Bernie Sanders' path to the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination

[AtorBoltox]

Bernie derangement syndrome is a serious medical condition.

[GoTfan]

If Manchin, and anti-Planned Parenthood, anti-EPA ends up by some miracle becoming Sanders's bigges opponent, I'm almost certain Bernie wins.

[Mr. Morden]

He's the presumptive nominee based off polling

If you really take current polling seriously as a basis for predicting the outcome of the 2020 primaries, then the presumptive outcome is a contested convention. 

[Canis]

He's the presumptive nominee based off polling

If you really take current polling seriously as a basis for predicting the outcome of the 2020 primaries, then the presumptive outcome is a contested convention. 

I don't I was just saying at the moment it looks like if sanders won he would have a pretty easy path to the nomination but a lot could be changed

[Lord Admirale]

Bernie derangement syndrome is a serious medical condition.

Bernie circle-jerking is a bizarre sexual disorder

[Figueira]

His path: maintaining his current polling average and win a plurality against a divided field. Then convince the superdelegates that voting for anyone else would unnecessarily divide the party.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I think the CA primary being moved forward in the primary calendar would be the nail in the coffin for Sanders in a Harris-Sanders matchup. I mean, with these changes, I think Biden is really the only candidate with a >50% chance of beating Harris in the primary.

I also don't think Sanders can afford for Biden to run, because Biden is one of few who could seriously detract from Sanders' margins among white voters in the Plains and Mountain West while simultaneously still winning by massive margins in the South.

The perfect case scenario for Sanders would be a very crowded primary where he is far and away the most progressive candidate, and the other candidates divide the minority vote for the first four or five primaries so he performs better and gains momentum (i.e. winning NV/CA and coming somewhat close in SC). I just don't see how he beats someone like Harris or Biden 1-on-1, as they all do much much better among black and southern voters. Without making some extraordinary gains somewhere else, Sanders can't afford to do as poorly on the TX/LA/MS/AL/GA/FL/SC/NC/VA/MD/DE line as he did in 2016. I think Sanders might be able to squeak out wins against Booker or Gillibrand 1-on-1, but that's a big maybe.

[Mr. Morden]

He's the presumptive nominee based off polling

If you really take current polling seriously as a basis for predicting the outcome of the 2020 primaries, then the presumptive outcome is a contested convention. 

I don't I was just saying at the moment it looks like if sanders won he would have a pretty easy path to the nomination but a lot could be changed

"If he won he would have a pretty easy path to the nomination"?  That sentence doesn't parse.  You're saying that if he wins the nomination, then he'd win the nomination?  That's a tautology.

As for the "current polling numbers"....first of all, we have virtually nothing in the way of current polling for the 2020 primaries.  Our polls come from garbage tier pollsters like Zogby, and then we have an Iowa poll from O'Malley's PAC.  Not a lot to go on, even if you thought the polls right now were predictive of anything.

But OK, let's pretend that the national polls we have so far are actually good.  In that case, I don't find Sanders's numbers to be all that impressive.  He's better known than the rest of the field except Biden, but he's only in the 20-30% range on support?  And yet he's treated like the de facto leader of the party by many.  If you were to base your predictions on polling alone, then he seems like an extremely vulnerable "frontrunner", with a "lead" akin to Christie's lead in late 2013:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=183151.0

(I don't base my predictions on current polling, since I think the current polling is garbage.  I just think that if you did, then it's not all rosy for Sanders.)

[AtorBoltox]

Why are people saying Harris would easily heat Sanders? She's basically a complete unknown to
 most Americans, and winning the name recognition battle is crucial to winning the race.

[YE]

Instead of re-figthing the primary, I will answer the question.

Win Iowa
Win NH
Preferably win Nevada
Hope the black vote gets split up
Win most of the northern states

[Holmes]

Yeah, basically win IA and NH (which would be easy) and NV, which should vault him to a second or first place finish in SC, and then seal the deal on Super Tuesday.

Depends on who he's running against but that would be the path of least resistance.

[DrScholl]

Stuff the ballot boxes.

[Medal506]

None, he'll get torn apart by Kamala Harris and/or Cory Booker. If Manchin runs, he shouldn't even try.

This man lost a primary to the least popular politician in the country by millions of votes and almost one thousand delegates. He's not that strong.

This guy who lost the nomination to a woman who has a 57 percent unfavorable who then went on to lose the general election to a guy who at one point had a 70 percent unfavorable rating has absolutely no chance to the nomination

[YE]

The ruling class of the Democratic Party is fractured (see the reports about internal conflict between Clintonworld and Obamaland and their preferences for 2020) and is unlikely to unite in time to anoint a  nominee like they did with Clinton last year. There's no one in the Democratic Party with the stature to prevent him form winning the nomination next time around except maybe Warren.

I doubt Sanders runs if Warren also runs.

[Lord Admirale]

The ruling class of the Democratic Party is fractured (see the reports about internal conflict between Clintonworld and Obamaland and their preferences for 2020) and is unlikely to unite in time to anoint a  nominee like they did with Clinton last year. There's no one in the Democratic Party with the stature to prevent him form winning the nomination next time around except maybe Warren.

I doubt Sanders runs if Warren also runs.

Friends run against each other frequently. Fred Thompson and John McCain are friends, and they ran against each other in 2008.

[Xing]

God, the salt on this thread...

Anyway, his path would be retaining most or close to all of his supporters, and improving his numbers among minorities, particularly blacks. If he can get more like 30-35% in the Deep South, rather than 15-25%, it's not that hard to see how he could win the nomination.

[_]

Sanders Path to the nomination is just like Shadows' Sex Life.

Non-Existent

[Lord Admirale]

God, the salt on this thread...

Anyway, his path would be retaining most or close to all of his supporters, and improving his numbers among minorities, particularly blacks. If he can get more like 30-35% in the Deep South, rather than 15-25%, it's not that hard to see how he could win the nomination.

African-American voters are a strong demographic, and judging by their choice in 2016, it's obvious that Sanders doesn't resonate well with them.

I wouldn't say there is much salt, but a lot of Atlasians are realizing that Bernie Sanders isn't that great...

[Kamala]

He has no path since black people will never vote for him no matter how much he parades Kiler Mike around.

But Nina Turner!

[Holmes]

He has no path since black people will never vote for him no matter how much he parades Kiler Mike around.

I think you raise a good point in thst his team absolutely sucked in 2016 and for him to be completely viable in 2020, he needs to completely change it up. Completely ignoring the south was inexcusable and I'm sure he's learned that lesson. He's visited some southern states recently but not as much as the Rust Belt and Appalachia.

[DrScholl]

The ruling class of the Democratic Party is fractured (see the reports about internal conflict between Clintonworld and Obamaland and their preferences for 2020) and is unlikely to unite in time to anoint a  nominee like they did with Clinton last year. There's no one in the Democratic Party with the stature to prevent him form winning the nomination next time around except maybe Warren.

I doubt Sanders runs if Warren also runs.

Friends run against each other frequently. Fred Thompson and John McCain are friends, and they ran against each other in 2008.

Sanders and Warren are not friends.

[_]

He can't.  Get over it you fat NEETs, you're obsessing over a 76 year old socialist Jew from Vermont who's only relevant because he "almost" beat Hillary Clinton.

[TheSaint250]

I hope he gets crushed.

[Rookie Yinzer]

He has no path since black people will never vote for him no matter how much he parades Kiler Mike around.

Turnout dropped DRAMATICALLY even with the first black president begging black voters to coalesce around Hillary who has been in the black community for years but the senator from Whitesville, Whitemont will energize the black base? The same man who said racial inequality will be remedied by breaking up big banks? LMAO.

Also how will he explain why he tried to end the first black president's tenure in disgrace with a primary? Mind you, said president is the only candidate who managed to get black turnout above that of whites.

[Lord Admirale]

I hope he gets crushed.

It's guaranteed, in both the primary and/or general.