Southeast research poll, Alabama: Moore+16

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.

LOL

Aside from people who vote for him in the runoff, there is no love for Moore in the state. And 50 or 52 percent of runoff voters is not a majority of likely GE voters.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.

LOL

Aside from people who vote for him in the runoff, there is no love for Moore in the state. And 50 or 52 percent of runoff voters is not a majority of likely GE voters.

The absolute highest ceiling for Jones vs Moore in GE this december is a 55-45 Moore victory. Frankly, I think that it will be near 58-42 Moore, but I would not be at all surprised if Moore broke 60% in the GE this december.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.

LOL

Aside from people who vote for him in the runoff, there is no love for Moore in the state. And 50 or 52 percent of runoff voters is not a majority of likely GE voters.

You can't really believe that

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd like to remind everyone that Moore received a paltry 52% of the vote in his last supreme court race, while Romney broke 60%. This idea you have that he will tar and feather Jones is pretty silly.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And the Moore campaign stumbles again: https://www.iagreetosee.com/portfolio/roy-moore-hanging-out-with-alan-keyes/

[Fudotei]

In fairness, the last time Moore was up for election, he only won by 52% in a strangely close race against Robert Vance.

https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_judicial_elections,_2012

I have no idea if that's a benchmark for AL-SEN 2017 considering that's like using "Hawley ran past Trump, he'll beat McCaskill in a landslide" logic. But it's not impossible for Moore to encounter some problems with Jones. It's just Likely R at that point.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

And the Moore campaign stumbles again: https://www.iagreetosee.com/portfolio/roy-moore-hanging-out-with-alan-keyes/

Not really a stumble in a GOP primary.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And the Moore campaign stumbles again: https://www.iagreetosee.com/portfolio/roy-moore-hanging-out-with-alan-keyes/

Not really a stumble in a GOP primary.

Holding a fundraiser with a Never-Trumper is a stumble.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

And the Moore campaign stumbles again: https://www.iagreetosee.com/portfolio/roy-moore-hanging-out-with-alan-keyes/

Not really a stumble in a GOP primary.

Holding a fundraiser with a Never-Trumper is a stumble.

The GOP voters have a very little attention span. All you have to do is wave a shiny object infront of them (Talk about getting rid of the mexicans, Obama wasn't born here) and they will totally forget about it.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.

LOL

Aside from people who vote for him in the runoff, there is no love for Moore in the state. And 50 or 52 percent of runoff voters is not a majority of likely GE voters.

The absolute highest ceiling for Jones vs Moore in GE this december is a 55-45 Moore victory. Frankly, I think that it will be near 58-42 Moore, but I would not be at all surprised if Moore broke 60% in the GE this december.

I honestly think it's impossible to predict the numbers for this. Turnout in the first round was dismal. I suppose Jones could pull an upset if Moore is seen as a shoo-in, therefore depressing the Republican base, and the D base is energized enough to turn out.

In fairness, the last time Moore was up for election, he only won by 52% in a strangely close race against Robert Vance.

And Vance doesn't appear to have had widespread name recognition statewide. While he did have a good home base in the Birmingham metro, he also did well in the Huntsville and Mobile metros too.

[Gustaf]

I don't understand why anyone would expect a Moore landslide in the GE. He's clearly not popular beyond the GOP base and is fairly extreme so he's unlikely to run ahead of generic R. Since Alabama is fairly inelastic he might not run way behind either, but like 60%+ doesn't seem super likely?

[Doimper]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.

Doubt it. Moore seems popular in Alabama and he's won statewide elections before (52% vs Bob Vance in 2012) -- especially considering Moore's getting better funding/support now and the Trump momentum is stronger than Romney's downballot support. Is he Richard Shelby? No, but he's still the favorite (55/45 margin?)

Bob Vance did well, considering his only qualification was his refrigeration business.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.

Doubt it. Moore seems popular in Alabama and he's won statewide elections before (52% vs Bob Vance in 2012) -- especially considering Moore's getting better funding/support now and the Trump momentum is stronger than Romney's downballot support. Is he Richard Shelby? No, but he's still the favorite (55/45 margin?)

Bob Vance did well, considering his only qualification was his refrigeration business.

His father was a famous judge in Alabama who was killed in a mail bomb.

[Badger]

Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.

Like half of the Republicans in Congress have no-exceptions abortion positions and almost all (I would guess) are either "no exceptions" or "life of the mother" (which is technically impossible anyway, so it is the same thing).  That's not an extreme position at all.

Whatever you have to tell yourself to sleep at night.

[Badger]

And the Moore campaign stumbles again: https://www.iagreetosee.com/portfolio/roy-moore-hanging-out-with-alan-keyes/

That's more of a stumble by the Strange campaign. Attacking Moore for having a speaker criticizing Trump as not dedicated enough to conservative values? That's going to chase many voters away from Moore?

[Fudotei]

Alan Keyes isn't conservative enough anymore?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The mission of this whole primary process has been "Show yourself as being closer to Trump than everyone else.". I just don't see having a Never-Trumper fundraise for you as being something that contributes to that goal. And yes, I grant that if Strange wins, there's no one event that you can point to that allowed him to pull through. But Moore's Aleppo moments on DACA and on National Right to Work, and this fundraiser, and probably some other stumble or three he makes in the next 16 days, could and should come together in a way that allows Strange to pull through. Of course, it will be a 52-48 or 51-49 win for Mr. Strange.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The mission of this whole primary process has been "Show yourself as being closer to Trump than everyone else.". I just don't see having a Never-Trumper fundraise for you as being something that contributes to that goal. And yes, I grant that if Strange wins, there's no one event that you can point to that allowed him to pull through. But Moore's Aleppo moments on DACA and on National Right to Work, and this fundraiser, and probably some other stumble or three he makes in the next 16 days, could and should come together in a way that allows Strange to pull through. Of course, it will be a 52-48 or 51-49 win for Mr. Strange.

How many predictions do you have to get wrong until self shame kicks in?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The mission of this whole primary process has been "Show yourself as being closer to Trump than everyone else.". I just don't see having a Never-Trumper fundraise for you as being something that contributes to that goal. And yes, I grant that if Strange wins, there's no one event that you can point to that allowed him to pull through. But Moore's Aleppo moments on DACA and on National Right to Work, and this fundraiser, and probably some other stumble or three he makes in the next 16 days, could and should come together in a way that allows Strange to pull through. Of course, it will be a 52-48 or 51-49 win for Mr. Strange.

How many predictions do you have to get wrong until self shame kicks in?

What I have I posted that was actually a prediction since Nov '16? Quote the posts.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the Brooks endorsement going to Moore, Strange is sadly favored to lose.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the Brooks endorsement going to Moore, Strange is sadly favored to lose.

But I thought "establishment Republican" Brooks was going to endorse Strange?

If he knew what was good for him, he would have.

[Coraxion]

With the Brooks endorsement going to Moore, Strange is sadly favored to lose.

But I thought "establishment Republican" Brooks was going to endorse Strange?

I'd like to remind everyone that Moore received a paltry 52% of the vote in his last supreme court race, while Romney broke 60%. This idea you have that he will tar and feather Jones is pretty silly.

Look, I know you despise Moore, but you realize that not everyone in Alabama is a "center-left" voter like you, right? And that Strange is perceived as being corrupt, has ties to the unpopular Bentley administration, is part of the #Establishment and hence not more electable than Moore?

>Wulfric
>center-left

lmao

[GlobeSoc]

With the Brooks endorsement going to Moore, Strange is sadly favored to lose.

But I thought "establishment Republican" Brooks was going to endorse Strange?

I'd like to remind everyone that Moore received a paltry 52% of the vote in his last supreme court race, while Romney broke 60%. This idea you have that he will tar and feather Jones is pretty silly.

Look, I know you despise Moore, but you realize that not everyone in Alabama is a "center-left" voter like you, right? And that Strange is perceived as being corrupt, has ties to the unpopular Bentley administration, is part of the #Establishment and hence not more electable than Moore?

>Wulfric
>center-left

lmao

Wulfric is merely opposed to socialism

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To be completely fair, I'm probably more center right than I am center left