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| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2017-2018 Attorneys General Predictions
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Author Topic: 2017-2018 Attorneys General Predictions  (Read 259 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« on: September 12, 2017, 05:36:43 pm »
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For anyone who cares, here's what I think:



AL - Steve Marshall is running for a full term, but things could get interesting in the primary since he was appointed by Bentley. Safe R
AZ - Mark Brnovich is running for reelection. January Contreras seems to be a credible candidate though. Likely R
AR - Leslie Rutledge is running for reelection. Nothing interesting here. Safe R
CA - Whether Becerra runs for reelection or not, Safe D
CO - Coffman hasn't announced whether she'll run for reelection, but either way, this looks like it'll be a tough position to hold. Tossup
CT - George Jetson Jepsen is running for reelection. Rs haven't won this seat since 1954. Safe D
DE - Matt Denn is not running for reelection. While it might look like an easy D hold, it could end up being a dark horse for Republicans. Likely D
FL - An open seat. The infamous FL D party appears to be largely ignoring it though. Leans R
GA - This is a pseudo-open seat, so it could potentially be competitive, especially if John Barrow runs. Likely R
ID - Moving on. Safe R
IL - The name Madigan is on the ballot, but voters seem to know the difference between the Attorney General and her stepfather. Safe D
IA - Ds have held this position since 1979, and if Tom Miller retires, they may not be able to keep it, unless 2016 was a one-off and not the new normal for Iowa. Leans D
KS - Depending on how widespread anti-Brownback backlash is, this position may be a dark horse for Democrats; they held it as recently as from 2006 to 2010.
MD - Frosh easily won in 2014 even as Hogan was winning. Safe D
MA - Safe D
MI - An open seat. No one has declared yet, but it should be a competitive race. Tossup
MN - Swanson hasn't announced her plans for 2018 yet, but whether she retires or not, Ds should be at least slightly favored to hold the position. Likely D
NE - Safe R
NV - See Colorado. Ds have a decent bench here. Tossup
NM - Balderas isn't going anywhere. Safe D
NY - Prediction: Schneiderman runs for reelection. Safe D
ND - Safe R
OH - DeWine is term-limited and both sides appear to have strong candidates. Tossup
OK - Safe R
RI - Safe D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TX - Safe R
VA - If Mark Herring loses, it'll be because he was running against a guy named John Adams. In all seriousness, I think this will depend on the results of the Governor's race. Leans D
WI - Again, this will probably depend on how the Governor's race turns out. Schimel is running for reelection, and Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor, has declared for the D nomination, and seems like a serious candidate. Leans R
Logged

Progressive. Pragmatist. Strongly favors bringing back the big-tent.
Endorsements
AZ-SEN - Kyrsten Sinema
FL-SEN - Bill Nelson
FL-GOV - Gwen Graham
GA-GOV - Stacey Evans
MD-GOV - Kevin Kamenetz
NV-SEN - Jacky Rosen
NJ-GOV - Phil Murphy
NM-GOV - Michelle Lujan Grisham
OH-SEN - Sherrod Brown
VA-GOV - Ralph Northam
WI-SEN - Tammy Baldwin
WI-GOV - Kathleen Vinehout
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