and that was with a major late October surprise in his favor, against an opponent with very high unfavorables ... the chances of him hitting that jackpot again are very slim.

The only reason people are giving him a shot in 2020 is cause they are trigger shy after the fluke upset of 2016.

But realistically he has the worst hopes of reelection any incumbent has EVER had. He's toast. It won't be a traditional landslide cause of how polarized the country is but it will be the closest thing to a landslide you can have nowadays.

[Tekken_Guy]

A Democrat is winning in 2020 regardless of whether Trump is the GOP nominee or not.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Maybe.

The power of Presidential incumbency is immense.  Presidents who have been defeated for re-election were low-key guys who appeared indifferent (Carter, Bush 43, Hoover) during a crisis.  Trump's not low-key, and he's not likely to do nothing in the event of an economic downturn.

Eh, people talk a lot about the power of the presidential incumbency, but most of our recent presidents have had 50%+ approval ratings on election day. My theory is that any president that is below 45% in approval by election day is in trouble, especially if there is a good candidate. People talk about how Bush was reelected, but Bush was around 52% approval rating on election day, and while John Kerry was a fine candidate, he wasn't anything exceptional like Obama in 08.

Another thing to note is that many more presidents in the 19th century lost reelection than the 20th century, but it's hard to compare presidents from so far back especially without any approval rating polls. However, the point still stands that the power of presidential incumbency could be overrated.

Part of the power of incumbency is the ability to generate the kind of buzz through Presidential actions that nudge that approval rating up.  Presidents have the ability to get a favorable jobs report out a day early, or get a bad one out of the way early (or delay it a bit until another event happens) to manipulate public opinion.  They have the power to spin events like Benghazi in order to manipulate narratives.  That's something someone out of power can't do, even when their party is in power. 

[The Mikado]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush had a ~49% average approval rating on election day and got 51% of the vote. Obama 2012 had a ~50% average approval rating on election day and got 51% of the vote. If Trump has an approval rating of ~40% on election day, he's not really comparable to those two. We'll have a better idea in a year or two if Trump is ever going to recover, but it's worth pointing out that Trump has never once breached 50% approval across his entire presidency, and he's through a sixth of it by now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm not saying this out of bias, because as a moderate I've voted for Republicans before. (Not that I consider Trump a Republican or Democrat, I think of him as in it for himself) - but I don't think in the Post WW1 era there has ever been a President who is more unlikely to get a second term. I mean... are we serious, the people who defend him are like cult members (not conservatives, just the ones who blindly defend him in the face of facts). He is the most wildly incompetent and embarrassing leader this nation has literally ever had. His policies are incoherent, without logic. I think worst of all what will hurt him is the fact he is so blatantly in it for himself and himself alone. Some voters overlooked that in 2016 assuming that he would do good for the country in order to make himself come across well but with his accomplishments few and far between the average swing voter will have less tolerance for his self serving bullsh**t than they did in '16.


He won the electoral collage on the basis of three states that he won by a combine roughly 70,000 votes and that was with a major late October surprise in his favor, against an opponent with very high unfavorables ... the chances of him hitting that jackpot again are very slim.

The only reason people are giving him a shot in 2020 is cause they are trigger shy after the fluke upset of 2016.

But realistically he has the worst hopes of reelection any incumbent has EVER had. He's toast. It won't be a traditional landslide cause of how polarized the country is but it will be the closest thing to a landslide you can have nowadays.

that was hoover

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump will finish his term, but step aside for Pence to run in 2020, who will win by a moderate margin over a far-left Democrat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

And, yet, Trump sits in the White House, while Hillary pounds salt.

Trump Denial continues.  I say this because folks just don't get it that Trump knows more about winning than anyone else.  He has more grit than any President I've seen in my lifetime, and he's not going to be run out of office.  He has the stones to tell his political enemies that if they're going to stick it to him, they're going to have to do it in full view of the voters.  He doesn't care about the ugliness of the victory; he cares about avoiding defeat, period.

Never underestimate Trump's power to get America to hate his opponent more than they hate him.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

And, yet, Trump sits in the White House, while Hillary pounds salt.

Trump Denial continues.  I say this because folks just don't get it that Trump knows more about winning than anyone else.  He has more grit than any President I've seen in my lifetime, and he's not going to be run out of office.  He has the stones to tell his political enemies that if they're going to stick it to him, they're going to have to do it in full view of the voters.  He doesn't care about the ugliness of the victory; he cares about avoiding defeat, period.

Never underestimate Trump's power to get America to hate his opponent more than they hate him.

Hillary's favorability ratings were hardly better than Trump.

I doubt Trump could get most other politicians down to Hillary's favorability rating. Hillary just is fundamentally unlikeable as a person to most people (technocratic, reminds you of a grandma without the sweet quality, awful in front of the cameras, uninspiring, shrill voice, seemed very power-hungry... you name it). I couldn't stand her as a person (in some ways, I even liked Trump more than her as a person... despite the vile sexism and racism) even though I liked about 60-70% of her positions and liked Bill. I also supported her over Obama in 08 and over Bernie in 16.

Those qualities may seem irrelevant when you're voting for President, but candidates personality traits change how you view them in so many ways. And vs a reality TV star, it amplifies the effect of how important personality is, as Trump was very vague with his actual positions. I couldn't bring myself to not hate her as a person. I don't see that with most other potential candidates.

Personality matters more than policy when campaigning, especially vs a reality TV star.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

And, yet, Trump sits in the White House, while Hillary pounds salt.

Trump Denial continues.  I say this because folks just don't get it that Trump knows more about winning than anyone else.  He has more grit than any President I've seen in my lifetime, and he's not going to be run out of office.  He has the stones to tell his political enemies that if they're going to stick it to him, they're going to have to do it in full view of the voters.  He doesn't care about the ugliness of the victory; he cares about avoiding defeat, period.

Never underestimate Trump's power to get America to hate his opponent more than they hate him.

Not saying he will lose but it's much easier to trash talk when you don't have a record to defend. He will have a lot to answer for if economy is not doing well and he does not come through on key promises and continues to fail on major legislation.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

And, yet, Trump sits in the White House, while Hillary pounds salt.

Trump Denial continues.  I say this because folks just don't get it that Trump knows more about winning than anyone else.  He has more grit than any President I've seen in my lifetime, and he's not going to be run out of office.  He has the stones to tell his political enemies that if they're going to stick it to him, they're going to have to do it in full view of the voters.  He doesn't care about the ugliness of the victory; he cares about avoiding defeat, period.

Never underestimate Trump's power to get America to hate his opponent more than they hate him.

Not saying he will lose but it's much easier to trash talk when you don't have a record to defend. He will have a lot Tom answer for if economy is not doing well and he does not come through on key promises and continues to fail on major legislation.

I predict that the actual Trump record in 2020 will be much better than the record of Trump's tweets, unscripted remarks, and needless feuds, but the latter hasn't proven to be an obstacle yet.

[AN63093]

At this point, I'd say he'd probably win re-election, although I don't think he'll win the PV (in fact, he could actually decline in the PV, depending on whether the Dems have hit a ceiling in CA or not).

I think a lot of the posts in this thread are mostly wishful thinking or rooted in emotions rather than dispassionate observation (which I am doing, since it does not particularly matter to me who wins in '20.. both parties are likely to advocate policies in my economic self interest so I have no dog in the hunt).

I'm not sure his approval ratings are terribly instructive... going into the election last year, Trump was a known quantity and relatively disliked.  He can be intensely disliked but if the Dems don't have a candidate that is relateable and affable, then people are going to go with the devil they know.  It's not simply enough to be the "anti-Trump."  If that was the case, then Clinton would be president right now.

So we'll see if the Democrats can put forth someone that really resonates enough with the people to take out an incumbent.  One thing to note is that because the US is so polarized right now, only a few states are relevant, and within those states, there are a handful of counties that are of critical importance.  So it doesn't really matter how much people in CA hate him- he can have a 0% approval rating there, and it's entirely irrelevant.

I think the Dems probably get back MI regardless (unless Detroit turnout is way down again this time around), but if you look at a place like PA.. Clinton beat Obama in turnout, pretty conclusively, in the Philly MSA but still lost the state.  So the Dems need someone that can appeal in places like Erie and Scranton, and I don't think most of those voters are going to be easily swayed by just beating the same drum over and over (i.e., Trump is evil, racist, sexist, Hitler, etc.).  I think the Dems are going to need a candidate that actually personally appeals to these people and I'm not sure they have it (yet).  They could.  We'll see.

The other option is the Dems just boost minority turnout and write off PA, and I think that would work for MI, but FL I'm not so sure.  Turnout was actually pretty good in FL and Clinton was beating out Obama in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, etc., so the Dems may have to actually flip some northern counties which leads us back to the same issue.

[politics_king]

Time will tell for Donald Trump, he's so erratic that it's a headache to just try and keep up with all the nonsense. I think people could end up getting Trump fatigue and if someone runs a 3rd party ticket against him, he's toast. It'll be a repeat of George H.W. Bush and his one-term. I always keep my eye on the Libertarian Party as more politicians, lobbyists and business interests have gotten involved in the party.

Plus the Koch Brothers seem to have some ties to the "Corporate" wing of the Libertarian Party, which almost doesn't even make sense. Seeing Bill Weld as VP and a comment of Mitt Romney saying he would support him at the top of the ticket says a lot.

The Libertarian Party could become a Center-Right alternative in 2020 depending on the nominee. The extreme wing of the Libertarian Party will become unglued but you have to give them credit, they have the political juice to get on all 50 states and a decent ground-game and inner-workings going on there.

I always thought if a 3rd Party ticket or "Independent" ticket ran against Trump, it would be a John Kasich/Brian Sandoval ticket.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For those of you thinking of comparing Bush and Trump in this thread, according to Gallup, Bush's approval rating on Election Day 2004 was 52% and even then a lose in Ohio would've booted him out of the White House.

[TrumpBritt24]

All depends on the Democratic nominee.