Chances of all Clinton states voting Dem again in 2020?

[Tekken_Guy]

Thread title says it all.

[°Leprechaun]

I would say at least 60%.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm going to go with at least 90%. The Dems are already at least 65-70% favored to win in 2020 (and can't see any Clinton states going against the grain if they win), and they could still lose and keep every Clinton state.

[Rookie Yinzer]

95%

I believe how Hillary did in close states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, etc were the absolute floor for the Dems. She was not a palatable candidate for the voters who disliked both her and Trump, and she had clear enthusiasm gaps from Obama 2012 voters in Democratic areas. The next Dem candidate should be able to improve on her numbers.

[Blackacre]

90%. But that's because I think Dems are going to win the 2020 election by a large margin. If it's close, or if the GOP wins again, some states are going to flip.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

100%

[cvparty]

100%

basically, given the Democratic nominee isn't godawful

[The Mikado]

It'd be hard for Trump to win New Hampshire now that he's saying it's a drug-filled den, and that's probably the most vulnerable Dem state.

[MAINEiac4434]

100%

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I would say at least 60%.

I'll agree with this.

I think the chance of the Democrats carrying the same number of states in 2020 is nearly 100%.  The GOP might recapture NV, VA, and CO, but I think Dems would recapture WI, MI, and even PA.

[°Leprechaun]

WI before PA?

It's possible, but they are about equal, I think.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wisconsin is honestly the single Trump state most likely to flip back to Democrats in 2020.

Michigan is a somewhat distant second, closely followed by Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

[TDAS04]

I'd say about 80-90%.

[UncleSam]

It is not 90%+ against an incumbent president lol, that's silly.

NH, MN, VA, NV, CO, and ME were all within five points, and if Trump does as well in 2020 as he did in 2016 odds are he captures one of those states.

I'd say the odds of that are about 40% doing as well and 75% of that winning one of those states.

Doing some basic math that makes the odds about 70% that Dems hold all the Clinton states.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It is not 90%+ against an incumbent president lol, that's silly.

NH, MN, VA, NV, CO, and ME were all within five points, and if Trump does as well in 2020 as he did in 2016 odds are he captures one of those states.

I'd say the odds of that are about 40% doing as well and 75% of that winning one of those states.

Doing some basic math that makes the odds about 70% that Dems hold all the Clinton states.

Trump is not going to win re-election unless a miracle happens.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It is not 90%+ against an incumbent president lol, that's silly.

NH, MN, VA, NV, CO, and ME were all within five points, and if Trump does as well in 2020 as he did in 2016 odds are he captures one of those states.

I'd say the odds of that are about 40% doing as well and 75% of that winning one of those states.

Doing some basic math that makes the odds about 70% that Dems hold all the Clinton states.

Those states were close because of increased third party vote and Clinton defection. Trump didn't do anything amazing in these states compared to Romney. He is not winning any of them in 2020.

[Inmate Trump]

95-100%

Unless Russia fudges things up again, then who knows.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

100%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

100%

[NewYorkExpress]

If Pence or Trump is the nominee... 99% (the 1% is the possibility that Russia steps in again to support Trump)

If it's some other Republican like Amash or Paul (they're the only two that I think will actually run against Trump...Cruz for instance isn't an idiot), 75, as, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada all could flip, but in return, Democrats could flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and possibly even North Carolina and Georgia depending on the nominee.

[Keep cool-idge]

The fact is that it is way to early to say mainly because one we have a governors race this year
Then the midterms
Then 2019 governors
Then the actual election a lot can change trump for all we know could get approval ratings of 10% or 90% we don't know those elections will give us a clue though

[Xing]

50-60%, since 2020 is a long way off, and states like MN and NH will at least be competitive.

[MillennialModerate]

The 2007 Patriots lost a football game, Donald Trump became President....

These things have made me never say never.

But it's the closest that to 100% you can find, so I'll say 98%

[pbrower2a]

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

If it's Hillary Clinton... Trump's barest losses were New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada. I look at the '62' in Minnesota and the '64' in New Hampshire, and his best chance is Nevada... and not a good one as his disapproval there is at '53'. That's his only chance of winning a state that he lost in 2016. One chance in ten, roughly -- and note that there are bigger prizes for a Democratic nominee (Georgia, Ohio, Arizona, and Florida) with similar disapproval ratings.

If it's Bill Clinton... Kentucky. And Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. 

[Figueira]

Around 75%.