ND-Club for Growth (R): Schmidt +4 against Heitkamp

[The Other Castro]

Kelly Schmidt - 48%
Heidi Heitkamp - 44%

Poll for Club for Growth conducted by WPA Intelligence.

http://cdn1.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/WPAi_CFG-ND-SEN-Poll_170914.pdf

[_]

*doubt*

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

These sorts of numbers popping up only show that this is indeed a Toss-Up race, with perhaps a slight edge to Heitkamp.

[UncleSam]

The leading questions in this poll make it basically not valid - if you lead with 'Has X done enough to deserve re-election' that's already giving a very anti-incumbent mood, then mentioning ObamaCare as the one issue on the survey.

A four point deficit is actually pretty decent given these factors, but at the same time this does highlight one thing I've been saying: Heitkamp is and will always be vulnerable, and can't ever really be better than a Lean favorite given the hue of her state (kind of like the reverse Larry Hogan, except Hogan is in local government and so can more easily take liberal stances without losing his base).

I've always thought this was tilt D (not Likely D, as some have said here) and this would more or less bear that out. Haven't heard of Schmidt before though, I wonder if A. She commissioned this poll and B. She is angling to get into this race given Cramer's perceived (and real) weaknesses. Have to imagine a newer face would have better odds of defining the race in terms of issues like healthcare.

This might(?) have been conducted before Trump appeared with Heitkamp publicly though, right? That might give Heitkamp a bump (though whether it will remotely matter come 2018 is anyone's guess).

[Webnicz]

FAke pOll!

[Cactus Jack]

Even if this poll isn't a load of gas, it's a bad look when a Republican is only up by four in a blatant Republican internal.

[Pericles]

North Dakota will be a close race. The idea Heitkamp is Safe, especially at this  point,  is absurd.

[Ebsy]

Not sure this is a real pollster. Doesn't have any record.

[The Other Castro]

Not sure this is a real pollster. Doesn't have any record.

It appears to be a legitimate pollster used by Republicans for internal polling.

[NewYorkExpress]

Looks like a GOP internal, but even if it is, it's bad for Heitkamp that she's behind this early, especially against someone no one's heard of.

She's more likely to lose than McCaskill (I just don't see Missouri voters electing Hawley after two years as Attorney General) Brown (Mandel is a horribly weak candidate) or Nelson (While Rick Scott is strong candidate, Nelson has been surviving challenges like this for many years now).

[Ebsy]

Not sure this is a real pollster. Doesn't have any record.

It appears to be a legitimate pollster used by Republicans for internal polling.

Can anyone scare up some of their previous results?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

North Dakota will be a close race. The idea Heitkamp is Safe, especially at this  point,  is absurd.

[jamestroll]

Looks Republican friendly.

Also the state is so small that people know she is actually liberal but on the other hand she does seem to have a personal touch and can do so called retail politics very well.

Like McCaskill I believe her chances are way underrated and they are essentially being asked to win at this point. 

[krazen1211]

Great poll!

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'd expect ND to be hard to get an accurate poll from, considering its population is mostly spread out. In 2012, most pundits gave the senate race a final rating of leans R, iirc.

[Xing]

Of course polls showing Heitkamp down 4 are junk, but polls showing McCaskill down by a similar margin are evidence that she's 110% DOA. I wouldn't be surprised if this poll is somewhat biased against Heitkamp, but I really don't in any way buy that she's safe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've been saying it all along, Lean R now.

[Skye]

Crap poll. Still a Tossup though.