AL-Emerson: Moore +14 in primary, Jones trails by 4/3 against Moore/Strange

[The Other Castro]

Moore - 40%
Strange - 26%

Moore - 44%
Jones - 40%

Strange - 43%
Jones - 40%

http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/ECPS_AL_9.11_Press_Release.pdf

[NewYorkExpress]

About time we got some polling with Jones in it...but it looks too good to be true.

[I’m not Stu]

Unlikely to be a close race.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nice to see a GE poll, but it's crappy Emerson College, so basically worthless.

[Blackacre]

'bout time we got a poll with Jones! I'm more inclined to believe this than others here, in part because Strange and Moore both suck and in part because of my optimism and memory of Scott Brown

[Coraxion]

Great poll!

[windjammer]

'bout time we got a poll with Jones! I'm more inclined to believe this than others here, in part because Strange and Moore both suck and in part because of my optimism and memory of Scott Brown

Well, MA is an elastic state, definitely not Alabama

[Blackacre]

'bout time we got a poll with Jones! I'm more inclined to believe this than others here, in part because Strange and Moore both suck and in part because of my optimism and memory of Scott Brown

Well, MA is an elastic state, definitely not Alabama

This is true, but inelasticity doesn't mean the minority party stands no chance. PA is inelastic, and a change in turnout flipped it.

[TheSaint250]

Nice to see a GE poll, but it's crappy Emerson College, so basically worthless.

[GlobeSoc]

One the one hand it's garbage, and on the other hand it's republican biased. Don't know what to believe

[Young Conservative]

Jones could win if the Dems really go all in to turnout the black belt. Moore always underperforms polling

That wasn't the case in the first round of the primary.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jones could win if the Dems really go all in to turnout the black belt. Moore always underperforms polling

Dems have to win more than just the blackbelt + Birmingham to win the state. Mobile, Tuscaloosa, maybe even Huntsville would have to go for them. Plus they would have to cut into the republican margin in places like Baldwin County.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beautiful! If only it was correct.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Maybe i underestimated how sick American's are of the Republicans already.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maybe i underestimated how sick American's are of the Republicans already.

Let's hope that's true.

[Maxwell]

Jonesmentum!!!

[Xing]

Junk, but it would be a major accomplishment if Jones could come within single digits, which is possible (he won't win, though.)

[smoltchanov]

Probably - too good to Jones. 40% will be rather good result for him in extremely inelastic Alabama, 45% - excellent, win - miracle.

[McGovernForPrez]

'bout time we got a poll with Jones! I'm more inclined to believe this than others here, in part because Strange and Moore both suck and in part because of my optimism and memory of Scott Brown

Well, MA is an elastic state, definitely not Alabama

This is probably the biggest myth I've seen about Scott Brown's win. MA isn't elastic enough that a Republican could win in a GE year, which is why Elizabeth Warren won in 2012. In 2010 Scott Brown got less votes than Romney did in 2012, and still won by a healthy 5 point margin. Scott Brown won in 2010 because of extremely low turnout. If the MA gubernatorial race were held on a regular year we'd hardly ever elect Republican governors either.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It wouldn't surprise me if 40% is what Jones will get and the rest of the difference between 43-44 and 55-60 for Moore and Strange is supporters of either Moore or Strange saying right now "I don't know if I will vote for Moore/Strange if my guy loses", but 95%+ of those types will come around during a general election campaign.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It wouldn't surprise me if 40% is what Jones will get and the rest of the difference between 43-44 and 55-60 for Moore and Strange is supporters of either Moore or Strange saying right now "I don't know if I will vote for Moore/Strange if my guy loses", but 95%+ of those types will come around during a general election campaign.

60%-40% is what Generic R vs. Generic D is in Alabama. I think we can agree that Moore vs. Jones is anything but Generic R vs. Generic D.

[Pollster]

It wouldn't surprise me if 40% is what Jones will get and the rest of the difference between 43-44 and 55-60 for Moore and Strange is supporters of either Moore or Strange saying right now "I don't know if I will vote for Moore/Strange if my guy loses", but 95%+ of those types will come around during a general election campaign.

This is assuming they will turn out to vote.

[Pollster]

The primary looks potentially divisive enough to depress GOP turnout significantly. I don't think Strange endorsing Jones is out of the question either - establishment GOP may consider a temporarily Democratic Alabama Senate seat less detrimental to the party long-term than a Senator Roy Moore.

[Heisenberg]

Also, this poll was before Executiongate (or whatever you want to call that horrible gaffe).

[Lachi]

I don't expect this race to be in double figures for much longer.