Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 23, 2017, 11:54:29 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results
| | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: TexasGurl, Torie)
| | | |-+  What cities did Hillary win in Oklahoma?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: What cities did Hillary win in Oklahoma?  (Read 693 times)
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11283
Nepal


View Profile
« on: September 12, 2017, 03:26:45 pm »
Ignore

Similar to this thread.

Hillary outperformed Obama in urban Oklahoma, so she might have won a couple.  I'm guessing she carried Norman, but I'm not sure.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 03:38:54 pm by TDAS04 »Logged

Economic:  -2.71
Social:  -5.74
Representative VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2337
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2017, 08:19:01 pm »
Ignore

She definitely won Norman. Perhaps Stillwater or OKC but I doubt.

Looks like she also won Boley, Taft, and a few more majority Black towns.

« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 08:21:09 pm by Representative VPH »Logged

KS-GOV: Josh Svaty
MI-GOV: Abdul El-Sayed
OH-GOV: Betty Sutton
TN-GOV: Craig Fitzhugh
IL-03: Dan Lipinski
MI-1: Matt Morgan
Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11877
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2017, 12:21:06 am »
Ignore

This may help.
Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
Reclaiming My Time
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2716
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2017, 06:33:50 am »
Ignore


Great link, thanks! Smiley

Wow, those >90% precincts in Oklahoma City are surprising. I'm guessing they're heavily black?
Logged
Blairite
Full Member
***
Posts: 126
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2017, 12:55:01 pm »
Ignore

She definitely won Norman. Perhaps Stillwater or OKC but I doubt.
OKC was the biggest city in the country that Trump won.
Logged

NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2017, 01:16:29 am »
Ignore

She definitely won Norman. Perhaps Stillwater or OKC but I doubt.
OKC was the biggest city in the country that Trump won.

Do we have a definitive source on this?

I've heard a few people repeat this on Atlas, but not yet seen anyone that has actually run the precinct numbers on OKC for the 16 Pres GE.

Logged

nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9564
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2017, 02:40:02 pm »
Ignore

She definitely won Norman. Perhaps Stillwater or OKC but I doubt.
OKC was the biggest city in the country that Trump won.

Do we have a definitive source on this?

I've heard a few people repeat this on Atlas, but not yet seen anyone that has actually run the precinct numbers on OKC for the 16 Pres GE.



This site: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/the-largest-city-to-vote-for-donald-trump/

that someone posted on the largest cities by state to vote for Trump thread, shows the numbers for Jacksonville, FL and Fort Worth, and approximates OKC by saying "over 40,000 votes".

They also claim that Mesa, AZ is confirmed for Trump, but they don't give numbers and just say that non-Phoenix Maricopa was heavily Repub, but it might be worth checking as Mesa has a lot of Mormons who may have defected to McMullin.
Logged



"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2017, 05:41:34 pm »
Ignore

She definitely won Norman. Perhaps Stillwater or OKC but I doubt.
OKC was the biggest city in the country that Trump won.

Do we have a definitive source on this?

I've heard a few people repeat this on Atlas, but not yet seen anyone that has actually run the precinct numbers on OKC for the 16 Pres GE.



This site: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/the-largest-city-to-vote-for-donald-trump/

that someone posted on the largest cities by state to vote for Trump thread, shows the numbers for Jacksonville, FL and Fort Worth, and approximates OKC by saying "over 40,000 votes".

They also claim that Mesa, AZ is confirmed for Trump, but they don't give numbers and just say that non-Phoenix Maricopa was heavily Repub, but it might be worth checking as Mesa has a lot of Mormons who may have defected to McMullin.

TY for the link....

I believe this is likely the result of our own resident precinct mapping guru RI, although he is not attributed in the DDHQ article.

I have 100% confidence in RI when it comes to anything involving consolidating precinct level election data, and rolling it up to Municipal level results.

He's not only one of the best "Effort Posters" on Atlas. but additionally perhaps the best current poster on Atlas when it comes to consolidating Federal Election data into "bite size" data packages.

So, definitely I don't feel the need to double-check his confirmed numbers (Although am curious about the exact returns in Mesa), but the need to parse cities definitely jump out in my book as places to double-check and roll precinct numbers and code by municipality....

I was a bit shocked to see that HRC apparently won Forth Worth by a 20% Margin, after spending two or three hours going through and coding precincts in Excel against '15 City election precincts for Tarrant County (Where the vast majority of Fort Worth resides despite being located within 3-4 different counties in Tejas...

So, the need to parse  cities are definitely worthy of further examination, and at this point I'm not convinced of who won OKC w/o going and pulling up precinct level data myself for Oklahoma County, pulling up precinct maps, coding precincts by municipality, etc.... It's likely a three hour endeavor, since there are a ton of precincts in Oklahoma County, and it took me about 1 1/2-2 hours apiece just to pull up data for Fargo and Sioux City (Sigh--- tons of precincts).

At this point Oklahoma is a possible, but not yet confirmed, unless there is a better data source from someone who has spent a detailed amount of time to crunch numbers. Smiley
Logged

Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11877
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 08:00:20 am »
Ignore

It might be worth taking a closer look at OKC, since precise numbers weren't posted.

However, if you take a look at DRA and include the precincts predominantly in OKC from 2008 (precinct boundaries don't align perfectly with municipal boundaries), McCain won the city (including the portions of the city in Canadian County) by 13. Oklahoma County was won by McCain by 17 points.

Compared to 2016, the county swung to Clinton by 7 points (Trump +10). A uniform swing in OKC would put the city at Trump +6, but the trends we saw in 2016 generally align more with suburban areas swinging to Clinton more than urban areas - of course, this definition is largely useless in OKC.

If anybody wants to take the time to figure out the closest discernible answer, then here's some help: I've isolated the precincts that are predominantly in OKC city limits in Oklahoma/Canadian Counties (and blotted out the rest; in green). If someone has the patience, they could just add up the precinct-by-precincts totals for each candidate with the link I posted above and get the final numbers:

Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 12:17:54 am »
Ignore

It might be worth taking a closer look at OKC, since precise numbers weren't posted.

However, if you take a look at DRA and include the precincts predominantly in OKC from 2008 (precinct boundaries don't align perfectly with municipal boundaries), McCain won the city (including the portions of the city in Canadian County) by 13. Oklahoma County was won by McCain by 17 points.

Compared to 2016, the county swung to Clinton by 7 points (Trump +10). A uniform swing in OKC would put the city at Trump +6, but the trends we saw in 2016 generally align more with suburban areas swinging to Clinton more than urban areas - of course, this definition is largely useless in OKC.

If anybody wants to take the time to figure out the closest discernible answer, then here's some help: I've isolated the precincts that are predominantly in OKC city limits in Oklahoma/Canadian Counties (and blotted out the rest; in green). If someone has the patience, they could just add up the precinct-by-precincts totals for each candidate with the link I posted above and get the final numbers:



Thanks Fmr Pres. Griffin--- once again yet another solid post!

I actually do have precinct level data for Oklahoma '16 GE PRES in an Excel format, and did a little bit of work on both Oklahoma and Canadian Counties (Mainly focused on wealthier precincts) as part of a few other threads on the Forum...

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.msg5747382#msg5747382

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5747469#msg5747469

So we know the data is easily available and accessible for the '16 Pres GE....

Obviously split-precincts are not unusual in many places, but there are work-arounds for that unless elections are extremely close, since one can easily model a % of vote by Party and generally these precincts account for a fairly small % of the TV within Cities....

Based upon my previous work (And honestly I don't recall all of the exact data that I examined in the two threads linked above in Canadian and Oklahoma County) but it didn't appear that there were significant precinct changes between '12 and '16. In my mind this is a much bigger issues than split-precincts when trying to run numbers.

Key variable here, and where my first point of analysis would be, is which precincts in Canadian and Oklahoma County are located partially or fully within City Limits? Naturally, the place to start would be Municipal elections, especially US Mayoral elections, so we can most easily code precincts by municipality into Excel....

Which precincts in Canadian and Oklahoma County voted for OKC Mayor in '14, and are these results available so it's an easier Ctrl C&P scene against Excel precinct data?

Since precincts apparently didn't change significantly between '12 and '16, in theory we should be able to pull up OKC election results by precincts, so we can easily code the data by municipality (And then if we get to an election within the "margin of error" for outstanding split-precincts we can do some statistical modelling to carve up the 2.5% "change".

I haven't had a chance to look at that yet, since unfortunately Oklahoma centralizes election data rather than making it easily accessible via local county websites (Pros and Cons to that model of statewide election reporting IMHO), one of the cons is making it harder to easily identify municipal precinct boundaries....

Still, since I have essentially a 13 Hr workday/Commute scene going on, I won' be able to take a look at OKC further until this weekend, but it is notable, that there are actually some major Upper Middle-Class precincts that swung heavily towards HRC within the City of Oklahoma City itself (Which like many other places in the "Western Midwest" actually incorporates an extremely large % of the Metro area Population).

Where are our Oklahoma volunteers to take on this project in this hour of need?     Sad



Logged

Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11877
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: Today at 12:51:07 am »
Ignore

^^^ Good idea about the spreadsheet! So I went ahead and did it:

Here's the OKC 2016 spreadsheet data. I've put two tabs there (one for 2014 Mayor - precinct IDs/county only - and one for 2016 with all of that + the election results).

Now, of course I am not going to try to split precincts here in the cases where only partial precincts fall into the city. However, look at what these numbers are showing:

OKC 2016 Total:
Trump97,08552.09%+11.48
Clinton75,68640.61%
Johnson13,6167.31%

Clinton lost Oklahoma County by 10.5, but ended up losing the city as a whole by one point more?!



Goes to show you how powerful Canadian County is in the results:

OKC (Canadian County only) 2016 Total:
Trump22,07271.63%+50.03
Clinton6,65421.60%
Johnson2,0866.77%



OKC (Oklahoma County only) 2016 Total:
Trump75,01348.22%+3.85
Clinton69,03244.37%
Johnson11,5307.41%
Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: Today at 03:55:38 am »
Ignore

^^^ Good idea about the spreadsheet! So I went ahead and did it:

Here's the OKC 2016 spreadsheet data. I've put two tabs there (one for 2014 Mayor - precinct IDs/county only - and one for 2016 with all of that + the election results).

Now, of course I am not going to try to split precincts here in the cases where only partial precincts fall into the city. However, look at what these numbers are showing:

OKC 2016 Total:
Trump97,08552.09%+11.48
Clinton75,68640.61%
Johnson13,6167.31%

Clinton lost Oklahoma County by 10.5, but ended up losing the city as a whole by one point more?!



Goes to show you how powerful Canadian County is in the results:

OKC (Canadian County only) 2016 Total:
Trump22,07271.63%+50.03
Clinton6,65421.60%
Johnson2,0866.77%



OKC (Oklahoma County only) 2016 Total:
Trump75,01348.22%+3.85
Clinton69,03244.37%
Johnson11,5307.41%

Wow!!!

Massive effort post spending a ton of time to run all of these numbers!

The Oklahoma City results in Oklahoma County compared to Canadian County stand out immediately even from a basic Poly-Sci compare & contrast model.

It is also interesting that your data suggests that precincts located outside of OKC tended to vote slightly more Democratic than the County at large.... Sure these numbers most likely are minor variances, but still it doesn't really fit the CW and patterns  of '16 PRES GE results.

So while DDHQ said they needed to "parse numbers" on OKC you were able to pull the real time data using the technique that I have run in the past, and definitely demonstrate that there was a +11% R win in OKC, even though the Oklahoma County results were only +4% R.

Pretty cool work Fmr Pres Griffin, once again a top-tier poster on Atlas!
« Last Edit: Today at 07:51:35 pm by NOVA Green »Logged

Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11877
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: Today at 05:23:05 am »
Ignore

The Oklahoma City results in Oklahoma County compared to Canadian County stand out immediately even from a basic Poly-Sci compare & contrast model.

It is also interesting that your data suggests that precincts located outside of OKC tended to vote slightly more Democratic than the County at large.... Sure these numbers most likely are minor variances, but still it doesn't really fit the CW and patterns  of '16 PRES GE results.

I was going to point out that this broader observation broke my brain for a second. I was sitting there wondering "how can the non-OKC Oklahoma County precincts be more Democratic than the city proper?!", since Trump won the city by more than he won Oklahoma County. Of course, even though I knew Canadian County was skewing the results, it took me a minute to put it all together.

Based on the data, it would appear that non-OKC Oklahoma County voted for Trump by 19 (56-37), and OKC Oklahoma County voted for Trump by 4 (48-44), giving us the Trump win of 10.5 points countywide (52-41).

I thought the most interesting part was how closely OKC Canadian County resembled the remainder of Canadian County; the OKC portion was only about 1 point more Democratic than Canadian County as a whole. That just goes to show you how OKC isn't a real city by many standards (especially the portions in Canadian County). Even though it's only about 1/6 of the city's voters, they make the difference between a swing city and a pretty solidly-Republican one.
« Last Edit: Today at 05:49:02 am by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: Today at 08:10:34 pm »
Ignore

The Oklahoma City results in Oklahoma County compared to Canadian County stand out immediately even from a basic Poly-Sci compare & contrast model.

It is also interesting that your data suggests that precincts located outside of OKC tended to vote slightly more Democratic than the County at large.... Sure these numbers most likely are minor variances, but still it doesn't really fit the CW and patterns  of '16 PRES GE results.

I was going to point out that this broader observation broke my brain for a second. I was sitting there wondering "how can the non-OKC Oklahoma County precincts be more Democratic than the city proper?!", since Trump won the city by more than he won Oklahoma County. Of course, even though I knew Canadian County was skewing the results, it took me a minute to put it all together.

Based on the data, it would appear that non-OKC Oklahoma County voted for Trump by 19 (56-37), and OKC Oklahoma County voted for Trump by 4 (48-44), giving us the Trump win of 10.5 points countywide (52-41).

I thought the most interesting part was how closely OKC Canadian County resembled the remainder of Canadian County; the OKC portion was only about 1 point more Democratic than Canadian County as a whole. That just goes to show you how OKC isn't a real city by many standards (especially the portions in Canadian County). Even though it's only about 1/6 of the city's voters, they make the difference between a swing city and a pretty solidly-Republican one.

It is also interesting to note, that some of the fastest growing cities by % stretch along the Great Plains region starting with Metro DFW in Texas, rolling through Oklahoma City and Tulsa, into Metro Kansas City, and ending roughly around Omaha....

The swings among more affluent and educated voters in Metro DFW, OKC,  and KC actually tend to be fairly similar to the phenomenon observed elsewhere in the US, while Metro Omaha definitely appears to be the exception (Despite the whole hype on Atlas about Obama winning that CD in NE in '16).

Still, it makes one wonder to what extent this phenomenon in '16 in these Metro areas is an exception to the norm because of the unique nature of the Trump campaign, or potentially a more sustained and longer term trend with the dramatic influx of new voters to these places, combined with natural demographic changes from Millennial voters who grew up in these communities with very different political attitudes from their parents and grandparents Generation.

So here's a link to a post that I made on another thread running some numbers on wealthier precincts in Canadian and Oklahoma Counties....

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5747469#msg5747469
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines