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| | | |-+  Dan Jones & Associates: Hatch trails Jenny Wilson by 11
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Author Topic: Dan Jones & Associates: Hatch trails Jenny Wilson by 11  (Read 756 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« on: September 11, 2017, 03:56:29 pm »
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http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/14293-poll-romney-wins-matchup-and-likely-will-run-if-hatch-doesn-t

45% Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson
34% Sen. Orrin Hatch

FYI, 538 gives Dan Jones a C+.

All I'll say is that this is consistent with what other recent polls have implied: that Orrin Hatch is unpopular. I'll let you take this poll as you will.
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FL-GOV - Gwen Graham
GA-GOV - Stacey Evans
MD-GOV - Kevin Kamenetz
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kyc0705
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2017, 04:16:37 pm »
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Orrin Hatch doesn't have a core constituency. He's chronically unpopular, and has managed to become a toxic Republican in the reddest state in the country. If he runs for a 396 gazillionth term, he deserves to lose.
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2017, 04:33:46 pm »
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Hatch sucks. Republicans should be worried here if he runs for re-election in an anti-Trump midterm.

Romney would be able to just sleep his way to victory.
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2017, 04:35:40 pm »
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No matter who wins the GOP nomination, it's Safe R...even if Democrats do persuade Matheson to run.

I would love to see Mitt Romney or Gary Herbert run here, though.
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Religious nuts like Roy Moore should face the biblical punishments for blasphemy, as what they say and do is a perversion of their God's will.
Castro
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2017, 04:43:50 pm »
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Useless poll, they didn't include party affiliations in their polling questions.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2017, 05:48:41 pm »
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GREAT poll!
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Senate Endorsements
AL: Doug Jones
NV: Jacky Rosen
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
TX: Beto O'Rourke
UT: Jim Matheson
MO: Claire McCaskill
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WI: Tammy Baldwin
OH: Sherrod Brown
MI: Debbie Stabenow
FL: Bill Nelson
ME: Angus King
VA: Tim Kaine
PA: Bob Casey
Fudotei
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2017, 07:19:33 pm »
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Issues with not identifying party (Jenny Wilson is a literallywho-tier name) but otherwise yeah, matches consensus. Hatch is in trouble if he runs again, he shouldn't, and Romney has all incentive to go for a Humphrey-style Senate seat after Sen. Hatch retires.
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2017, 07:37:15 pm »
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Hatch is finished
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2017, 07:39:38 pm »
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If hatch is the nominee this likely switches.
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Acting Southern Delegate The Saint
TheSaint250
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2017, 07:48:27 pm »
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Lol at the people taking this seriously.

And I assume Sanders would have beaten Trump in Utah as well?
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2017, 07:57:11 pm »
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Jim Matheson should run.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2017, 07:59:26 pm »
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Lol at the people taking this seriously.

And I assume Sanders would have beaten Trump in Utah as well?
Don't lecture me about Utah politics, Mr. L-NM.
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Senate Endorsements
AL: Doug Jones
NV: Jacky Rosen
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
TX: Beto O'Rourke
UT: Jim Matheson
MO: Claire McCaskill
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WI: Tammy Baldwin
OH: Sherrod Brown
MI: Debbie Stabenow
FL: Bill Nelson
ME: Angus King
VA: Tim Kaine
PA: Bob Casey
Acting Southern Delegate The Saint
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2017, 08:56:48 pm »
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Lol at the people taking this seriously.

And I assume Sanders would have beaten Trump in Utah as well?
Don't lecture me about Utah politics, Mr. L-NM.
So you know everything there is to know about Utah?

And by the way the NM thing is a joke.
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2017, 08:58:01 pm »
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Wow, I would actually vote for Gary Johnson over Coraxion, it's just that bad folks.
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I'm a Southern Blue-Dog Democrat... one of the few still left...

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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2017, 09:03:14 pm »
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Let's wait for confirmation
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2017, 09:10:11 pm »
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Jenny Wilson, as a Councilwoman at large for the entire County of Salt Lake, really isn't a nobody. She represents 1/3 of Utah as is.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2017, 09:49:47 pm »
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Not that this has any significance, but this is the Utah senate seat that has not elected back-to-back senators from the same party since 1940. That has only happened twice in the seat's history.
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AZ-SEN - Kyrsten Sinema
FL-SEN - Bill Nelson
FL-GOV - Gwen Graham
GA-GOV - Stacey Evans
MD-GOV - Kevin Kamenetz
NV-SEN - Jacky Rosen
NJ-GOV - Phil Murphy
NM-GOV - Michelle Lujan Grisham
OH-SEN - Sherrod Brown
VA-GOV - Ralph Northam
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WI-GOV - Kathleen Vinehout
Kamala
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2017, 09:51:42 pm »
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I wonder what Matheson/Hatch numbers are.
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2017, 10:29:01 pm »
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Utah is not going to elect a Democrat.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2017, 06:42:52 am »
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Utah is not going to elect a Democrat.
If Hatch is the GOP nominee, it might.
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Senate Endorsements
AL: Doug Jones
NV: Jacky Rosen
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
TX: Beto O'Rourke
UT: Jim Matheson
MO: Claire McCaskill
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WI: Tammy Baldwin
OH: Sherrod Brown
MI: Debbie Stabenow
FL: Bill Nelson
ME: Angus King
VA: Tim Kaine
PA: Bob Casey
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2017, 06:55:11 am »
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Utah is not going to elect a Democrat.
If Hatch is the GOP nominee, it might.

lol Utah is one of those states that would elect Satan (R) over Jesus (D) in double digits. Clearly you know more about your state than I, but I just don't see the Mormons there electing a Democrat statewide. Dems shouldn't waste money here; it could be the Kansas of 2014 if they do.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2017, 02:34:47 pm »
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Utah is not going to elect a Democrat.
If Hatch is the GOP nominee, it might.

lol Utah is one of those states that would elect Satan (R) over Jesus (D) in double digits. Clearly you know more about your state than I, but I just don't see the Mormons there electing a Democrat statewide. Dems shouldn't waste money here; it could be the Kansas of 2014 if they do.
I suppose if state Democrats nominate a Mormon Democrat who can distance him/herself from the national party brand, they could be competitive statewide. It would still depend on the GOP nominee though.
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Progressive. Pragmatist. Strongly favors bringing back the big-tent.
Endorsements
AZ-SEN - Kyrsten Sinema
FL-SEN - Bill Nelson
FL-GOV - Gwen Graham
GA-GOV - Stacey Evans
MD-GOV - Kevin Kamenetz
NV-SEN - Jacky Rosen
NJ-GOV - Phil Murphy
NM-GOV - Michelle Lujan Grisham
OH-SEN - Sherrod Brown
VA-GOV - Ralph Northam
WI-SEN - Tammy Baldwin
WI-GOV - Kathleen Vinehout
Jimmie
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2017, 03:25:05 pm »
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To be honest.. if the match up ends up with Orrin Hatch as the Republican nominee Democrats may be smart to spend money on this race.

No other year may align so perfect for Democrats to win a Senate Seat from Utah. Sure Jenny Wilson may end up as Utah's Mark Begich but a win for one term is a win.

And to be honest if someone like Claire McCaskill or Sherrod Brown begin to really falter in polls I would advise national Democrats to put that money in the Utah Senate Race if Jenny Wilson is still polling well against Hatch. Considering the dense media market it would be money well spent.

There are basically three potential big victories for Utah Democrats in the coming years if all goes well.

1) Most likely would be picking up a congressional seat in 2022. If independent redistricting passes the ballot next year it is almost certain a Lean Democratic seat will be created in Utah. In such a small state a single congressional race is a huge prize.

2) Second most plausible is an open gubernatoral contest in 2020. Utah does not have term limits for Governor but Gary Herbert is unlikely to run for re-election. Trump is unlikely to replicate Republican margins from 2004, 2008 and 2012 the open seat could be a feasible prize.

3) The Senate Contest next year is only possible if Hatch is the Republican nominee and Romney does NOT run.

Jim Matheson must be kicking himself hard for becoming a lobbyist!
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 03:28:22 pm by Jimmie »Logged

Gustaf
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2017, 08:05:26 am »
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I don't have much faith in Dan Jones, but still. Hatch is running 49 points behind Romney. That's less than Romney's victory margin against Obama.
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2017, 01:41:40 pm »
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Junk poll because of no party labels, but it does prove that there is discontent with Hatch which we already knew.
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